EFTA00591873.pdf

POLIO PAKISTAN IPI INTERNATIONAL PEACE INSTITUTE BACKGROUND BRIEFS FOR BMGF SECURITY AND ACCESS HIGHLIGHTS STRATEGY SESSION: PAKISTAN 1. Drivers of insecurity and conflict NB: Because of the sensitive nature of The Tehreek Taliban Pakistan are a • The unstable security situation the subject matter, information grouping of major Taliban and allied along the Af/Pak border makes denoted with an asterisk (*) is groups, with over 40 sub- and access difficult. confidential and can be elaborated splinter groups. Some are purely • Despite the hostile environment, upon in oral briefings with Pl. criminal structures, others are experience shows that local leaders Pakistan was close to can be convinced not to block polio complete polio eradication eradication efforts. when a combination of AF OHANISTAN • Obstructing polio eradication external circumstances (conflict, terrorism, US ols4nEsi efforts is often used as leverage for drones and anti-US LNKA. &TIORINNADRStAN achieving other objectives. AMIT,WN sentiment, killing of KANO/FM • A high profile for polio eradication Osama bin Laden & IRAN 14LVAI4) in a region that has so many other preceding fake vaccination campaign, a Taliban- Own OIA l oa pCa ia INDIA problems makes it a target for anti- SALCONTIAAI PAKISTAN Western/anti-government attacks. imposed anti-polio drops traditional clan-based allies, whose • Post-election developments in ban, and attacks on health workers) as well as management issues services are used by many, as Afghanistan will have an impact on required.* The mainly Pashtun stability in the border regions with (relating to massive corruption, accountability, misreporting, too Taliban have links not only with Pakistan, and therefore on polio different Taliban and other groups in eradication. exclusive a focus on polio eradication to the detriment of other routine Afghanistan, but also with non- immunizations, poor infrastructure, Pashtun allies, both from other Army operations) created again a Pakistani provinces especially the continuing increase in the number Punjab, as well as with many foreign polio cases, mainly in the tribal and groups such as those from the Arab adjacent areas. world, Central Asia, Caucasus, and Europe. There is evidence of the Key groups involved in the nexus of involvement of external state actors insecurity and conflict differ in the as well.* four provinces, and there is no monolithic Pakistan Taliban entity. CONFIDENTIAL- DO NOT CIRCULATE EFTA00591873 POLIO PAKISTAN 2 The demands and grievances of the Agency, the difficulty is only in taking place between the main key domestic groups vary, although Taliban-controlled pockets. In Taliban grouping and a committee they invariably use the rhetoric of October/November 2013, a composed of members nominated Islam, sharia and jihad. In practice, madrassa close to the Taliban issued by both the Govemment and the however, they are characterized by a a fatwa stating that all vaccinations Taliban. This is a rocky path and clear pragmatism. After ploughing were fully compliant with Islam. The many interruptions can be expected. through the obligatory rhetoric, the Taliban have not taken issue or The current suicide operations and bottom line is about justice, pronounced themselves on this attacks on health staff are being corruption, jobs, basic services and fatwa, a positive sign. Parental carried out by splinter Taliban and infrastructure. refusals have also been recently allied groups who (i) are not part of recorded in provinces far outside the The appointment of Maulana the mainstream Taliban, (ii) have Taliban sphere of influence. Fazlullah of Swat to head the Pak little to gain and nothing to lose by a Taliban, a departure from all HANGB successful outcome, KOHAT previous such appointments, should AFGHANISTAN and (iii) are sabotaging not be over-emphasized in relation the talks. Miran Shah C to polio. In his Swat years, he had set Mir AMC BANNU up many illegal radio channels and broadcast fiery jihad sermons, NORTH WAZIRISTAN :TRArmak Impact malomnG earning the nickname "Mullah CtAcIno .Sasivora When attacks on health LAKKI MARWAT Radio? However, the post 9/11 Am °Sham workers are analyzed, it SOUTH WAZIRISTAN history of Pakistan Army-Taliban WonaC Jandaall emerges that about a deals show that these have TANK quarter are directly invariably been violated by the related to the polio former. * eradication campaign. The polio eradication ban was DERA ISMNL KHAN The majority are a mix imposed in June 2011 by a Taliban PAKISTAN of attacks on the group closely allied to the Pakistan Nalb-Wen INDIA security and other Frontier Province Government, i.e. by the "good militias accompanying ri Palm* Taliban". Extensive field research by """AdWITRAWOlid health workers (a Mb& Ann IPI shows that the ban and parental declared target of the refusal have both less to do with Trends Taliban), retaliation for unrelated Islam, and more with holding the issues, selection of health workers By mid-2013, as a result of efforts, (hence wages) based on exclusion of authorities hostage to their including by IPI, there was a many groups and sub-tribes; and demands, including electricity, noticeable softening in the Taliban some attacks are related to property roads, stoppage of drone attacks, position, although the ban was not issues. and a spectrum of health services officially lifted.* However, in the beyond anti-polio drops. There is second half of 2013, the situation little difficulty in delivering the anti- was worsened by the following polio drops as part of routine factors: the newly-elected vaccinations — the high profile Government still has not in any accorded to polio often becomes concrete manner pushed polio counter-productive. Sometimes eradication; corruption has remote hamlets are bypassed using continued; and a number of Taliban parental refusal as an excuse. leaders, including the head It cannot be baldly stated that the Hakimullah Mehsud, were droned to ban "holds in Waziristan" — but death, which led to a new cycle of mainly in those areas of North Taliban suicide and other attacks Waziristan Agency where the against the Army and Army Taliban hold power, or where there is operations against the Taliban. no security; in South Waziristan Consultations and negotiations are CONFIDENTIAL- DO NOT CIRCULATE EFTA00591874 POLIO PAKISTAN Prospects for 2014 & 2015 Recommendations Even if the current negotiations • First and foremost, while BMGF is a eventually bring positive outcomes, very high-profile donor and seen as there is no guarantee that all the a perpetual benefactor (jobs, sub- and splinter groups will fall in funds) the Foundation should line. If the talks fail, will the Pakistan refrain from taking any kind of Army undertake targeted or broader high-profile role in security-related operations in the North Waziristan issues. It should obviously continue Agency? This, too, depends on what its financial support and discreet happens across the border in pressure on the civilian Afghanistan and whether the post- Government, but not in a manner election Kabul regime will be which reaches the media and considered friendly to Pakistan or irritates not only the Taliban but all not. * who have issues with "the Americans".* All the militant and allied groups in the tribal belt are also waiting to see • BMGF should encourage, in fact developments in Afghanistan as of insist, that the Pakistan national mid-zoM onwards. There will be authorities pay equal attention to continued pockets of insecurity on all routine immunizations, and not the Pakistan side of the tribal belt, simply to polio — this is a huge exacerbated by an inflow of Afghan irritant among recipient Pashtun refugees from the provinces communities which see diseases bordering Pakistan — all these factors which kill being ignored in favor of will have a negative effect on the one which "merely cripples" . very geographic areas where access • In particular, BMGF should insist on is a problem. better accountability and There are reports that the transparency in the use of the Government is preparing for a worst- massive donor funding for polio case scenario with 3 million Afghans eradication. * fleeing into Pakistan over the summer. CONFIDENTIAL- DO NOT CIRCULATE EFTA00591875