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Henry C. Jackson | 05/03/2016 04:23 PM EDT NO CRUZ CONTROL: If, as polls may suggest http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=b7d378923ee20aa0400ebfdcf3e366f01d9476a09c5e504b2c495d1608a499a4 TED CRUZ loses badly to DONALD TRUMP tonight, it's a disaster for the Texas senator. The question is whether it's a campaign-ending one. As POLITICO's Kyle Cheney reports Cruz is bracing for a loss tonight, one that will, at a minimum, force him to question his path forward. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=b7d378923ee20aa0fcb450db7877a2b2ea318d7e39317dc70dd25a402c0666d7 While a contested nomination has long been the only path to the nomination for Cruz, if Trump scores a significant enough victory tonight, that path may be blocked, too. Cruz has vowed to stay in the race "for the distance." But time, and money are running out. As POLITICO's Shane Goldmacher reports, many operatives and, importantly, many donors, believe that if Trump can't be stopped in Indiana, he simply can't be stopped. Read more at: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=b7d378923ee20aa074c665d6c8f169ccc0987c485fbd3d79434f2764b01bf7bd It's Tuesday, Indiana votes and your 2016 Blast well, it blasts. Henry C. Jackson (@Henrycjjackson) is here to guide you through the day's campaign news, so send your tips, complaints and most scorching hot takes to [email protected]. PROGRAMMING NOTE: It's a Bonus Blast night! We'll see you after the votes. ** A message from Qualcomm: We're inventing the technologies that connect cities to their citizens. Through the use of intelligent connectivity solutions, we're developing the wireless communication technologies that revolutionize city infrastructure. Our innovations in smart infrastructure help make cities more efficient and cost-effective. Learn more at http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=b7d378923ee20aa0066cf0c10e5a0e3eae565fbbcf65f6f3e231b47fc12c734f ** WHAT MATTERS: Here are four more things we're watching today - and why they matter. 2) ENDING ON A POSITIVE: Oh, who are we kidding. TED CRUZ and DONALD TRUMP spent the last hours, as Indiana voted, engaging in some of the most bitter and visceral attacks of the 2016 campaign. Trump floated a theory that Cruz's father, Rafael Cruz, may have been involved with the assassination of President John F. Kennedy. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=b7d378923ee20aa0658694b24d85338d00cc8b2ebee2a8aeca4cc941a80666f6 No, that wasn't a misprint. Cruz called this "nuts" - what else could he say, really? And then he launched a bitter attack against Trump, as well as against media, which he said had "made a decision" to get behind the real estate mogul. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=b7d378923ee20aa0f9854d468ca2ed462f6e36af1506cfd13fee546aa8924cb0 3) A LAST FLICKER? The delegate counts do not look great and the path forward is complicated, but BERNIE SANDERS' campaign evinced positive vibes ahead of Indiana's Democratic primary. Sanders' campaign manager, Jeff Weaver, said it was "certainly possible" that Sanders could knock off HILLARY CLINTON tonight. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=b7d378923ee20aa04b66f5a6cf2daec377318a6774f7e45ea44390ec94a17278 His campaign expressed hope that a win or positive showing might end a week of negative coverage that has included staff layoffs and a mixed message about whether he would continue to attack Clinton. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=b7d378923ee20aa00caf42c6ac404add27d38adc5404b8b583577080be6e1853 Polls have shown a close race, and Sanders has surprised before. 4) A LASTING BERN: Whether he wins tonight in Indiana, BERNIE SANDERS has clearly shaped the candidacy of his Democratic rival, HILLARY CLINTON. POLITICO's Annie Karni looks at how Sanders' message of economic populism has shaped her campaign message. There's even an approving nod from sometimes-critic, former Obama strategist David Axelrod: "You can see in her rhetoric and positioning that Hillary Clinton has heard this message loud and clear," Axelrod said. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=b7d378923ee20aa0de191acbf5285290feb8008430ab703b64858336d1b348c5 5) WHO, WHAT, WHERE: Indiana is voting - and won't stop entirely until 7 p.m. eastern. (Part of the state finishes at 6 p.m., the rest at 7 p.m.). Here's what's at stake: For Democrats: 92 delegates, which will be distributed proportionately. For Republicans: 57 delegates, with 30 going to the statewide winner, and 27 determined by results in the state's 9 congressional districts - 3 winner-take-all delegates to each district. And here's your current delegate tallies, for candidates still in the race: DEMOCRATS (2,383 to clinch): HILLARY CLINTON has 2,165, BERNIE SANDERS has 1,357. REPUBLICANS (1,237 to clinch): DONALD TRUMP has 996. TED CRUZ has 565. JOHN KASICH has 153. TRAIL MIX: Elsewhere on the campaign trail, HILLARY CLINTON is confronted on coal, BERNIE SANDERS* goes to the prom (and so does Anthony Weiner), TED CRUZ misread Indiana, DONALD TRUMP inspires Argentinians. COAL POWERED: HILLARY CLINTON was confronted by a laid off coal worker while campaigning in West Virginia and said her earlier comments about putting his industry's employees out of work were a "misstatement." (Fox 5) http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=b7d378923ee20aa0326df3828bfd06d5cd65874d052bb7f9507cc61312d62b42 NIGHT OUT: Huma Abedin shared a rare public night at the Met Gala with her husband, former Rep. Anthony Weiner. (The Daily Mail) http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=b7d378923ee20aa09e234ac2d2dbc60b65907ca383c0f95195495f73a1ceff64 BERNING ON PROM NIGHT: A high school senior brought (a life-sized cutout of) BERNIE SANDERS out to her prom. Sure. (New York Daily News) http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=b7d378923ee20aa0efde2cd10864afe9a84afb174c599238378a8212d4ad1f30 INDIANA JONES: A writer argues that, despite his great desire to win it, TED CRUZ totally misread Indiana. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=b7d378923ee20aa07cf040bbf31b428d270694cf4312ce00a96c1b0f47f9246e HUSKER DO: DONALD TRUMP is the first candidate to air ads in Nebraska. (The New York Times) http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=b7d378923ee20aa0171c98840e0c9a2427bb5810e04d58fdb11c7bca40b68bf6 GETTING MESSI: An Argentine TV station is using DONALD TRUMP to promote the Argentina national team's chances at soccer's Copa America this summer. (Deadspin) http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=b7d378923ee20aa01299041f32befa8c7e1ad85285ebdf9a6797eb08f6cac24d WHAT'S NEXT: JOHN KASICH, (remember him?!?), is focused on western states. So is HILLARY CLINTON - she heads to California, as does BERNIE SANDERS. TED CRUZ heads to Nebraska, which votes May 10 along with West Virginia. THEY SAID IT: "He is proud of being a serial philanderer ... he describes his own battles with venereal diseases as his own personal Vietnam," - TED CRUZ on DONALD TRUMP. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=b7d378923ee20aa0af6191940dd196c41825a036556e681fad9a260e9839fb05 MAGIC NUMBER: 56. That's DONALD TRUMP's percentage in a new Survey Monkey/NBC News national poll of Republicans - his highest to date. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=b7d378923ee20aa0618b6b548f919db2b4f649a74de948fa63426628bd86d8b0 FOLLOW @POLITICO'S politics team: @PoliticoCharlie, @POLITICO_Steve, @PoliticoAlex, @anniekarni, @GlennThrush, @EliStokols, @katieglueck, @schreckreports, @gdebenedetti, @Hadas_Gold, @ec_schneider, @kyledcheney , @theodoricmeyer, @MarcACaputo, @PoliticoKevin,@mikeallen, @dlippman, @Danielstrauss4, @henrycjjackson, @shanegoldmacher,@KristinPolitico, @PoliticoScott, @Patrick_C_Reis There you go - now you're caught up on the 2016 race. TBNR. We'll see you back here tonight. ** A message from Qualcomm: We're partnering with New York City to create a state-of-the-art network to transform old public pay phones into Wi-Fi hotspots. 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Learn more at http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=b7d378923ee20aa0066cf0c10e5a0e3eae565fbbcf65f6f3e231b47fc12c734f ** To view online: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=b7d378923ee20aa0776b65191b451c62c63ac1cd4dc42770bd4506b2a8ba2c9a To change your alert settings, please go to http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=b7d378923ee20aa042912696daa2dcfba05e51e82301a36fd532c8e091f40df3 or http://click.politicoemail.com/profile_center.aspx?qs=57cf03c73f21c5ef65b9c058ca0f6cfa66691761e73177ec4b160515c9673edf2bd009e27e4b0c29ad5cb056a990d0a8a077b89ac9f0e550This email was sent to [email protected] by: POLITICO, LLC 1000 Wilson Blvd. Arlington, VA, 22209, USA To unsubscribe,http://www.politico.com/_unsubscribe?e=00000154-7849-d323-a97f-7e7ff9da0000&u=0000014e-f112-dd93-ad7f-f917a8270002&s=f995d5897efbc48ad5969cacd526130f32aaec4fe683fd33777fe53dc078561d1ec68e22c286c03a4a74cd3c74656b33b6c96a9fb22dcb83c511b7650be74400