EFTA01459717.pdf

Deutsche Bank Research Europe Economy' Date 5 February 2016 Whim, Stn,tf.ttt (3 A Chief Economist Senior Economist Focus Europe 1+44120 754.52087 (+44i 20 764-74900 [email protected] [email protected] Dark clouds, no storm yet Dark clouds have been gathering since the beginning of the year, but we do 'Research Team not see a storm yet. Europe is dealing with an external demand shock and a deflationary shock. Both threaten inflation, but the latter boosts domestic EkintExi demand. Hence, external headwinds have not yet been sufficient for us to Marc de Muizon revise down our central expectation for euro-area growth, but the risks are [email protected] rising. That said, the inflation outlook has clearly deteriorated. Peter Sklorov [email protected] A modest weakening of the euro area data, tighter financial conditions as well as a more dovish Fed, BoE and BoJ increase the potential for a more Marco String. aggressive ECB easing. (i) We continue to see a deposit rate cut as a near [email protected] certainty, but it won't be enough. (ii) Hence, we persist with our call for an Mark Wall increase in the synergies between the negative deposit rate, QE and TLTROs. [email protected] (iii) Furthermore, we think that data will have to surprise on the upside to avoid UKlSaandroa via a temporary acceleration of the monthly QE purchases. George Buckley The euro area final January PMIs confirmed the softer flash reading. Despite [email protected] the monthly decline, all the major activity indices remain consistent with Contrail L mow" ongoing recovery. The negative news was the slightly larger decline than Caroline Grady before in the prices indices, adding to ECB concerns over low inflation. SIREN- caroline.gra*/Cadb.com Momentum was broadly unchanged this week. SIREN-Surprise remained close Inflation Strategvitconnenres to its 15 month low. Markus Haider The euro area January core HICP inflation print was a positive at the margin, markus.heklen9db.com suggesting that some of the loss in momentum at the end of last year may have been due to temporary factors. Still, progress this year is expected to be very slow, and headline inflation may well stay around zero until the summer. !Table of contents This week's draft UK/EU renegotiation looks set to pave the way for a UK referendum on EU membership in June. We expect the UK to remain in, but Dark clouds, no storm yet Page 03 polls suggest a non-negligible risk of exit. So far, the EU issue has had little Euro PMIs: softer but still solid start to Page 09 impact on monetary policy, nor should it in our central forecast. Weaker 2016 growth and inflation have increased market fears of a near-term easing. But if Spain update: challenging negotiations Page 12 the BoE's generally optimistic medium-term forecasts prove correct, then the next move is still likely to be a hike. Ireland General Election 2016 Preview Page 13 Italy's bad bankis): not enough, but it Page 14 We also include links to three recent reports: an updated assessment of the helps possible coalition combinations in Spain; a preview of the coming election in Ireland where another periphery economy is heading for parliamentary Euroland inflation Page 15 fragmentation and possible minority government; and an analysis of the Italian UK: Markets still see rate.cut risk Page 17 bad banks proposal which while positive is far from being a game-changer. UK: Referendum campaign starts here Page 19 [Risk of Brexit rises - if you believe the polls SIREN: Euro-macro surname remain Page 21 negative 55 1 Should the United Kingdom reran a member of the European Urven et leave the European Unon? Rate Views Page 23 50 45 1 r t./VM\ A 40 4 35 - \,••• "/ —Leave Reman in n 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Sant Miaow,aerie Bent Deutsche Bank AG/London DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 124/04/2015. CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0120357 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00266541 EFTA01459717