Thoughts on Israel and Iran from Tom Donilon and Dennis Ross

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Jake, I attended a book launch at the Washington Institute today for Dennis Ross' new book "Doomed to Success". He and Tom Donilon held a discussion and there were several points you may wish to consider for Hillary's use. 1. Israel is most likely to show flexibility when it has confidence in the US, and when there is the intense security dialogue that existed when Tom was NSC adviser, but does not exist now. (Dennis). This should include an updated security MOU(Dennis and Tom) 2.The US needs to engage in confidence boosting measures with Israel and the Palestinians, and should not be paralyzed into inaction because a comprehensive peace is not possible now. It must not be seen as a binary choice between all or nothing, or a dangerous vacuum will be created. These practical steps include the following: (1) Stating and restating the status quo Kerry brokered with Israel and Jordan, with 24/7 cameras, for the Temple Mount. (2) Lowering provocative rhetoric on both sides, and encouraging the Palestinians to speak out against violence. (3) Restore a belief in a two-state soluton as the only alternative. The Oslo Agreement is still the framework, and although Abbas says he is no longer bound by it, actual security cooperation and tax revenue transfers continue. (4) Given the weakness and dysfunction of the Palestinian leadership, quietly encourage the moderate Arabs to support their re-entry into negotiations.(Dennis) I could add to that economic initiatives (QIZ in the West Bank; joint projects in the West Bank; reduced checkpoints and increased numbers of carefully vetted Palestinian workers, etc.) 3. Iran (Dennis and Tom). At the November 9 meeting between Bibi and Obama, and the Washington meetings Bibi will hold, the following should be accomplished: (1) There must be a fact-based analysis of Iranian compliance with the deal. (Tom) A joint consultative group of senior intelligence experts should be created with Israel and the US to monitor Iranian compliance with the nuclear deal, and determine how violations will be handled. This can rebuild trust between the two governments, and avoid differing interpretations.(Dennis) (2) The US should make clear in advance the consequences of Iranian violations during the 10-15 year period, and thereafter, what the US would do if Iran tries a nuclear weapons breakout. 4. Israel. (1) The PM needs to repair the damage to Israel's bipartisan support, by time and again stressing that US support for Israel has always been and must remain outside partisan politics. The two countries have shared values and interests (Tom) (2) Both agreed that Obama made a serious error at the outset of his Administration of going to Cairo and not going to Israel afterward. (3) The violence is very different than the 1st and 2d Intifadas, which were centrally directed. But their randomness also makes it more difficult to stop.(Dennis). (4) The violence underscores the fantasy and danger of a one state solution, since it would incorporate violent elements into Israel.(Dennis) 5. Syria.(Tom). (1) Russia's re-entry into the Middle East for the first time since the 1970s is a dangerous situation, both with the possibility of military encounters with the US, but also because of the foothold it gives Russia. (2) This is also dangerous for Israel as it puts Assad's allies, Hezbollah and Iran, near the Golon Heights (3)(Dennis) Victories in northern Iraq against ISIS are very important to dent their image of invulnerability, which is a major recruiting tool for them. Best wishes, Stu Eizenstat Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T Delivered-To: [email protected] Received: by 10.25.125.86 with SMTP id y83csp376409lfc; Mon, 26 Oct 2015 17:05:12 -0700 (PDT) X-Received: by 10.50.119.9 with SMTP id kq9mr7799996igb.32.1445904312740; Mon, 26 Oct 2015 17:05:12 -0700 (PDT) Return-Path: <[email protected]> Received: from mail-io0-x22a.google.com (mail-io0-x22a.google.com. 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[74.82.80.172]) by smtp.gmail.com with ESMTPSA id m29sm13951805iod.38.2015.10.26.17.05.11 (version=TLSv1 cipher=RC4-SHA bits=128/128); Mon, 26 Oct 2015 17:05:11 -0700 (PDT) X-rim-org-msg-ref-id:1469864690 Message-ID:<1469864690-1445904305-cardhu_decombobulator_blackberry.rim.net-37155642-@b25.c1.bise6.blackberry> Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64 Reply-To: [email protected] X-Priority: Normal Sensitivity: Normal Importance: Normal Subject: Thoughts on Israel and Iran from Tom Donilon and Dennis Ross To: "Jacob (Jake) J. Sullivan" <[email protected]> CC: "Huma M. Abedin" <[email protected]>, "John D. Podesta" <[email protected]> From: [email protected] Date: Mon, 26 Oct 2015 22:00:37 +0000 Content-Type: text/plain MIME-Version: 1.0 RGVhciBKYWtlLAoKSSBhdHRlbmRlZCBhIGJvb2sgbGF1bmNoIGF0IHRoZSBXYXNoaW5ndG9uIElu c3RpdHV0ZSB0b2RheSBmb3IgRGVubmlzIFJvc3MnIG5ldyBib29rICJEb29tZWQgdG8gU3VjY2Vz cyIuIEhlIGFuZCBUb20gRG9uaWxvbiBoZWxkIGEgZGlzY3Vzc2lvbiBhbmQgdGhlcmUgd2VyZSBz ZXZlcmFsIHBvaW50cyB5b3UgbWF5IHdpc2ggdG8gY29uc2lkZXIgZm9yIEhpbGxhcnkncyB1c2Uu CgoxLiBJc3JhZWwgaXMgbW9zdCBsaWtlbHkgdG8gc2hvdyBmbGV4aWJpbGl0eSB3aGVuIGl0IGhh cyBjb25maWRlbmNlIGluIHRoZSBVUywgYW5kIHdoZW4gdGhlcmUgaXMgdGhlIGludGVuc2Ugc2Vj dXJpdHkgZGlhbG9ndWUgdGhhdCBleGlzdGVkIHdoZW4gVG9tIHdhcyBOU0MgYWR2aXNlciwgYnV0 IGRvZXMgbm90IGV4aXN0IG5vdy4gKERlbm5pcykuIFRoaXMgc2hvdWxkIGluY2x1ZGUgYW4gdXBk YXRlZCBzZWN1cml0eSBNT1UoRGVubmlzIGFuZCBUb20pCgoyLlRoZSBVUyBuZWVkcyB0byBlbmdh Z2UgaW4gY29uZmlkZW5jZSBib29zdGluZyBtZWFzdXJlcyB3aXRoIElzcmFlbCBhbmQgdGhlIFBh bGVzdGluaWFucywgYW5kIHNob3VsZCBub3QgYmUgcGFyYWx5emVkIGludG8gaW5hY3Rpb24gYmVj 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