EFTA01367328.pdf

31 May 2015 Integrated Oil US Integrated Oils Despite the current speculation on the impact of potential reductions to brownfield capital spend linfill drilling, tie-backs) or other decline maintenance efforts, the reality is that large projects remain the single largest driver of incremental volume growth, and the lag in project development timelines means that many of those "3100/bbl crude" projects will start over the coming 2-3 years. Figure 11: Non-OPEC peak spending from 2012-2014 chief driver of increase in incremental "growth" barrels anticipated on-stream between 2015-2017 a I 8 40 40 4r 40 40 40 40 re 4>N 43" 4P re re fes isOnshofe (ex US. Canada) •Shallow •OW IlUDW •Canada Offshore. Oil Sands s LNG Sane Detach* M. Vitat Irnoine There are clearly risks to this outlook, as Non-OPEC supply has historically disappointed (see figure below), but there is no avoiding the fact that the outlook for Non-OPEC supply is more robust than usual. IFigure 12: However, Non-OPEC Supply has often disappointed (lEA Non- OPEC supply projection revisions) 1.2 rn 1.0 2014 2010 0.8 "012 a 0.6 2015 0 (1, ^o OA t 0.2 2011 E 0.0 •c (0.2) (0.4) 2009 •8. (0.6) • (0.8) Month IEA Forecast was Made co co CO a) 0 0 0 .— CV CV C') ro) O 9 0 0 .6 it) m g o a a) O. g el; ti LL 0 O tr) LL Sane !EA °nano en Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 9 CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0058860 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00205044 EFTA01367328