EFTA01459565.pdf

Monetary Policy Divergence "Two Roads Diverged in a Wood, and I Took the one Less Traveled." Fed Takes off Training Wheels Expect More Volatility reavgnr ts4EEtr.'2 Tightening Cycle # of Day 3-4.99% 5.00.9.99% 10% or More Average of all Pullbacks 4. • .•'\- i,r* 3.64-8.64 147 2 0 -5.2% 12,86-9/87 262 0 3 0 -6.4% 368-2,89 332 1 3 0 -63% 294-2/95 363 1 3 0 -6.0% 699-900 321 0 4 -9.2% an 604-606 729 2 4 0 -5.7% :•‘9;r e.. fr is. • • es? C"—--Average lA• S&P 500 Pullbacks - As the Fed has taken the "training wheels" off the When looking at the most recent tightening U.S. economy, we expect increased volatility. cycles, they last, on average, one year and see at least one S&P 500 pullback of 3-5% and three pullbacks of 5-10%. The only tightening cycle that experienced a more than 10% decline was in 2000. Footnotes Time period is considered a tightening cycle. when the Fed raises rates Footnotes: Chip Bok Editorial Cartoon used with the permission of Chiµ Bok and three or more consecutive times. The tightening cycle is considered over at the last Creators Syndicate. All rights reserved. rate hike. # of days is calendar days. SSP 500 price only. Source: The CartoonistGroup. Deutsche Bank Wealth Management. Source. Bloomberg Finance LP. Deutsche Bank Wealth Management Deutsche Bank Wealth Mnniloement 11 CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0 120060 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00266244 EFTA01459565