EFTA01375003.pdf

Deutsche Bank Finding the weakest EM: macro adjustment in major EM economies has been limited since the Fed taper tantrum India has adjusted Brazil has not... ...and nor has TOrkiye Growth Growth Growth Fiscal 1.0 Fiscal ,..-- 1.9 -" --..- Fiscal nflation ..... Inflation Inflation balance balance balan Public \ Credit Public ` Credit Public / Credit debt growth debt growth debt growth FX Private FX Private FX Private valuation \ / debt valuation / debt valuation \ / debt • Reserve eal Rese eal Rese eal cover rates cover rates cover rates Current Current Current account account account Current Pre taper tantrum —Current —Pre taper tantrum Current —Pre taper tantrum The chart show vulnerability scores for ten indicators from 0 (least vulnerable) to 1 (most vulnerable) such that a move towards the centre of the web represents a reduction in vulnerability Source: Haver Anatyhcs and Deutsche Bank Deutsche Bank 24 CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0070027 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00216211 EFTA01375003