podesta_email_00173.txt

podesta-emails 1,630 words email

V11 P17 V16 P19

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All, Following up on our meeting yesterday, I thought I would send along some tracking highlights from the week and recent IA and NH polls (see below). Also, I wanted to share one test of our tracking/system that took place yesterday that models how we can push candidates on different themes: * * *Testing the Tracking/Rapid Response System* *McCain Says Iraq Making Political Progress* On Sunday, McCain told ABC's "This Week" that in Iraq, "There is *progress politically*. There is a process of reconciliation." Iraq campaign hits McCain with a press release on how he is "out of touch with Iraq reality." *McCain-backer Senator Graham Questions Iraqi Political Progress* Lindsay Graham, a McCain supporter, returned from the same Iraq trip with a more reality-based perspective. "I do expect them to deliver," Graham said in a phone interview upon returning from a Thanksgiving trip he and McCainmade to Iraq. "What would happen for me if there's no progress on reconciliation after the first of the year, I would be looking at ways to invest our money into groups that can deliver." [Associated Press<http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/11/27/AR2007112700408.html>, 11/27/07]. Graham also sent out an email in support of McCain's campaign on Monday and went and hit the trail with him in South Carolina.** *Campaign Pushes Reporters To Question McCain/Graham* Senator Graham's email and a release were moved to SC reporters by Hildebrand Tewes. A local reporter asked McCain about his Iraq disagreements with Graham and campaign trackers catch question on tape*:* http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q6_jbcG45ys * Tracking Video on Iraq Progress Waffling Sent to Press* The tracking video was put up on youtube and circulated to reporters following McCain. * * *Candidate Highlights * * * *Mitt Romney* - Romney spent time in Iowa and New Hampshire this past week. "*I know it's very popular to, in some places, to be critical of the president but let's not forget that the president has kept America safe these last six years, that has not been easy*." (Washington, IA 11/21) * "The president did a superb job in knocking down Saddam Hussein and replacing his military*. Now the question is what do we do now? And the key for me is making sure we do not have Iraq develop into a safe-haven of the nature Afghanistan was under the Taliban. And if we were to do what Barack Obama had suggested, which is just pullout, now that Al Qaeda is there, Al Qaeda would have had a dominant role potentially among the Sunnis in particular. And that would have made, that would have made Afghanistan look like child's play as a place to launch attacks against us. *"I am adamantly pro-life* and that every speck of human life is a child of God and therefore as part of being a civilized society we should protect the sanctity of human life and I recognize that I need to get a lot of people to agree with me, so I'll do my best to change the hearts and minds as mine has been." (Cedar Rapids, IA 11/20) * * *Rudy Giuliani* - Giuliani spent time in New Hampshire this past week. "What's the worst outcome in Iraq? The worst outcome in Iraq is if it were to become a haven–if *it became a state sponsor of terrorism like Iran is.*If it became an ally of Iran; that would be worst possible situation for us considering Iran wants to become a nuclear power. So that's the best and that's the worst." (Laconia, NH 11/24) "The Democrats do not say the word, 'Islamic Terrorism' cause they believe they are offending people by saying it, I imagine that's why, because I can't imagine why you wouldn't identify your enemy if you're running for President of the United States. *It would be like running in the 30's and not saying Nazi or running in the 50's, 60's and 70's running and not saying Communist.* They are our enemy and that's the way they organize themselves, we're not naming them something that they're not, that's the way they organize. But when I say Islamic Terrorism, I'm not insulting anyone. Anyone who is getting insulted is getting insulted for no reason, except Islamic Terrorists." (Bedford, NH 11/26) * * *John McCain* - McCain spent time in New Hampshire and South Carolina this past week. - All of McCain's events in New Hampshire were very well attended, packed house in most cases, despite bad weather. Further, he received standing ovations at a couple of those events. McCain at press conference 11/26 in Lexington, SC "*We are winning in Iraq and that's a fact.*" "My friends *we have succeeded*; and we have a long way to go; and we probably *have more sacrifice*. And I'm sorry. I'm sorry that we do." "I'm grateful that we Republicans have stood fast. *I'm grateful this president has stood fast*." * * *Fred Thompson* - Thompson spent time in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina this past week. - In Ames, Iowa on 11/21, Thompson said he would build a "*one million person army*." * * *Mike Huckabee* - Huckabee spent time in South Carolina this past week. Not much substance in any of his appearances this week. He spoke mostly about football and religion. POLL QUESTION: Romney is in a near heat with Huckabee in most IA polls, some have Romney clearly ahead. Rudy is running a distance third. In NH, Romney is in the lead with McCain or Guiliani in second place. See some recent polls below: Republican Polls *Rasmussen Reports* 11/27/2007 Iowa w/o Newt Gingrich Margin of Error = 3.0% [?<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/polling/margin-of-error.html>] Mike Huckabee<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Mike-Huckabee.html> 28% Mitt Romney<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Mitt-Romney.html> 25% Rudy Giuliani<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Rudy-Giuliani.html> 12% Fred Thompson<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Fred-Thompson.html> 11% Ron Paul <http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Ron-Paul.html> 5% John McCain<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/John-McCain.html> 4% Tom Tancredo<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Tom-Tancredo.html> 4% Duncan Hunter<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Duncan-Hunter.html> 1% Unsure<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Other-Unsure-Undecided-Republican-Voters.html> 10% *Source*<http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008__1/2008_presidential_election/iowa/republican_iowa_caucus> *Strategic Vision* 11/24/2007 Iowa w/o Newt Gingrich Margin of Error = 3.5% [?<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/polling/margin-of-error.html>] Mitt Romney<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Mitt-Romney.html> 26% Mike Huckabee<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Mike-Huckabee.html> 24% Rudy Giuliani<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Rudy-Giuliani.html> 14% Fred Thompson<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Fred-Thompson.html> 10% John McCain<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/John-McCain.html> 7% Ron Paul <http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Ron-Paul.html> 5% Tom Tancredo<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Tom-Tancredo.html> 3% Duncan Hunter<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Duncan-Hunter.html> 1% Unsure<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Other-Unsure-Undecided-Republican-Voters.html> 10% *Source* <http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/iowa_poll_112807.htm> *ABC News/Washington Post Poll* 11/16/2007 Iowa w/o Newt Gingrich Margin of Error = 4.4% [?<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/polling/margin-of-error.html>] Mitt Romney<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Mitt-Romney.html> 28% Mike Huckabee<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Mike-Huckabee.html> 24% Fred Thompson<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Fred-Thompson.html> 15% Rudy Giuliani<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Rudy-Giuliani.html> 13% John McCain<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/John-McCain.html> 6% Ron Paul <http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Ron-Paul.html> 6% Tom Tancredo<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Tom-Tancredo.html> 2% Duncan Hunter<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Duncan-Hunter.html> 1% Unsure<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Other-Unsure-Undecided-Republican-Voters.html> 4% None of these<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Other-Unsure-Undecided-Republican-Voters.html> 1% *Source*<http://www.abcnews.go.com/images/PollingUnit/1051a2IowaReps.pdf> *Research 2000 for KCCI TV and KCRG TV* 11/13/2007 Iowa w/o Newt Gingrich Margin of Error = 4.4% [?<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/polling/margin-of-error.html>] Mitt Romney<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Mitt-Romney.html> 27% Mike Huckabee<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Mike-Huckabee.html> 18% Rudy Giuliani<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Rudy-Giuliani.html> 16% Fred Thompson<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Fred-Thompson.html> 10% John McCain<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/John-McCain.html> 6% Ron Paul <http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Ron-Paul.html> 5% Tom Tancredo<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Tom-Tancredo.html> 2% Duncan Hunter<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Duncan-Hunter.html> 1% Unsure<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Other-Unsure-Undecided-Republican-Voters.html> 15% *Source* <http://www.kcci.com/news/14606593/detail.html> *American Research Group* 11/12/2007 Iowa w/o Newt Gingrich Margin of Error = 3.5% [?<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/polling/margin-of-error.html>] Mitt Romney<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Mitt-Romney.html> 26% Mike Huckabee<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Mike-Huckabee.html> 24% Rudy Giuliani<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Rudy-Giuliani.html> 11% Fred Thompson<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Fred-Thompson.html> 11% John McCain<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/John-McCain.html> 10% Ron Paul <http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Ron-Paul.html> 3% Tom Tancredo<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Tom-Tancredo.html> 1% Duncan Hunter<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Duncan-Hunter.html> 1% Unsure<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Other-Unsure-Undecided-Republican-Voters.html> 13% *Source* <http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/iarep8-712.html> *Rasmussen Reports* 11/12/2007 Iowa w/o Newt Gingrich Margin of Error = 3.1% [?<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/polling/margin-of-error.html>] Mitt Romney<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Mitt-Romney.html> 29% Mike Huckabee<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Mike-Huckabee.html> 16% Rudy Giuliani<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Rudy-Giuliani.html> 15% Fred Thompson<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Fred-Thompson.html> 14% John McCain<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/John-McCain.html> 6% Ron Paul <http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Ron-Paul.html> 4% Tom Tancredo<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Tom-Tancredo.html> 4% Duncan Hunter<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Duncan-Hunter.html> 2% Unsure<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Other-Unsure-Undecided-Republican-Voters.html> 9% *Source*<http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008__1/2008_presidential_election/iowa/democratic_iowa_caucus> *Strategic Vision* 11/11/2007 Iowa w/o Newt Gingrich Margin of Error = 3.7% [?<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/polling/margin-of-error.html>] Mitt Romney<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Mitt-Romney.html> 30% Mike Huckabee<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Mike-Huckabee.html> 19% Rudy Giuliani<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Rudy-Giuliani.html> 12% Fred Thompson<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Fred-Thompson.html> 11% John McCain<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/John-McCain.html> 7% Ron Paul <http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Ron-Paul.html> 5% Tom Tancredo<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Tom-Tancredo.html> 2% Duncan Hunter<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Duncan-Hunter.html> 1% Unsure<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Other-Unsure-Undecided-Republican-Voters.html> 13% *Source* <http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/iowa_poll_111407.htm> *Zogby International poll* 11/7/2007 Iowa w/o Newt Gingrich Margin of Error = 4.5% [?<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/polling/margin-of-error.html>] Mitt Romney<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Mitt-Romney.html> 31% Mike Huckabee<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Mike-Huckabee.html> 15% Rudy Giuliani<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Rudy-Giuliani.html> 11% Fred Thompson<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Fred-Thompson.html> 10% John McCain<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/John-McCain.html> 8% Ron Paul <http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Ron-Paul.html> 4% Tom Tancredo<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Tom-Tancredo.html> 3% Duncan Hunter<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Duncan-Hunter.html> 1% Unsure<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Other-Unsure-Undecided-Republican-Voters.html> 16% Other<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Other-Unsure-Undecided-Republican-Voters.html> 1% *Source* <http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1386> *CBS News/New York Times Poll* 11/7/2007 Iowa w/o Newt Gingrich Margin of Error = 4.0% [?<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/polling/margin-of-error.html>] Mitt Romney<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Mitt-Romney.html> 27% Mike Huckabee<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Mike-Huckabee.html> 21% Rudy Giuliani<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Rudy-Giuliani.html> 15% Fred Thompson<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Fred-Thompson.html> 9% John McCain<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/John-McCain.html> 4% Ron Paul <http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Ron-Paul.html> 4% Tom Tancredo<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Tom-Tancredo.html> 3% Duncan Hunter<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Duncan-Hunter.html> 2% Unsure<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Other-Unsure-Undecided-Republican-Voters.html> 14% Other<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Other-Unsure-Undecided-Republican-Voters.html> 1% *Source* <http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/poll_111307.pdf> Republican Polls *CNN/WMUR/University of New Hampshire Granite State Poll* 11/16/2007 New Hampshire w/o Newt Gingrich Margin of Error = 4.6% [?<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/polling/margin-of-error.html>] Mitt Romney<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Mitt-Romney.html> 33% John McCain<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/John-McCain.html> 18% Rudy Giuliani<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Rudy-Giuliani.html> 16% Ron Paul <http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Ron-Paul.html> 8% Mike Huckabee<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Mike-Huckabee.html> 5% Fred Thompson<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Fred-Thompson.html> 4% Tom Tancredo<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Tom-Tancredo.html> 1% Unsure<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Other-Unsure-Undecided-Republican-Voters.html> 14% Other<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Other-Unsure-Undecided-Republican-Voters.html> 1% *Source*<http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2007/11/19/thompson-skids-while-romney-paul-climb-in-nh-poll/> *CBS News/New York Times Poll* 11/11/2007 New Hampshire w/o Newt Gingrich Margin of Error = 5.3% [?<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/polling/margin-of-error.html>] Mitt Romney<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Mitt-Romney.html> 34% Rudy Giuliani<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Rudy-Giuliani.html> 16% John McCain<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/John-McCain.html> 16% Ron Paul <http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Ron-Paul.html> 8% Mike Huckabee<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Mike-Huckabee.html> 6% Fred Thompson<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Fred-Thompson.html> 5% Unsure<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Other-Unsure-Undecided-Republican-Voters.html> 14% Other<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Other-Unsure-Undecided-Republican-Voters.html> 1% *Source* <http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/poll_111307.pdf> *Rasmussen Reports* 11/8/2007 New Hampshire w/o Newt Gingrich Margin of Error = 3.6% [?<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/polling/margin-of-error.html>] Mitt Romney<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Mitt-Romney.html> 32% Rudy Giuliani<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Rudy-Giuliani.html> 17% John McCain<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/John-McCain.html> 16% Mike Huckabee<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Mike-Huckabee.html> 10% Fred Thompson<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Fred-Thompson.html> 7% Ron Paul <http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Ron-Paul.html> 4% Tom Tancredo<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Tom-Tancredo.html> 3% Duncan Hunter<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Duncan-Hunter.html> 2% Unsure<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Other-Unsure-Undecided-Republican-Voters.html> 10% *Source*<http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008__1/2008_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2008_new_hampshire_republican_primary> *Boston Globe poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire* 11/5/2007 New Hampshire w/o Newt Gingrich Margin of Error = 4.5% [?<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/polling/margin-of-error.html>] Mitt Romney<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Mitt-Romney.html> 32% Rudy Giuliani<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Rudy-Giuliani.html> 20% John McCain<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/John-McCain.html> 17% Ron Paul <http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Ron-Paul.html> 7% Mike Huckabee<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Mike-Huckabee.html> 5% Fred Thompson<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Fred-Thompson.html> 3% Unsure<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Other-Unsure-Undecided-Republican-Voters.html> 16% *Source*<http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2007/11/11/From_the_survey/> *Marist College Poll* 11/4/2007 New Hampshire w/o Newt Gingrich Margin of Error = 4.8% [?<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/polling/margin-of-error.html>] Mitt Romney<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Mitt-Romney.html> 33% Rudy Giuliani<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Rudy-Giuliani.html> 22% John McCain<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/John-McCain.html> 13% Mike Huckabee<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Mike-Huckabee.html> 7% Ron Paul <http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Ron-Paul.html> 7% Fred Thompson<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Fred-Thompson.html> 5% Tom Tancredo<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Tom-Tancredo.html> 1% Unsure<http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Other-Unsure-Undecided-Republican-Voters.html> 12% *Source* <http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/Marist-NH-Nov11.pdf>