EFTA01385545.pdf

Deutsche Bank Risks ■ Royal Dutch Shell Plc - RDSa.L: Risks to the downside are now ■ Vinci - SGEF.PA. Downside risks: worsening of the French/European dominated by Shell's ability to reduce balance sheet debt and reposition the economic situation, particularly its more cyclical component, contracting. Worse business, not least at a time when the company will be targeting material performance in construction projects leading to lower than expected margins. ($30bn) divestments. Divestments aside, project start ups are key - Volatility in the risk-free rate affecting the valuation (higher interest rates having including Gorgon, Prelude and Kashagan. a negative impact particularly in the valuation of infrastructure assets). ■ RWE - RWEG.DE: Key downside risks include a further drop in the value of Unpredictable outcome of potential inorganic growth in particular in the airports RWE's stake in innogy, lower power prices, a carbon tax, lignite closures sector. Unpredictable events like accidents or terror attacks affecting traffic at and higher estimates of the cost of financing long term nuclear, pension and airports and toll roads. other liabilities. ■ Vodafone Group Plc - VOD.L: Risks to our target price being achieved ■ SGS - SGSN.S: Downside risk stems from lower potential structural growth include: 1) Competition from new entrant mobile operators (eg Italy) and/or and less cross selling benefit than we model and less benefit from convergence price discounting by integrated fixed and mobile operators; 2) any maximizing the potential of the company's small scale M&A. Downside risk deterioration in either employment trends or wage growth would reduce also comes from slower China growth and the knock on effect on valuation consumer disposable income available for spending on Vodafone services; and and commodities and less margin gain than we forecast. 3) currency weakness in either UK or EM (Egypt, Turkey. India, South Africa). ■ Shire PLC - SHP.L: Risks include potential impact of new hemophilia therapies, lower growth of the HAE and ADHD franchises and risks of oversupply in the plasma markets. ■ Sophos - SOPH.L: Key risks for Sophos, in our view, include: Sophos may face more competition in IT Security for midmarket companies than we expect; IT Security spending may be negatively impacted by a worsening macro outlook; and customer migration to Cloud may impact Sophos more negatively than we expect. 2.,. 4": CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0086831 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00233015 EFTA01385545