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3 January 2018
HY Corporate Credit
HY Multi Sector.Media. Cable & Satellite
Modest Yield with Safety
CCM Merger. We believe MotorCity will be able to further reduce leverage
owing to its strong free cash flow generation. With this report we are
maintaining our Buy rating on MOTOR 6.0% Senior Unsecured Notes due 2022
($102.5, 5.2% YTW. 300bps STW).
For 2017, we project CCM Merger to generate Adjusted EBITDA of $130.0
million (+8.8% versus $119.5 million). Factoring in interest expense of $32.0
million, capital expenditures of $10.0 million, dividends of $5.0 million and $4.0
million in tax distributions, we project CCM Merger to generate free cash flow
of 879.0 million. Achieving this level of free cash flow will de-lever the
company to 4.5x at the end of the year. Factoring in a cash balance of $52.7
million, we project net leverage at 4.1x by the end of 2017.
For 2018, we project CCM Merger to generate Adjusted EBITDA of $132.0
million (+1.5% versus $130.0 million). Factoring in interest expense of $29.0
million, capital expenditures of $30.0 million, dividends of 55.0 million and $5.0
million in tax distributions, we project CCM Merger to generate free cash flow
of $63.0 million. Achieving this level of free cash flow will de-lever the
company to 4.0x at the end of the year. Factoring in a cash balance of $52.7
million, we project net leverage at 3.6x by the end of 2018.
Exhibit 1: CCNil Mower i11.
2016 (N 2016 (A) LTM 2017 le 2019 (El
EINTDA 61222 $119.5 61280 $130.0 $132.0
Less: Cash Interest 46.0 44.3 44.7 32.0 29.0
Less: Capital Expenditures 13.7 13.7 10.3 10.0 30.0
Less: Dividends 0.0 0.0 1.3 5.0 5.0
Less: Tax distributions 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 5.0
Free Cash Row $62.5 $61.6 $71.7 679.0 $133.0
Total Debt 5707.6 $661.3 5600.0 5587.1 $524.1
Cash 351 42.6 62.7 52.7 52.7
Leverage 6.8x 5.5x 4.7x 4.5x 4.0x
NM Leverage 6.6x 5.2x 4.3x 4.1x 3.6x
Coverage 2.7x 2.7x 2.9x 4.1x 4.6x
Savo. Conway Atria and Clatsch• Os* =Myna
Downside risks to our call include increased promotional activity which could
curtail MotorCity's market share arid general domestic macroeconomic risks.
Gaming and Leisure Properties. We believe the company will be able to utilize
its premium valuation, ample liquidity and low-cost debt to complete additional
accretive acquisitions. In our view, GLPI will be able to engage in additional
deals, outright acquisitions or sale-leaseback transactions, primarily with
private operators, although there may be exceptions. Our thesis is based on
the fact that private operators often do not have access to low-cost debt as
public operators, and there is a degree of 'friction cost" when dealing with
public companies, given that public shareholders expect transactions to close
at significant premiums from current trading levels. Lastly, private operators
may show more willingness to accept GLPI equity as a form of compensation.
At this juncture, we rate the 5.375% Senior Unsecured Notes 2026 ($107.4,
4.3% YTW, 193bps STW) with a Buy rating based on price. Supporting our Buy
rating on GLPI, we note that this credit offers (1) stable revenue and EBITDA
Page 82 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0086641
CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00232825
EFTA01385357
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