EFTA01449282.pdf

28 February 2013 Exchange Rate Perspectives Deutsche Bank El Fig 7: Export volumes have remained below trend Fig 8: Export volume deviations from trend since 2001 strongly correlated with moving average of dollar valwtion L/507kvi Cw.tsina /ionise SO.., 49 16 420 winette0 026 44o,Evoto.Otwor. 00017101010n0 In 41S 020 48 015 410 010 47 006 005 66 000 000 46 005 005 4 10 61 010 415 4.5 Conebion - -04) 016 420 020 025 56 I 1 I Fig 9: A brief end to the dollar upsurge seems to Fig 10: The recent sharp increase in import price have boosted export volume growth inflation has tapered off during the past few months 20 22 4.30 15 • 17 4.40 10 • 12 5• 4.50 0 4.60 -5 .3 -10 4 4.70 -15 -13 —animaVolum -20 4.80 -20 - Impoit Price 0h4) -18 Jan-94 Jan-98 Jan-02 Jan06 Jan-10 Jana. Jan-04 Jan-08 Jan-12 SONY LkeaStream Darrso`t 2.'* nacaSzteato bans to fuer Fig 11: Import price inflation has followed the Fig-12: Import volume growth has generally been dollar highly correlated with US domestic demand growth 25 20 10 20 15 15 10 S 5 5 0 -5 0 7 \ V - ri ll \ -5 -10 -15 -10 -10 •••••••b-nporlVolime -20 -15 -25 US 'Piths) -15 • Impolt Pic' -20 Jan94 Jan-98 Jan-02 Jan46 Jan-10 Jan-94 Jan-98 —1)54981104,marted0rts) Detactewn. DamanFri sonny OgoSat•on Deutsche 84,11 Page 34 Deutsche Bank AG/London CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0104622 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00250806 EFTA01449282