EFTA00662171.pdf

From: Gregory Brown To: undisclosed-recipients:; Bee: [email protected] Subject: Greg Brown's Weekend Reading and Other Things.... 04/19/2015 Date: Sun, 19 Apr 2015 07:09:10 +0000 DEAR FRIEND The End of White Christian America is Approaching [image: Inline image 1] In the on-line news magazine Altemet, Brooklyn writer and journalist Amanda Mancotte recently wrote *— The end of white Christian America is nigh: Why the country's youth are abandoning religious conservatism -* As White Christians are now a minority in 19 states and America's growing racial diversity only tells part of the story. New data from the American Values Atlas shows that while Caucasians continue to be the majority in all but 4 states in the country, white Christians are the minority in a whopping 19 states. And, nationwide, Americans who identify as Protestant are now in the minority for the first time ever, clocking in at a mere 47 percent of Americans and falling. The most obvious reason for this change is growing racial diversity. Most Americans still identify as Christian, but *"Christian"* is a group that is less white and less Protestant than it has been at any time in history. The massive growth in Hispanic Catholics, in particular, has been a major factor in this shift in the ethnic and religious identity of this country. White Catholics used to outnumber Hispanic Catholics 3 to 1 in the 2000s, but now it's only by a 2 to 1 margin. But another major reason religious diversity is outpacing the growth of racial/ethnic diversity is largely due to the explosive growth in non-belief among Americans. One in five Americans now identifies as religiously unaffiliated. In 13 states, the *"nones"* are the largest religious group. Non-religious people now equal Catholics in number, and their proportion is likely to grow dramatically, as young people are by far the most non-religious group in the country. This isn't some kind of side effect of their youth, either. As Adam Lee has noted, the millennial generation is becoming less religious as they age. These changes explain the modem political landscape as well as any economic indicator. While not all white Christians are conservative, these changing numbers definitely suggest that conservative Christians are rapidly losing their grip on power. And while some non-white Christians EFTA00662171 are conservative, their numbers are not making up for what the Christian right is losing. And whether conservative leaders are aware of the exact numbers or not, it's clear that they sense that change is in the air. Just by speaking to young people, turning on your TV, or reading the Internet, you can sense the way the country is lurching away from conservative Christian values and towards a more liberal, secular outlook. And conservative Christians aren't taking these changes well at all. To look at the Christian right now is to see a people who know they are losing power and are desperately trying to reassert dominance before it's lost altogether. The most obvious example of this is the frenzy of anti-abortion activity in recent years. Anti-choice forces have controlled the Republican Party since the late '70s, but only in the past few years have they concentrated so singlemindedly on trying to destroy legal abortion in wide swaths of the country. In 2011 alone, states passed nearly three times as many abortion restrictions as they had in any previous year. None of this is a reaction to any changes in people's sexual behavior or reproductive choices. It's not like there was a spike in abortions causing this panic. In fact, the abortion rate has been declining. And despite continuing media panic over adolescent sexuality the fact is that teenagers are waiting longer to have sex, on average, than in the past. Despite this, not only are you seeing a dramatic increase in attacks on legal abortion, the Christian right has expanded its attacks to contraception access, suggesting that something has worked them into a panic they believe can only be resolved by trying to reassert their religious and sexual values. That something isn't changes in sexual behavior, but it's reasonable to believe it's because of changes in sexual values. People might not be having more sex, but they are feeling less guilty about the sex they are having. Since Gallup first started polling people in 2001 on moral views, acceptance of consensual sex between adults has skyrocketed. In a decade's time, acceptance of premarital sex swelled from 53% to 66% of Americans and acceptance of gay Americans grew from a mere 38% to a majority of Americans. Even polyamory has become more acceptable for Americans, rising from being accepted by 5% of Americans to 14%. The fact that these changes in attitude are rising alongside the growth of irreligiosity is not a coincidence. More perhaps even than the 1960s, Americans are in a period of questioning rigid sexual and religious mores, and concluding, in increasing numbers, that they are not down with guilt-tripping people for victimless behavior and demanding conformity for its own sake. Some of them-now a whopping 22% of Americans! — are leaving religion entirely. Some are continuing in their faith but choosing to interpret their values differently than Christian conservatives would like. And so we see Christian conservatives cracking down in a desperate bid to EFTA00662172 regain control. They claim that they're being oppressed by increasing tolerance for religious diversity. They have latched onto, with some success, the claim that *"religious freedom"* requires giving Christians the right to oppress others. The Republican Party is in complete thrall to the religious right, to the point where giving the Christian right one go-nowhere symbolic bill instead of another one created a major political crisis. The irony is that this panic-based overreach is just making the situation worse for the Christian right. One of the biggest reasons the secularization trend has accelerated in recent years is that young people see the victim complex and the sex policing of the Christian right and it's turning them off. And they're not just rejecting conservative Christianity but the entire idea of organized religion altogether. In other words, the past few years have created a self-perpetuating cycle: Christian conservatives, in a panic over changing demographics, start cracking down. In reaction, more people give up on religion. That causes the Christian right to panic more and crack down more. In the end, Christian conservatives are going to hasten their own demise by trying to save themselves. And as Mancotte says, *"not that any of us should be crying for them."* The Myth of the Mutual Fund [image: Inline image 1] *How Many Mutual Funds Routinely Rout the Market? Zero* New York Times writer and podcast editor Jeff Sommer made a startling discovery based initially on a study last summer called "*Does Past Performance Matter? The Persistence Scorecard,"* conducted by *S&P Dow Jones Indices* twice a year. The edition of the study that he focused on began in March 2009, the start of the bull market. The bull market in stocks turned six last month, and despite some rocky stretches — it has generally been a very pleasant time for money managers, who have often posted good numbers. The study included 2,862 broad, actively managed domestic stock mutual funds that were in operation for the 12 months through 2010. The S&P Dow Jones team winnowed the funds based on performance. It selected the 25 percent of funds with the best returns over those 12 months — and then asked how many of those funds actually remained in the top quarter in each of the four succeeding 12month periods through March 2014. The answer was remarkably low: two. EFTA00662173 Just two funds — the Hodges Small Cap fund and the AMG SouthernSun Small Cap fund — managed to hold on to their berths in the top quarter every year for five years running. And for the 2,862 funds as a whole, that record is even a little worse than you would have expected from random chance alone. In other words, if all of the managers of the 2,862 funds hadn't bothered to try to pick stocks at all — if they had merely flipped coins — they would, as a group, probably have produced better numbers. Instead of two funds at the end of five years. Basic probability theory tells us there should have been at least three. The study seemed to support the considerable body of evidence suggesting that most people sshouldn'teven try to beat the market: Just pick lowcost index funds, assemble a balanced and appropriate portfolio for your specific needs, and give up on active fund management. The data in the study didn't prove that the mutual fund managers lacked talent or that you couldn't beat the market. But, as Keith Loggie, the senior director of global research and design at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in an interview last week, the evidence certainly ddidn'tbolster the case for investing with active fund managers. *"Looking at the numbers, you can't tell whether there is skill involved in what they do or whether their performance is just a matter of luck,"* Mr. Loggie said. s"I believe that many of them do have skill. But even if they do have it, based on how they've done in the past you really can't predict how they will perform in the future."* And although those two funds had manage to perform splendidly during the last study — at the time of the article we were two weeks away from the completion of another 12 months since the end of that last study, and up to then it had been a mediocre for those two mutual funds, leaving Mr. Sommer to conclude that at the end there would be none. Here are the dismal statistics: The SouthernSun Small Cap fund has actually lost money for investors over the 12 months through Thursday. It was down 3.2 percent, according to Morningstar, and for the nine months through December, it was in the bottom quartile of funds in the S&P. Dow Jones study. The Hodges Small Cap fund has done better, gaining almost 6 percent through the middle of March. S.&.P Dow Jones Indices says that put it in the third quartile — or secondtoworst one — through December. While it's mathematically possible, it is highly unlikely that either will climb to the top quartile in the next few weeks, Mr. Loggie said. This is an indication that one can never use past performance to predict future returns. Yes It is always possible that any one of these funds will beat the market over the long term and some of them will. But the problem is that we don't know which of them will do that in advance. And that, in a nutshell, is the kernel of the argument for buying index funds. As much as mutual funds will tell you that their strategies employ science, it is a science that is less predictable than the weather forecast on your local television station's news program. So why are so many Americans not realizing that almost all Mutual Funds underperforms the market and continue to pay them millions and billions of dollars in fees? EFTA00662174 A Tale of Two States [image: Inline image 1] [image: Inline image 2] It's hard to compare states so I found Randi Weingarten recent article in *The Washington Post* *- It's a tale of two states — *as both sit side by side along sharing the shoreline with Lake Superior Their economies both grew from foundations in manufacturing, farming and mining, and they each boast a strong history of organized labor. And in 2010, still reeling from the recession, they elected new governors. Except that the governors took these two states -- Minnesota and Wisconsin -- have gone down two very different paths. Today, Minnesota's unemployment rate is 3.6 percent -- far below the nationwide rate of 5.7 percent - while Wisconsin's job growth has been among the worst in the region and its income growth has been among the worst in the nation. Since his election, Minnesota Governor Mark Dayton turned his state's budget deficit into a projected surplus of nearly $2 billion. While Republican front-runner for the 2016 Presidential election, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker has swollen his state's budget deficit to a projected $2 billion. Meanwhile, Dayton has boosted the minimum wage, invested in public education and supported workers' rights. (*And Minnesota has the most union members of any state in the Midwest.*) And Walker has slashed funding to public schools, and is dismantling the state's public university system. On March 9, he signed a bill that makes Wisconsin the 25th so-called right to work state, which, research shows, contrary to the hype, drives down wages and destroys good jobs. Why? All in an effort to eviscerate Wisconsin's labor unions. Hasn't someone told Governor Walker that *Trickle-Down Economics* doesn't work and frankly and it never has. Therefore if we want to restore a healthy middle class, we need a different approach. If we want a strong middle class, which both Governors say that they want, then you can't take out the unions that built it. If you want good jobs with higher wages, then workers need a voice. If we want to restore a healthy middle class, we need a different approach, a virtuous cycle that begins with a high-quality public education that gives students the skills they need to get good jobs with fair wages, helping each generation climb the ladder of opportunity. Another crucial step is to enable more workers to form and join unions. As Hillary Clinton recently noted, "The American middle class was built, in part, by the right for people to organize and bargain."* And at Weingarten pointed out in her article Secretary Clinton is right. When unions were at their peak, more workers -- upwards of 50 percent -- were in the middle class. Conversely, a decline in union membership - spurred on EFTA00662175 by trickle-down economics, ideological attacks and globalization -- is directly linked to the rise in income inequality. At a time when only the wealthiest 10 percent have reaped the benefits of any gains in productivity, workers once again need a voice on the job. Collective bargaining can lift all boats, even those boats that aren't carrying a union card. [image: Inline image 3] Look at wages. In the heyday of the American labor movement, non-managerial workers' wages went up 75 percent. As unions have been on the decline, these workers have only seen a four percent bump. Still, even today, union workers earn 28 percent more than nonunion workers. When two-thirds of our economic activity is driven by consumer spending, it's critical that working families have more money in their pockets to spend. Broadly shared prosperity will remain elusive as long as workers' buying power is limited. And then there is retirement security. Eighty-six percent of Americans believe our nation faces a retirement security crisis. Unions bargain a secure retirement on behalf of workers, often in the form of pensions. Pensions both ensure that workers can retire with financial dignity and are important investors in our economy. For every dollar paid in pension benefits, there's $2.37 in economic output. Plus, long-term capital funds create hundreds of thousands of jobs in asset classes like infrastructure, venture capital and real estate. Collective bargaining has a multiplier effect. So do laws meant to take collective bargaining away. Workers in so-called right-to-work states make about $1,500 less per year. When wages are lower, workers leave the state, depressing job creation, and there's a sizable economic loss to the state. Marquette University economist Abdur Chowdhury estimates the impact of right-to-work on Wisconsin will be "a net loss of direct and indirect income of at least $5.8 billion annually."' Governors and state policymakers have a clear choice. They can push ideological policies to break the backs of unions and further disempower workers, have their deficit grow, workers' wages sink and their state ranked at the bottom for business and economic climate, as Walker's Wisconsin is. Or they can -- like Minnesota, which is ranked in the top ten in the nation for its business and economic climate -- strengthen unions and workers' rights, invest in public education and infrastructure, and create more good jobs. And as Weingarten also pointed out, "*It's a clear choice, and if we care about working families accessing the American dream -- it's not a hard one."* America's Mass Incarceration Habit Needs a Serious Fix EFTA00662176 [image: Inline image 1] *Michael K. Williams is the ACLU ambassador for ending mass incarceration. He is an actor living in Williamsburg, Brooklyn**.* When Michael Williams was growing up in East Flatbush, one of the toughest neighborhoods in Brooklyn, one of his very best friends was something else. He, let's call him MZ, could have had Hollywood on a string. He was actually William's inspiration for becoming an actor. MZ, however, suffered from bipolar disorder. Too poor to get the mental health care he needed, he ended up behind bars, and it wrecked him. He was no longer the friend and brother I knew. Between the disorder and what he experienced in prison, he's never been the same — a shell of his former self. Stories like MZ's are all too common. Our society has been using jails and prisons as a dumping ground for the mentally ill and those addicted to drugs. These human beings don't belong in prison, they belong in treatment, yet we've pushed them into cages and denied them their humanity. Is it shocking that these same valuable citizens, like my friend MZ, emerge worse off than when they went in? Let's face it: *America is addicted to mass incarceration, and it's making our society sick.* Our habit of locking away human beings is a particularly unseemly kind of addiction for a country that prides itself on freedom, especially when the United States incarcerates more of its citizens than China, Russia, or Iran. Right now America has about 5 percent of the world's population but is responsible for 25 percent of the world's incarcerated population. In other words, one out of four people in prison today are inside U.S. jails and penitentiaries. That is nearly 2.4 million human beings — an obscene number. In America, it is black men, more than anyone else, who suffer from our dependence on mass incarceration. Currently, black men are six times more likely to be imprisoned in federal and state prisons and local jails than white men. This horrifying racial disparity comes in part from the war on drugs, which has been devastating communities of color for the past four decades. Although blacks and whites use illegal drugs at roughly the same rates, African-Americans make up nearly 40 percent of those put away for drug offenses in state or federal prison, even though we only make up 13 percent of the U.S. population. We need to realize that these statistics represent human beings. These men are someone's child, someone's parent. Someone loves them and still wants the best for them. These men have dreams of being great, too. Ruining people's lives for small, nonviolent offenses tied to drug use, drug addiction, or mental illness is not the way to go. Health problems are health problems, not criminal justice problems. It's by the grace of God EFTA00662177 that I didn't get into more serious trouble. If I had, there's no way I'd be where I am today. There are far too many people of color with bright futures that have been relegated to our prison systems. However, instead of being provided with opportunities to express themselves or their creativity safely or getting the right support, they make mistakes which cost them dearly. The costs of those mistakes are high and these men pay with their futures. Once people have done hard time, the world closes in on them. It's damn near impossible to get a job. Depending on where you live, you likely can't vote. The possibility of becoming a productive citizen is foreclosed on by a system that denies those who have served their time with another chance. Instead, they're forever seen as ex-cons. And don't forget the huge cost of confinement. The U.S. spent $80 billion in 2010 on locking up people on the local, state, and federal level, which could be better spent on education, health care, or simply getting at-risk people the counseling they need so they don't fall back into addiction and petty crime. We have spent the last 40 years stuffing our prisons, mostly with black and brown men, and for what? This isn't who we are. America, we can do better. We have to, for all people. Because MZ deserved better, and there are hundreds of thousands more like him. Unbelievable GOP Statements on Voter Suppression [image: Inline image 1] Gov. Chris Christie during a campaign stop in Connecticut for Republican gubernatorial candidate Tom Foley. You would think that making it easier for citizens to vote would be something for everyone in a democracy to celebrate. But the shocking remarks by these six government officials - some of whom will be on the November ballot — tell a different story. *Governor Chris Christie: Same-Day Voter Registration Is a "Trick" and GOP Needs to Win Gubernatorial Races So They Control "Voting Mechanisms"* In early March, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie spoke at a US Chamber of Commerce gathering in Washington, DC. 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