Re: Battleground Survey

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an option. We will misread the dynamics by having a biased sample. And in fact, our tracking will be undermined, as different surveys will have different levels of cut off based on how biased they are. Not going to make savings this way. Stan On 2/8/08 12:16 PM, "Tom Matzzie" <[email protected]> wrote: > My thinking on this was because the ballot questions at the end of the > survey are of less use to us already since the Democratic primary will > continue to be in flux. It is already a false read. The termination > question is a concern but we need some cost-savings. > > On Feb 8, 2008 11:59 AM, Stan Greenberg <[email protected]> wrote: >> > >> > Sorry Tom. Strongly don't agree. We will assess the voter file question, >> > though I think there is a cost issue on the sampling across 10 states, but >> > let's see. >> > >> > But a one-sided survey leads strong Republicans and pro-McCain voters to >> > terminate their participation. It completely undermines the sample, giving >> > false reads of where the race is and false read on the shifts. Not just >> > artificial from lack of even-handedness. In fact, you get terminates from >> > people who think this is just politics. So, we're not doing it. Sorry. >> > >> > Stan >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > On 2/8/08 11:54 AM, "Tom Matzzie" <[email protected]> wrote: >> > >> > >> > >> > Hey, I want to throw a methodological curveball into the mix after >> > consulting with some folks. >> > >> > 1. I think we need to select off of the voter file instead of doing >> > RDD. That will give us more ability to go deeper on the analysis >> > later. >> > 2. I think with the uncertainty around the Dem nominee we should drop >> > the balance in the batteries--cut the Obama and HRC batteries. The >> > effect of this will be to exaggerate McCain movement but it will also >> > expose who the hardcore McCain supporters are--people sticking with >> > him under the best of circumstances. So, the survey design would be >> > something like this: opening Qs, McCain ballot and attributes, message >> > and doubts batteries, closing ballot and attributes, demographic >> > questions. >> > >> > This will save us time, money and it will exaggerate results--which is >> > what we need since we didn't since big movements last time. We can >> > also probably cut down to 800 sample across 20-22 mins. >> > >> > Unless there are strong objections from anybody I'd like to move >> > forward with this. >> > >> > On Feb 7, 2008 9:48 PM, Andrew Baumann <[email protected]> wrote: >>> > > >>> > > >>> > > >>> > > >>> > > All, >>> > > >>> > > >>> > > >>> > > Attached please find the draft questionnaire for the battleground >>> survey. >>> > > There are some notes in imbedded in red. Also please note that we have >>> > > tweaked some of the McCain messaging based on Stan's recommendations. >>> > > >>> > > >>> > > >>> > > We are currently scheduled to go into the field on Sunday. If we are to >>> > > keep to that schedule we need to have comments back by early afternoon >>> > > tomorrow. >>> > > >>> > > >>> > > >>> > > The ad is currently timed at 30.5 minutes so we will need to make some >> > cuts. >>> > > >>> > > >>> > > >>> > > We had originally budgeted for this to be a 20 minute survey with a >> > sample >>> > > size of N=1800, but that was assume two remaining candidates. We had >> > this >>> > > budgeted at $85,500. In this survey we just have McCain but we are >>> > > splitting the attacks on him so we still need a relatively large >>> sample. >> > A >>> > > 25 minutes survey (which would keep us from having to cut 10 full >> > minutes) >>> > > at N=1200 would cost $70,800. >>> > > >>> > > >>> > > >>> > > We could get to about 25 minutes with the following cuts: >>> > > >>> > > >>> > > >>> > > Cutting two attributes in the HRC/BHO attributes battery. >>> > > Splitting the McCain attributes so each respondent hears 6 >>> > > Cutting four items from the better jobs batteries (that compare BHO/HRC >> > to >>> > > McCain on issues and attributes) >>> > > Cutting the re-ask of the better jobs batteries >>> > > Cutting the question on which attributes are most important (we can use >>> > > regression modeling to look at this anyway) >>> > > Cutting the questions on which economic issue and which accountability >>> > > issues are most important >>> > > >>> > > >>> > > >>> > > Or we can talk about other options. >>> > > >>> > > >>> > > >>> > > Andrew >>> > > >>> > > >>> > > >>> > > >>> > > >>> > > >>> > > >>> > > Andrew Baumann >>> > > >>> > > Analyst >>> > > >>> > > >>> > > >>> > > 10 G Street NE, Suite 500, Washington, DC 20002 >>> > > >>> > > Phone: 202 478 8300 / Fax: 202 478 8301 >>> > > >>> > > >>> > > >>> > > [email protected] >>> > > >>> > > www.greenbergresearch.com >>> > > >>> > > >>> > > >>> > > >>> > > >>> > > >>> > > >>> > > >> > >> > >