EFTA01461164.pdf

From: Tazia Smith Sent: 11/19/2013 8:58:37 AM To: eevacation maII.com CC: Subject: yen weakness commentary + zero-cost one-touch implementation... IC) Classification: Confidential Good Morning Jeffrey - I found this commentary below of interest, asserting that yen weakness (and Japanese equity strength) will be a result of strength in the US, not a direct result of Abenomics. See what you think. We still like the USDcJPYp zero-cost one touch (indicative levels below). Thoughts? Best Regards, Tazia Forwarded by Tazia Srnithldbrdbcom on 11/182013 11'03 AM -- From. "Taisuke Tanaka. Deutsche Sectsities Inc." < To. Tazia SmitlVdtk , Date: 11/17/2013 10:41PM Subject. DEutsche JApan View on FX - USD/JPY: Sell-entorcing trend Deutsche Securities Inc. - Fixed Income Research DEutsche JApan View on FX - USD/JPY: Self-enforcing trend 18 November 2013 (1 pager 235 kb) Download the complete report When USD/JPY tries 103. market forecast can rise to 110 in 3-6 months The USD/JPY is a good proxy of the US economic recovery. Since the end of the first round of the "Abe market" in late May, the USD/JPY has stagnated along with the wavering outlook for the US economy. With the release of the surprisingly solid US payroll data, the rate has climbed again to the $100 level. Abenomics would be a secondary factor for the USD/JPY. The yen will not weaken unless the US economy strengthens, Japanese stock markets will not rally unless the yen weakens, and Abenomics will not succeed unless the yen weakens and the stock markets rally. Fortunately, we believe the Abe administration will continuously benefit from a robust US upswing in 2014. With the USD/JPY having languished for nearly half a year, the markets had come to anticipate a rate of only around 4105 for end-2014, a considerably cautious view. Market forecasts tend to be simply current picture = present rate + recent market momentum. The rebound in the USD/JPY to $100 is spurring an upturn in the average medium-term market forecast. Once the markets approach the Mav high of $103.74. a 3-6 month forecast of $110 will no longer seem so far fetched. The CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED. R. GRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0 123017 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00269201 EFTA01461164