EFTA01367377.pdf

31 May 2015 Integrated Oil US Integrated Oils North Sea The North Sea has been synonymous in recent years with mature, Non-OPEC decline, and for good reason. Since its peak production in 2000, North Sea production has steadily declined from -6 MMboe/d to current production levels of 2.5 MMboe/d, or an average decline rate of 6% YoY. This happened despite steadily increasing capex levels. Despite multi-year trends, we expect North Sea production to hold broadly flat through 2016 as several growth projects are brought on-stream and significant re-development spending over the last couple of years softens the decline of several key fields. The longer- term outlook is most strongly correlated with the successful (i.e. timely) development of the massive Johan Sverdrup field and the management of declines across the broader mature asset base. On our base case assumes declines of 12%, and estimate a 1% revision to the assumed decline to result in a swing of - 125 Mb/d to our 2017 outlook. [Figure 115: North Sea Production Outlook, 2014-2020e {MM.° 3000 Figure 116: Production by type (area chart of onshore vs. shallow vs, deepwater (Mbicl) 3000 2500 2500 2000 2000 1500 1500 1000 1000 500 500 o • 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 a Shallow water (Cony) • Deepwater (Cony) •Base Growth Bbls Sin Dane,* &rat laths /EA Sourer Douro* 1:48. NOSMoots lEA j I Figure 1177 Crude volume growth outlook by project status (Mid) 3500 1 Figure 1187 2017 Production Swing (Bear vs. Bull) of 1-240 Mb/d 2820 - 2510 3200 2435 2283 ZOO too 1500 - poco • 1000 1800 1620 500 140) - 0 2014 2015 2003 MI 7 2016 2019 2020 128) • esumOne m..... Groat. a Cnovewn Ants —Under oeyee080.8 awe meet* Development 1000 Oro Elm Case Ileet Sue Dui .6m0 688‘2 shit ON growl, pgict• • 1% • 4 II 0•31n8 DIN San* Daises Bet Hs3.edliontenAr. /EA Swot Deux**aft KOS Madlessm. '54 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 59 CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0058910 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00205094 EFTA01367377