EFTA00615279.pdf

POLIO AFGHANISTAN !PI INTERNATIONAL PEACE INSTITUTE BACKGROUND BRIEFS FOR BMGF SECURITY AND ACCESS HIGHLIGHTS STRATEGY SESSION: AFGHANISTAN 1. Drivers of insecurity and conflict NB: Because of the sensitive nature of (ii) a "safe passage letter" issued by • The explicit Afghan Taliban the subject matter, information the Afghan Taliban should be approval of the polio eradication denoted with an asterisk (*) is obtained; and programme is a major reason for confidential and can be elaborated the success of polio eradication in (iii) no foreigners should be part of upon in oral briefings with IPI. country. the health team. It should be noted at the start that as So far all sides have kept to this of now, the polio eradication bargain. • The upcoming elections, changing programme in Afghanistan is It is equally clear that there is political alliances and withdrawal achieving far better results than its misreporting on anti-polio coverage in of NATO troops, will worsen the far larger, more expensive counterpart in Pakistan. Leaving Afghanistan, though on a smaller situation. aside the disparity in scale (landmass scale than in its neighbor to the south and population), a major factor and east, including corruption and poor accounting.* • The unpredictability in the responsible for Afghanistan's intensity, scope and magnitude of success is the following: expected developments will lead to The Afghan Taliban, deterioration in a well-functioning under the authority of polio eradication programme. Mullah Omar, have issued explicit approval of and support for the polio • A further challenge will be the eradication programme, military situation, in particular the with the following withdrawal of the NATO/ISAF conditions: forces. (i) each anti-polio campaign in areas under Taliban control or influence should be coordinated by the Afghan authorities with the "shadow" Taliban authorities in advance; CONFIDENTIAL- DO NOT CIRCULATE EFTA00615279 POLIO AFGHANISTAN Trends Prospects for 2014 & 2015 IPI is of the view that the elections, Afghan Pashtun families in the scheduled to be held in early April, southern and eastern Afghan and the outcome (or postponement provinces which border on Pakistan, Recommendations of the elections) will lead to will flee into Pakistan's tribal and increasing insecurity and turbulence, adjacent areas, if (as is likely) there • BMGF should work closely with its already in are clashes national and international evidence. between Afghan interlocutors to prepare scenarios Political and security forces for continued delivery of anti-polio health and militias and drops, especially in the areas authorities, at the Afghan bordering Pakistan. the center but Taliban and other • BMGF should request the Afghan especially at militant and central authorities to coordinate the provincial, jihadi groups, as emergency plans (this will have to district and well as Pakistani be broached very delicately as lower levels, militants and Kabul's position on everything is will be far too jihadis supporting that "it's not a problem!"). preoccupied the latter. with the elections, political alliances • BMGF should ask its interlocutors Since the withdrawal of NATO forces of convenience, switching of in both Pakistan and Afghanistan will not take place overnight, it is loyalties, and deals being made and to strengthen anti-polio drops likely that NATO/ISAF bases and broken all the time, to pay the delivery at all border crossings (as pockets of control will see combat sustained attention that polio many people cross both ways via and attacks. eradication requires.* unofficial crossings as via official The withdrawal date of US troops is ones). The Afghan Taliban see their still up in the air, with President patience paying off. Their Karzai refusing to sign a Bilateral spokesperson has declared that Security Agreement with the US anyone who is a candidate, or who unless certain conditions are met votes, will be a target. (not those reported in the media).* Hence while the US wished to have Impact this signed prior to troop withdrawal, this will probably not happen. With unpredictability in the intensity, scope and magnitude of The US withdrawal, the largest the developments identified above, contingent in Afghanistan, will be it is expected that the present, fairly staggered over time. It is certain well-functioning polio eradication that between io,000 and 30,000 US programme will suffer massively. troops (as trainers, counter- This negative impact will not only be terrorism and counter-insurgency the result of insecurity and fighting personnel) will stay on beyond the within Afghanistan, but also of an withdrawal, in 6 to 8 US bases. interruption in the regular anti-polio campaigns, as families flee across porous borders. CONFIDENTIAL- DO NOT CIRCULATE EFTA00615280