EFTA01458949.pdf

8 December 2016 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity Table of Contents Global Overview Managing with less liquidity 3 US Dollar drag s Europe Note global engine 23 Japan Return to steady recovery trend 32 China Rising challenges to trigger further policy easing 34 Asia (ex Japan) Triple troubles 37 Latin America Still adjusting to low commodity prices 40 Bond Market Strategy Peak policy divergence 42 US Credit US credit feels the pressure of high commodity exposure 49 European Credit Strategy To follow the US or march to its own beat? 51 US Equity Strategy Still low Treasury yields despite Fed hikes to boost S&P PE - Heavy tilts to Health Care & Tech 53 European Equity Strategy 7% upside in 2016 but beware of the risk of a near-term correction 57 FX Strategy Plenty of run left in the USD upswing 59 Commodities Supply adjustment is well underway for oil, not so for the metals 61 Global Asset Allocation The case for normalization 67 Geopolitics The EU's geopolitical crisis eclipses its economic crisis 71 Forecast table Key Economic Forecasts 74 Key Financial Forecasts 76 Long-term Forecasts 77 Contacts 78 Page Deutsche Bank AG/London CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED. R CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0119109 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00265293 EFTA01458949