EFTA01367355.pdf

31 May 2015 Integrated Oil US Integrated Oils Other Risks to the Outlook Global oil demand and Decline Rates Our base case assumes global product demand growth of 1.2 Mb/d in 2016 and 2017. To date in 2015, demand has generally surprised to the upside, with gasoline demand growth in the US (+2% YoY) stronger than anticipated, while Europe and Asia have also shown surprisingly robust growth. 10%+ incremental upside to YoY product demand growth results in a -+100 mbpd increase in the 2017 implied call on US onshore crude growth. On decline rates, we assume an average global decline rate of 1/4%/yr. We estimate a swing of 150 mbpd in the 2017 implied call on US onshore crude growth call for each 1/4% change in modeled decline rates (ex-US onshore and OPEC and compounded from 2015+). 'Figure 59: 2017 Call on US Crude Onshore Growth (YoY) 'Figure 60: 2020 Call on US Crude Onshore Growth (YciY) 9C0 ICOO I 8° ) € 003 SOO I b g 6 0)) 303 XO WO 0 I SW .1a14. Re I* Moldal One Odes Sean* DancIft ant, nod Mann /£4 ease edl • 10%M to VW* Clean Groan Yol'Ona nand a th. be:~ 2017 W O 000 0:0 0 San Dena fin • In 600 enr RI*b MOSI010 OW.* Ras nanneeola a I In* *IS% Arn lo YoY Orin E9 Ita Cant n CMJMa //wawa* 2020 CAI eP Goal col LIS °Wry fradctob, - Db 2026 US Onshom pool-crib, Resnt sand aon eau we US Onionnotaion - 2019 C Oca LAS Onn Froesten &vont, Permed Sanitises ca.t ippon se Me /news wont,* waScollymaleiedour eh (*Snow enlaratocks US *IMO. envenom co Mon wan we Ain spnon mono at an.. riga andexclas US evilerat re OPEC teo0a6k0 adiele two Moab oniOPECloads» *a can itrodo Figure 61: A +5% premium to '17 demand growth Figure 62: A +1/4 0,10 revision to modeled Non-OPEC increases implied onshore crude growth by -50 mbpd decline rates increases implied onshore crude growth by -150 mbpd in 2017 over our base case • • • • -10% 10% 30% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% San Dane. Sy* Moe AM0lonse. IEI E61 4 Y0Y CrownIs calcubred SeIvied 2077 W San Doan Ora Moe naliont 114 E(A. VOY Grow", d cabAr40 as me v‘amPo 2017 Can on us Gigot Ottascrico - Dee 202605 Galva ttootakn Rotates romccitst0 *ova raw al US Onshore Frofurnon- Dee 2016 US Ortnartprectcotee nee romarce0 Oak,.roes one iraelos So $0 ropers wo Ma sprokary~en wa .0+ Marva and urokotes US Ortillat on nom to mon Aqaba St ha* weal05*inn/ at 01a no an send US ant* erci OPEC greacoon Asa Wen, Meals Oro OPECIYOPACIXO 411041 &Yen *WO Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 3/ CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0058888 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00205072 EFTA01367355