podesta_email_00067.txt

podesta-emails 1,864 words email

P17 V11 V16 D6 P19

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Jake, I thought it might be useful for the campaign to give you a quick summary of some of the points that were made at the JPPI conference we had on Monday and Tuesday of this week at Glen Cove, New York. Dennis Ross and I co-chair JPPI, which is based in Jerusalem, and was created by the Jewish Agency of Israel ten years ago to be a think tank for strategic issues facing Israel, the Diaspora, and USG-Israel relations. We have a group of fellows, like retired General Michael Herzog (brother of the opposition leader), Avi Gil and others. At the conference, we had Natan Sharansky, who heads the Jewish Agency; leading Jewish organizational leaders (e.g. heads of major UJA Federations around the country); leading rabbis (e.g. Norman Kurtz in Chicago, and Eric Yoffie); academics from Harvard to UCLA; a Member of the Canadian Parliament and former Cabinet Minister (Irwin Cotler)l Middle East experts like David Makovsky, Martin Indyk, and, of course, Dennis Ross, as well as Henry Kissinger and Eric Schmidt of Google, who talked about high tech in Israel. Moreover, Malcolm Honlein, the president of the Conference of Presidents of Major Jewish Organizations (who I put together with Hillary through you and Huma), was there for the whole two day conference. and spoke on several occasions. We had a signficant number of Israelis there, as well. 1. ISRAEL (1) The new Netanyahu government has very little flexibility on the peace process, given its right-wing tilt. (2) While solid majorities of the Israeli public (over 60%) continue to support the two state solution, only a minority believe it is feasible, given Palestinian intransigence. (3) A number of people, including, interestingly, Malcolm Honlein, felt the Prime Minister should now accept the last Kerry offer as a basis for resuming negotiations. Evidently, the last version given to Bibi did not contain language on Jerusalem (which he cannot accept), while the last version given to Abbas contained the language (but they still rejected it). (4) There was a clear consensus that the BDS/anti-delegitimization movement against Israel was growing in Europe, and was an increasing threat. (5) There was a grave concern that the Obama Administration, once the Iran nuclear negotiations are out of the way, will support some form of the French proposal for a new UN Resolution to supplant UN Resolution 242, endorsing the two-state solution, with 1967 borders, and with Jerusalem as the capital of both Israel and a Palestinian state. Several people felt that given the impasse in the peace process, Israel's argument that this should be left to negotiations, had a hollow ring to it. If this is going to happen, then it should be framed in ways that force the Palestinians to make tough choices, like ending claims to the "right of return". But the safest political position is to oppose what will be seen as an effort to "impose" a solution both sides will reject. (6) There was a feeling on the part of some that Gaza was likely to blow-up again, a combination of Hamas rearming and rebuilding their tunnels, and the impact of the embargo, which has not been loosened. (7) Israel needed to be more creative to take advantage of the open window for cooperating with the Sunni states (Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States, Egypt, Jordan) against their common enemy, Iran. (8) Most troubling was the pervasive feeling that the US has withdrawn from a leadership position in the Middle East, leaving our allies in the Arab world, and Israel, to fend for themselves. The level of vitriol against the President was striking, to such a degree that one participant urged that he was being unfairly demonized. 2. ANTI-SEMITISM/ANTI-ZIONISM (1) There was genuine belief that there is a substantial rise in anti-Semitism in Europe (a topic I addressed at some length). This is most evident in France (where 7000 French Jews left in 2014 for Israel, with almost double that amount expected this year); Belgium; parts of Sweden (Malmo); the Netherlands; Greece; Hungary; Ukraine; but even in the UK. Roger Cukierman, the long-time head of the CRIF, French Jewry's central organization, cited several examples of the growth of anti-Semitism during my negotiations with the French government for payments for people deported on the French railway during World War II, as Secretary Kerry's Special Adviser on Holocaust Issues. Thus, in 2001, when his first term began, 90% of school-age French Jews attended public schools; now only 30% do so, because of the intimidation in schools. It is dangerous to wear a kipot (head-covering) on the Metro. Argentine Jews are also increasingly fearful, in part because of their government's close relations with Iran, which is widely seen as having planned and funded the Hezbollah attacks in the 1990s against the Jewish community center (AMIA), and the Israeli Embassy in Buenos Aires. (2) Modern-day anti-Semitism is a product of a combination of factors: (a) Neo-Nazi/right wing parties, which have long had an anti-Semitic strain, like Le Pen's National Front in France. (b) Left-wing parties/academics, who oppose Israel's settlement policy and occupation and import their opposition on Jews, who are seen (wrongly) as surrogates for Israel. (c) Angry, disaffected, unintegrated Muslim young people, who identify with the Palestinians as the underdogs and address their anger for their plight and that of the Palestinians at Jews in their countries. (3) French Prime Minister Valls estimates there are some 3000 European-born Muslims fighting in Syria and Iraq, 1000 from France, who come back to Europe, armed and trained jihadists. This was precisely the profile of the suspect in the Brussels Jewish Museum attack last year. (4) The growth in anti-Semitism, and anti-Zionism is not limited to Europe. There is a greater security fear among Jews in both the U.S., Europe, and key Latin American countries. It was reported that 14 AEPi fraternity houses on American campuses were subject to some form of desecration. Several people said that "American campuses were our Europe". (5) Malcolm Honlein placed special emphasis on the rise of anti-Semitism in his remarks. He said that the Conference of Presidents of Major Jewish Organizations was catalyzing efforts to create a Global Forum to deal with this phenomenon, to track it, exchange information about it, and develop new ways to combat it. He said that Israel had a role to play, as well. 3. DIVISIONS WITH THE AMERICAN JEWISH COMMUNITY OVER ISRAEL POLICY. (1) There are increasingly sharp left-right divisions (J Street vs. AIPAC) within the American Jewish community over Israel. Remarkably, rabbis are reluctant to discuss Israel in their sermons for fear of alienating one faction or another. (2) There was now a big debate over which groups can march in the annual New York City Israeli Independence Day parade, which take more liberal positions (e.g., New Israel Fund, J Street). It was generally felt best to have a "big tent" so the Democratic Party left-leaning people were not excluded. (3) The kind of robust debate that occurs in Israel over Israeli policy, is blunted here by attacks against those who oppose the current government's policies in the West Bank. (4) There was a clearly established (Pew and Gallup polls) drop in support for Israel among self-identified Democrats (now under 50%, with over 80% for Republicans). This could feed into making Israel a partisan issue (one of the problems with Bibi's speech to Congress) for the first time in its history, a dangerous situation. 4. IRAN NUCLEAR NEGOTIATIONS AND BEYOND (1) This was the most emotional issue. Most of the participants who spoke on the topic (Sharansky, Kissinger, Honlein, Makovsky, Ross) were deeply skeptical of the Iranian nuclear negotiations. Clearly, Honlein and AIPAC will mount a major effort to block the agreement. There was a real foreboding (one participant called it a "panic") that the American Jewish community was going to be involved in a confrontation with the Administration, that the Republicans would use to try to drive a further wedge with Jewish voters over Israel-related issues. (2) At the same time, there was a recognition (e.g. Kissinger) that the President would be able to overcome a veto override fight, although just barely. (3) It was important to reassure Israel and Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States that any nuclear deal with Iran did not presage broader cooperation with Iran on regional issues. (Kissinger agreed, but felt it was inevitable over time, because Iran is a real country, with a long history) (3) Several speakers (e.g. Ross) suggested that Israel should now begin to talk with the White House about ways to repair the damage to the relationship over the nuclear talks (if there is an agreement). Indeed, the President proposed to Bibi, in his call after the formation of the government, just that, but was rebuffed, seeing any cooperation as signaling he was giving up the fight against the deal. (4) The options for a post-agreement reassurance included: (a) Reassurance that the agreement would not lead to a new U.S.-Iranian alliance in the region, at the expense of our traditional alliances. (b) Sophisticated military weapons to defend themselves against a resurgent Iran. (c) Defense treaties, that an attack by Iran would be considered an attack against the U.S. (But this was fraught with difficulty; would it be all forms of attack or only a nuclear attack) (d) Development of a common agenda with Israel, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the Gulf States. This has not been initiated. (5) The "snap-back" of sanctions was felt to be impractical. What would constitute a violation? Who would make the determination? Which sanctions would be re-imposed (US, EU, UN)? (6) There needed to be a clear declaration after the 10/15 year period of the agreement, that a nuclear-armed Iran is unacceptable, and the U.S. would every means to stop it. Likewise, the U.S. could not afford to disengage from the region, and had to lead the coalition against Iran. (7) There was almost no one who subscribed to the Administration's hope that over the 10/15 year period of the agreement, the Iranian regime would moderate. Far from it, the end of sanctions and the massive amount of money that would flow to Iran would strengthen the regime, provide more funds to support terrorist groups, and embolden them in the region. I hope this is helpful in shaping Hillary's positions on these difficult issues. But more broadly, she needs to understand the great angst in the Jewish community over the cascade of challenges I have described. The empathy and appreciation she can demonstrate, would itself be important and reassuring. Best wishes, Stu Eizenstat