EFTA01385436.pdf

3 January 2018 HY Corporate Credit HY Multi Sector.Media. Cable & Satellite Online holiday shopping expected to grow I -V:4) Yoy In aggregate, online holiday spending is expected to increase 14% YoY to $107 billion as Adobe expects 18 days with more than $2.0 billion in online sales this holiday season, which is more than double the number from last year. Deloitte expects online sales to represent 11% of total holiday sales between November and January. Notably, First Data reported e-commerce represented 29% of sales dollars over the two day Black Friday/Thanksgiving period, up from 25% last year and 14% in 2014. Economic backdrop remains positive for U.S. consumer Unemployment rate continues to improve; hopeful for AHE growth Unemployment is at a very healthy 4.1% and expected to improve further. Please see 08 Economist Additionally, while average hourly earnings has not been as inflationary initially Torsion Slok's latest al expected, DB's economists believe risks to wage pressure are to the upside. In their view, the U.S. economy is now operating at or near full capacity, which CStalitaterSAULINak for could result in inflation pressure. additional detail. Figure 4: AHE could benefit from... !Figure 5: ...U.S. economy operating at full capacity 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 7.5% 2.5% 5.5% • 2.0% 3.5% 1.5% liniViortsrtortst Unemployment Rata (LA) Avg. Hourly Earnings (RA) Source Derasole EWA SLA Lticarberg froeneeLP Savory Detach*Sink 690 SEA Hear Ana5fia Financial assets and home prices continue to move higher Financial asset performance has been robust YTD as the S&P 500 is up more than 20% through December l81 . Additionally, home prices continued their upward rise, which we expect to persist in 2018, though we are cognizant Republican led tax reform proposals could present downside risks for certain markets with relatively higher state and local taxes. [Figure 6: S&P 500 forecast to rise further in 2018 Figure 7: While housing continued to strengthen 220 152 154 1500 120 laao 105 500 4 0' 0' 0' 0' 0/ 0' ora oft of Noolil 110.90 No..01 110..3 110.05 Newe7 No.•430 110v•11 N0,13 No•15 550 —54P envelope C5.041illst V.5 1151101.1Homo Pckie I A hOgio Son Orucoree Ore. Onsocters loance LP ?mere Owesof• So* Ol000tep Annoy LP Page 162 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. GRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0086721 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00232905 EFTA01385436