EFTA01385461.pdf

3 January 2018 HY Corporate Credit HY Multi Sector,Media, Cable & Satellite Worldwide Steel Consumption (Apparent Demand) In this section we explore global steel apparent demand trends. In Figure 20 we show a summary of global steel consumption (apparent demand) by region trio tonnes) Global Steel Consumption 10000 2007 2006 1009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 ^. Global Ch.,* 43b64.0 44b4/10 Ir74,42r1 SILOGG 46i.b<0 Ett7.610 76%T>7 747.380 :JO Cot; 708,400 44'. I. YoY 109'. 6.S,': 23.4% 1..e% 39!J 174% 21% I.35, Japes 55.900 10200 54030 Aµ0 Oa) 11500 70300 72.100 17304 11501 4% % t Yo V 31% 11'1 411% aMt 33% • I.Ifi 211% 30% 44% In 55.01 5820 14.240 40.002 71154 77.414 00.454 84,404 0419 004591 4% %.: Yo V nO% 13% 140% 7.3% 53% IS% 42% 7.1% 32% 10% South Kern 57,404 16,011 47203 54.572 51,741 56122 SIAI9 57924 54125 55.454 4% %A Ye Y 29% 43% 426% 16.4% 70% .41% 73% 05% 23% Otbor Silo 91240 21.)347 71.711 87171 94.144 102.944 110037 114.505 172.143 1/3,153 a YoY 44% 04% 424% at% 77% 94% 40% 40% 90% ASIA 715099 741717 011,744 1Oµ6 MIS 991122 1401,132 1074,123 1.1207.177 1441.1.11 DS% . t YoV 82% 44% 48% 34% 12% II% 84% .49% 4.4% 0% EUROPEAN UNION 224632 207220 129147 161413 1716111 154111 157,00 Man 10,969 172,100 11% % , Yel 7.4% .7.2% 479% 15.0% 12% -70.7% LI% 14% 14% 15% Oretad State: MASI 110200 69,400 1µ0 101,003 100,300 106.300 121,600 101.300 102170 6% V, v .702% .37 29. 33 1% 11-1G 7.17!; 4•% 74" .W." rI.M. Other North Amex. 44514 44.090 211000 10402 41.462 ALIO 43202 47574 47,074 4Oµ4 2% IL IL. I .43% .5.6% 414% JOS% 06% 20% .439. 150% 43% 59% NORTH AMERICA 167,207 154.540 11200 131,203 f42µ0 152.445 14040 140,574 156276 152.028 9% % , YoY .44% .75% .254% 314% N% 77% 43% 124% 44% .22% aturera 44961 40414 24.472 41µ4 47211 Meal 41271 alba 44.538 42.452 3% ; , Ia Y ti 1fr 4 7 91 ..70.4% 15.3'; 16% 12.% 0.4'9 .AS; -95% .139 MMus Ruisiol 14293 16.121 12.275 U.032 15257 16.191 11767 14.099 12.147 11205 1% -t YoY 777: 41.6% 339% 14.7% 57% 91% 3.6% -19.9^- • /4 II% 11% OS ea WE 40.712 sea sea 115.01 WOO 81252 54.705 54727 2% %!. Vol' 143% 4,74% 415% 247% 1.4.0% VP% 12% .441% 45% OTHER EUROPE 32.103 aµ1 24,530 20527 34,954 36,121 39,143 39.276 42,450 43130 3 % i Vol 72% .03% -145% 34.1% 10.1% 41% 84% 03% at% tr.. SOUTH AMERICA 43,303 45.644 31445 47,749 50.564 5170 54.514 51415 47423 40.617 2% % 'YoY 142% 77% .240% 347% 5.9% 22% 59% -41% .74% -144% MIDDLE EAST 44,375 54.205 50.096 52271 56,119 55.661 37210 59104 Mal 57.733 4% % ' Y.I' 244% 12.1% .7.7% 05% 37% 33% 2.9% .12% ./..3% 235RICA 24992 as,en 324204 20231 32.010 25080 *417 40307 47032 40,016 2% % •.. YoY 14% 115% 143% .75% at% 119% 1021% 2.8% 23% 47% OCEANIA 9µ5 9,545 6732 5.033 7,745 0,271 7427 0,377 11235 7710 0% t YoY 21% 72% .229% 303% 414% 68% -9.0% 116% .20% 33% Global SIM ComompUon ID44,4501 1.330503 1.336,074 1,233271 1400233 1223,022 1.5640257 1252449 1133.162 1A16µ0 MOMS 100% % Yo 69% 0.4% -7.7% 143% 40% 20% ICJ% 1.0% 17% 0.3% Wwtt 00-4“, So". 844eir*D449 Anent* LP, OW 1.744 While China accounts for approximately 50% of global crude steel production, according to the data it uses --44% of that steel domestically. Chinese demand for steel is predominantly attributable to government-funded projects targeting property and infrastructure development. Below we list the top five countries in terms of steel consumption worldwide. Collectively they comprised -63% of global apparent demand in 2016; excluding China this statistic falls to —19%. Picture 21. The Top Five Steel-Consuming Countries Worldwide in 2016 (000's of metric tonne;;' Giesiereietaseneese moll 2007 20111 200 2010 2011 2012 21112 2014 2015 200 % Obbel I II C7,164 4534 455µO 574.40 512,09 62,930 62.10 75,750 740,360 700.3 709.400 44 %A YoY 103% 4.4% 714% 44% 91% 23% 71.4% 33% .54+, ;7% 21 MOW Slats 120.351 110.500 9µO $2.400 101.550 10,303 104.300 171µb 100300 102270 4'. % 1 YoY .103% 42% 372% 33.1% 93% 72% 144% 40.9% .53% 31 Indio 05.491 54.209 MAO 69.042 73154 Y7µ5 SUMS 93404 69919 91.651 6°. % t YoY 110% 15% 145% 73% 59% 54% 43% 7,.. .15% 25% 4) Jew 95.900 81200 56.000 57µO 69.600 01800 70400 72490 67.800 67.500 4% %1 YoY 21% 31% 20.4% 11% 4.1% 10% 30. -7 0% .04% 51 South Kane 57404 61,011 47402 54,573 50,741 56222 53919 57234 54125 59.454 4. * % 1 YoY 94% 83% 15.4% 76% 47% .43% 73% 05% 23% Top FleeISM Consuming NeSOa. 703,025 779400 91100 805.515 970,425 9Mµ6 7.077.425 1674,111 1,023.414 1.030.505 % %..i YeY 40% 24% 4.8% 70.44, 44% 2.9% 799. 02% 3.1% of% Gob& Sisal Append Geared 1,130400 1,324074 1,222.271 1,4011,592 1.423.022 1.554024 1.052µ9 1.561152 1,51bµ0 1,100.109 107% % A YeY 141% 41.4% .77% Ili% 4.0.7 2.0% 43% 1.0% 41% 09% San 077444,4 04* aturoorg #,wortP. M.7 pa." Srootimonareri Notably Russia was the fifth largest steelmaker in 2016 producing 70.8mn mt of steel, yet apparent domestic demand in Russia for that manufactured steel was only 42.4mn mt. Given such a wide disparity between supply and demand, Russia may be responsible for one of the largest steel surpluses after China. Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 187 CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0086746 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00232930 EFTA01385461