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18 October 2016
REITs
US REIT 3016 Earnings Preview
to $1.01 from $1.08, NAREIT FFO moves to 54c from 63c. and FAD
moves to 58c from 65c. In 2017, core FFO/sh moves to $1.35 from
$1.27, NAREIT FFO moves to $1.23 from $1.19, and FAD moves $1.15
from $1.08.
CONE: We are updating estimates to reflect our expectation of an
earlier exercise of the forward equity sales offering in 2017 and a
modest reduction in rent commencements in 2017. Our 2016
estimates are unchanged. For 2017, our core FFO/sh estimate moves
to $2.95 from $3.01. NAREIT FFO moves to $2.71 from $2.77. FAD
moves to $2.90 from $2.97, and EBITDA moves to $337.7MM from
$345.8MM.
• DLR: We are updating estimates to reflect our expectation of a
delayed exercise for a portion of the forward equity sales offering and
lowering our 2H16 leasing assumptions. Our 2016 Core and NAREIT
FFO/sh estimates are unchanged, while FAD moves to $5.09 from
$5.10. For 2017, Core and NAREIT FFO move to $6.09 from $6.24.
while FAD moves to $5.21 from $5.36.
• FRT: We decrease our 2017 FFO estimate from $6.08 to $6.04 largely
on more conservative development assumptions.
• IRT: We are updating estimates after reviewing the recent 8-K filing
which contained additional debt repayment and share buyback pricing
details. Our 2016 NAREIT FFO/sh moves to 69c from 70c and 2017
moves to 65c from 67c. Our core FFO/sh estimates are also decreasing
by lc to 80c for 2016 and by 2c to 75c for 2017.
• MPW: After updating our model to reflect the Steward deal and
related financing activity, our 2016 norm FFO/sh estimate remains
unchanged at $1.29 (vs. $1.29-$1.33 guidance). Our 2017 norm
FFO/sh moves to $1.39 from $1.32. Our norm FAD/sh estimates move
to 51.17 (from $1.16) in 2016 and to $1.29 (from $1.20) in 2017.
• PGRE: We are updating our model to reflect the One Front Street
acquisition and recent financing activity. Our 2016 NAREIT FFO/sh
estimate moves to 87c from 86c, core FFO moves to 85c from 83c,
and FAD moves to 38c from 36c. Our 2017 NAREIT and core FFO
estimates move to 96c from 89c, and FAD moves to 52c from 46c.
• VNO: We are updating estimates to reflect recently announced
financing activity. Our 2016 FFO/sh estimate moves to $4.88 from
$4.84, while FAD moves to $2.68 from $2.64. For 2017, our FFO
estimate moves to $5.55 from $5.43 while FAD moves to $3.77 from
$3.64.
• VTR: We are updating our model for the recently announced debt
investment to help fund the Ardent operating company merger with
LHP and recent financing activity. Our 3Q16 normalized and NAREIT
FFO/sh estimates are unchanged. Our 2016 norm and NAREIT FFO/sh
estimates are both unchanged at $4.10 and $4.07, respectively. Our
2017 norm. FFO/sh moves to $4.42 from $4.34 and our NAREIT
FFO/sh estimate moves to $4.42 from $4.33, which reflect the new
$700MM debt investment in 1Q17 and additional debt financing
activity in 2H 17.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 55
CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0092982
CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00239166
EFTA01388958
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