Fwd: Brian Katulis Mideast report

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P17 V16 D3 V11 P24

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Can you print copies of the report for me and Denis. Thanks ---------- Forwarded message ---------- From: "Suzy George" <[email protected]> Date: Jun 16, 2014 10:29 PM Subject: Brian Katulis Mideast report To: "Ben Chang" <[email protected]>, "Fariba Yassaee" < [email protected]>, "Anne Hall" <[email protected]>, "Bill Antholis" <[email protected]>, "Bill Woodward ( [email protected])" <[email protected]>, "[email protected]" <[email protected]>, "Brian Katulis" <[email protected]>, "Bruce Riedel" <[email protected]>, "Caitlin McDonnell" < [email protected]>, "Carol Browner" <[email protected]>, "Carole Hall" <[email protected]>, "Catherine Whitney" < [email protected]>, "Chris Roberts" < [email protected]>, "Dan Benjamin" <[email protected]>, "Daniel Silverberg" <[email protected]>, "Denis McDonough" < [email protected]>, "Derek Chollet" <[email protected]>, "Don Gips ([email protected])" <[email protected]>, "donkerrick" < [email protected]>, "Eryn M. Sepp ([email protected])" < [email protected]>, "Frank Lowenstein" <[email protected]>, "Greg Craig" <[email protected]>, "Jake Sullivan" <[email protected]>, "Jamie Rubin" <[email protected]>, "Jan Stewart" < [email protected]>, "Jeff Smith" <[email protected]>, "Jeremy Bash" <[email protected]>, "Jessica Lewis" <[email protected]>, "Jim Miller - Department of Defense ([email protected])" < [email protected]>, "Jim O'Brien" <[email protected]>, "Joanna Nicoletti ([email protected])" <[email protected]>, "Joe Cirincione" <[email protected]>, "John Podesta" < [email protected]>, "Julianne Smith" <[email protected]>, "Ken Lieberthal" <[email protected]>, "Kurt Campbell" < [email protected]>, "Laura Huber" <[email protected]>, "Leon Fuerth" <[email protected]>, "Maida Stadtler" <[email protected]>, "Marcel Lettre" <[email protected]>, "Mariah Sixkiller ([email protected])" <[email protected]>, "Marisa DeAngelis" <[email protected]>, "Martin Indyk" <[email protected]>, "Michele Flournoy" < [email protected]>, "Pat Griffin" <[email protected]>, "Rich Verma" <[email protected]>, "Rob Malley" <[email protected]>, "Samuel Berger" <[email protected]>, "Steve Ricchetti" < [email protected]>, "Strobe Talbott" <[email protected]>, "Susan Rice" <[email protected]>, "Tara Sonenshine" <[email protected]>, "Theodore Waddelow" <[email protected]>, "Tim Roemer" < [email protected]>, "Tom Daschle" <[email protected]>, "Tom Donilon" <[email protected]>, "Tom Downey" <[email protected]>, "Tommy Ross" <[email protected]>, "Toni Verstandig" < [email protected]>, "Tony Blinken" <[email protected]>, "Veronica Pollack" <[email protected]>, "Vikram Singh" < [email protected]>, "Wendy Sherman" <[email protected]> Cc: New report by Brian Katulis > > > > A new era of extremism, sectarianism, and competition between regional > powers requires the United States to update its regional strategy. > > > > > http://americanprogress.org/issues/security/report/2014/06/16/91809/u-s-middle-east-policy-at-a-time-of-regional-fragmentation-and-competition > > > > > The ongoing fragmentation in Iraq and Syria is the latest episode in a > series of events that is shaking the foundations of today’s Middle East. > The region has entered a fluid period of transition involving the growing > power of non-state actors, including new Islamist extremist groups, at a > time of increased competition for influence among the key countries in the > region. > > For decades, the United States has grappled with formulating a Middle East > strategy that advances both its interests and its values. Under President > Barack Obama, the top U.S. priorities in the Middle East have included > preventing a terrorist attack on the homeland; stopping Iran from obtaining > a nuclear weapon; ending the Iraq War; maintaining a secure flow of energy > from the region; and trying to broker Arab-Israeli peace. > > The United States has struggled to define its position since the Arab > uprisings in 2011, which sparked a new era of competition among the leading > powers in the region. The role and status of Islamists such as the Muslim > Brotherhood, which rose to power after the uprisings in some Arab > countries, have been central in this intraregional struggle. Also, violent > Salafi jihadists such as the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham, or ISIS, > seek to break down national borders and establish an Islamic state by > force. This report, based on field research conducted by the Center for > American Progress in multiple countries during the past year, analyzes the > current strategic environment and outlines lessons learned that should > inform U.S. policy. Those lessons include: > > - *The 2011 Arab uprisings sparked a regional competition in a new > “Middle East cold war.”* The leading countries of the Middle East and > North Africa are engaged in an intense, multipolar, and multidimensional > struggle for influence and power. This competition goes beyond Shia-Sunni > sectarian divisions and involves traditional tools of power projection—such > as military aid and economic assistance—as well as new forms of power > projection, including direct investments in media outlets, non-state > actors, and political movements. The region’s wealthier, more politically > stable states compete with each other by proxy—and in some cases, > directly—on the ground in poorer and politically polarized states. This > competition has taken on many features of a cold war: different sides > engaged in proxy battles across the region using multiple means of > influence. > > > - *The status of Islamist movements is central to this regional > competition.* The Muslim Brotherhood’s empowerment and subsequent > removal from power in Egypt has been a main event and central to this > regional struggle. Some states such as Qatar and Turkey back the Muslim > Brotherhood, while others such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab > Emirates, or UAE, oppose it. Another new dynamic is the rise of extremist > Islamist groups that have challenged the Al Qaeda movement. New political > openings, as well as ongoing conflicts such as the civil war in Syria, have > enabled a range of political Islamist groups, including the ultraorthodox > Salafists, to affect politics in countries such as Egypt and Tunisia and > fostered a strand of Islamist extremist groups that has emerged in Syria > and Iraq. The regional contest over the status of political Islamists has > broad reach; it has contributed to disarray within the Syrian opposition, > influenced relations among different Palestinian factions, and affected > competition among the various armed groups in Libya. > > > - *The United States remains the dominant military power in the > region but lacks sufficient diplomatic, political, and economic tools to > influence regional political trends.* The new and still unfolding > regional dynamics limit the effectiveness of a U.S. policy that maintains a > heavy reliance on traditional tools of power, such as the military and > intelligence. The current U.S. policy approach lacks a nimble and effective > ability to engage multiple centers of power in the region politically and > economically in strategies that emphasize political pluralism and > prosperity. The Obama administration’s engagement with political Islamist > organizations such as the Muslim Brotherhood created confusion in the > region about U.S. policy priorities and values. The U.S. response to the > Arab uprisings and the new Middle East cold war has been uneven and the > United States has often appeared as little more than a bystander. > > The major changes underway in regional power dynamics point to a need to > make U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East and North Africa more adept at > understanding and responding to political currents in a way that reflects > both U.S. core security interests and values. Simply focusing on questions > of how many troops are stationed in a particular country for what period of > time or how much bilateral security assistance the United States gives to a > particular country is too narrow and inadequate to deal with the historical > changes sweeping the region and upending its political balance. > > A wider range of state actors are seeking to advance their interests and > values across the region, and the regional landscape now includes a number > of non-state actors that have broader reach and impact than they did in > previous eras. The United States will not be able to dictate or control > events, but many in the region still examine what the United States says > and does very closely. Most of its key governments take active steps to > shape the trajectory of U.S. policy. The United States should make the most > of these diplomatic engagements to craft a wiser engagement policy that > seeks to isolate and defeat extremist ideologies in the ongoing battle of > ideas. > > *Brian Katulis is a Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress. > Peter Juul is a Policy Analyst at the Center.* > > >