EFTA01809349.pdf

Office of Terje Rod-Larsen •L i> April 16 update 16 April, 2012 B B Article 1. The Washington Post Events do not wait as Obama plays a delay defense Jackson Diehl Article 2. Project Syndicate A Post-Arab Spring Strategy Volker Perthes Article 3. NYT Europebs Economic Suicide Paul Krugman EFTA_R1_00167746 EFTA01809349 Article 4. Today's Zaman Israeli-American relations after AIPAC Summit: Opportunities in 2013 and Iran Emrah Usta Article 5. National Defense University Press The Evolution of Saudi Security and Enforcement Policies on Communication Naef Bin Ahmed Al-Saud B Article 1. The Washington Post Events do not wait as Obama plays a delay defense Jackson Diehl B AprilB16 Barack Obamabs foreign policy strategy in this election year might be best summed up by William F. Buckleybs famous promise: to b stand athwart history , yelling stop.bushing Israel to the edge. The race between the Republicans and Democrats in the US is being influenced by lobbying groups. In response to AIPAC, which asks for a more hawkish stance from the US, the J Street movement (a pro-Israel group that supports a two state solution) offers an alternative discourse. The Obama administration, on the eve of the upcoming presidential elections, may take action to ensure that this movement becomes more influential. The J Street Group which favors more peaceful policies in the Palestinian- Israeli issue is one of the groups that the Obama administration could rely on to advance diplomatic solutions in respect to the Iranian issue. It is not possible for the Obama administration to be successful in the upcoming elections if it wavers between the two groups. It is also likely that relations between the US and Israel will become more EFTA_R1_00167747 EFTA01809350  tense after 2013. In 2013, the US, which is reluctant to take action for a military operation against Iran in 2012, will have to address the stronger Israeli stance and policies. It is certain that Israel, which sees the nuclear capacity of Iran as a threat to its security and national integrity is not satisfied that Washingtonbs policies see diplomatic negotiations as a necessity. Israelbs basic concern at this point is that lranbs existing nuclear policy could advance. For Iran, which will likely become successful in its nuclear program, the Israeli weapons and missile systems will not be harmful to its nuclear arsenal. In addition to the probable repercussions of the Arab Spring, the Israeli predicament is further affected by the democratization efforts and demands in the region. This is one of the reasons why Israel, after losing its allies and friends in the region after the Arab Spring, views Iran as the only enemy. A probable Israeli-Iran conflict in 2013 can become a turning point for the current policies of the US vis-C-vis Israel. This could dramatically affect Israeli-American relations in the aftermath of 2013. However, the probable attitude of Turkey as a rising star that assumes lead roles in NATO, in a potential Israeli-Iranian conflict is not reviewed or evaluated in the 2013 American policies. Turkeybs growing role is shown by the fact that a possible Israeli attack against Iran in 2013 is as tied to the NATO Anti-missile Sheild System in KC<recik as it is to American elections. B Emrah Usta is a US foreign policy analyst and a fellow at the Center for American Studies at SC<Ieyman Sah University in DOstanbul. B B B Article 5. National Defense University Press The Evolution of Saudi Security and Enforcement Policies on Communication Naef Bin Ahmed Al-Saud B April 2012 -- Communication, including social media, is vital to Saudi policy concemse.rsuant to both national and internal security. The evolution of Saudi security policy on communication and social media is being derived to a significant extent from recent externalprecedents. particularly government actions in the United States and Great Bream, as well as India, Israel, and other countries. The consensus among such countnes appears to be that anbterronsm and other ant:crime objecbves, including public safely. civil order. and governmental alleviation of economic hardship, take precedence over political notions such as democracy. Despite broadly analogous restrictions under American. British, Indian. and Israel, laws and government actions. some an the West seem to romanticize social media as a tool for protest in Saudi Arabia. It is therefore ironic that by md•2011, social media in Arnenca. Europe. and Israel expedited the organization of large illegal protests by citizens against their own governments, as a function of economic deprivation that could not be adequately resolved by political activates associated with democracy. In recent years. Saudi government policies have focused on economic development intended in part to address the concerns of its citizens. which has so far tangentially preempted widespread social mediaborgaria0 unrest that other countries have begun to experience. This article argues that Saudi Arabia and many Other nations have found that Communication access. isethcularly including social media and the Internet Qeneno v may be:h and co-opt enbOthremment WOWS and aimingl acts including terrorism. Moreover. and analogous to Wage brother governments such as those Of the United States and Israel, communication infrastructure may be deployed by the Saudi oovemment t0 track and arrest criminals includinq Potential terronsts. In feat relevant Saudi laws may be deemed analogous to U.S. national and Internal security policies upheld by Supreme Court decisions. Saudi laws may also be broadly analocious to restrictive Indian Internet laws in the woddbe law% democracy. Next, the article argues that the Kinadombs experience with Internet technologies is that they OrOvide effective cormnunicaton methods toward rehabilitation of (*boasts and other cnminals. The analysis concludes by obsenana that America and EFTA_R1_00167748 EFTA01809351 other counties may wish to learn from the Saudi experience in antiterrorism and other criminal rehabilitation through social media. However. social mediaborganized protests by Israelis due to economic hardship may possibly lead to greater Israel, compassion for Palestinian economic hardship under occupation. Lessons from Israel and Great Britain By mid-2011. the Israeli government faced public protests. which were brought about by widespread economic deprivation. Some estimate over a quarter million Israelis participatedin protests at some pointbsimilarty organized by cell phone and social media, particularly Facebook.1 An editorial in Londonbs Financial Times stated, "a perception that too many people cannot make ends meet, or even live in outright poverty, motivates Israelis as it did Tunisians and Egyptians in January and February. . [I]t is evident that public spending on education and healthcare is low partly because the [Israeli] governmentbs military budget is so high. Nothing better illustrates how a peace deal with the Palestinians would benefit Israeli society as a whole. "2 Among the poorest are lsraelbs Arab citizens and orthodox Jews.3 Another commentator in the Financial Times points out that Israeli discontent is also caused to a significant extent by a widespread resentment that the country may be under the inf luence of powerful, small interest groups including Israeli settlers in the occupied territories: the "settlers . . . enjoy cheap, subsidized housing and benefit from public services that are far superior to those available to Israelis living inside the Green Line."4 Such mounting evidence of resentment driven by social mediab4 Israelis inside Israel against Israeli settlers in the occupied territhtlesbrnay have a powerful, positive impact on the direction of Middle East peace. Palestinians living under far worse economic conditions due to Israeli occupation in the West Bank and Gaza are presumably observing the large Israeli protests and contemplating their own moves. Of course, one concern for peaceful protest is whether a government indiscriminately kills nonviolent civilians in significant numbers. For example, in August 2011, after many months of Syrian military actions against civilian protesters, Saudi Arabia, followed by Bahrain and Kuwait, withdrew their ambassadors, while King Abdullah requested that the Syrian "killing machine" be stopped.5 Thus, the Kingdombs leadership has been observing developments in Israel as a test of social mediabs effectiveness in organizing nonviolent protest to create significant shifts in security and economic policy. Since Palestinian welfare and fair treatment are among Saudi Arabiabs vital interests, there are two social media questions that matter to the national security interests of both Israel and Saudi Arabia: Will orthodox Jews, Israeli Palestinians, and Palestinians in the occupied territories seize the historic opportunity to organize together via social media to create meaningful nonviolent protests against Israelbs pro-settler funding policies that are a root cause of economic deprivation for Israelbs majority of civilians living outside of settlements and those living inside the occupied territories? Would Israel be motivated to change its policies as a result of widespread Palestinian social mediaborganized protests against economic deprivation of Palestinians in Israel and the occupied territories? In any case, such protests have not been limited to Israel and the Arab world. In early August 2011, more reverberations from riots in Tunisia and Egypt appeared across London and other locations in the United Kingdom, turning several areas into "quasiwar zones." These events were organized by social media including Twitter and Facebook, as well as BlackBerry Messenger6 The police called the unrest the worst in memory, and the streets of London were flooded with EFTA_R1_00167749 EFTA01809352  16,000 police officers.7 At the height of the 2011 London riots, which seem to be known as Britainbs "intifada of the underclass," one of Prime Minister David Cameronbs former advisors pointed out that the rioting youth "have nothing to lose and nothing to gain. "8 British rioters believed that their lives were going nowhere because they were "further than ever from the sort of wealth that makes them adults. A career, a home of your ownbike Minas that can be ruined by notsbare out of sight "9 One woman who carried a television out of a store justified her action by stating. "Ibm taking my taxes back "10 According to an editorial in the Financial Times in early August 2011, the government "lost control of En9landbs streets. (The unrest] has exploded into an orgy of arson, looting and feral violence which has spread through the capital and to other English cities. . . The government must now do what is necessary to regain control of the nationbs streets."11 Cameron tackled the threat of social media, stating during an emergency parliamentary session: "Everyone watching these horrific actions will be struck by how they were organized via social media." noting the govemmentbs need to "stop people communicating via these Web sites and services when we know they are plotting violence, disorder and criminality. . . . Free f low of information can be used for good. But it can also be used for ill. And when people are using social media for violence, we need to stop them. "12 According to Cameron, the British government would not be deterred by "phoney human rights concerns. "13 Beyond such declarations, one mainstream British publication observed that the London rioters were able to "terrorize" their own countrymen, and that the government considered deploying the British army into the streets.14 Thus. Saudi Arabiabs security policy on communication including the Internet and social media may need to evolve in this direction as well, with contingency plans for Saudi military deployment to protect the people and in support of the Kingdombs other security and law enforcement institutions. At the same time. it is crucial to note that in early 2011, before the protests broke out in Israel and Great Britain. the Kingdom announced $35 billion in government spending for unemployment benefits, housing subsidies, and other social programs. With these developments in mind, Saudi policies continue to address economic securityrdbv*mal extension socialmedia at a function ofnational andinterne secunlvbw hich would appear to be roughly analogous to conclusions reached by Israel and Great Britain. Ultimately. Western leaders do not want to see "social media" sources organize large protests erupting in Riyadh or downtown Beijing. The serious risk is that Western oil traders and other Western financiers could get nervous due to miscalculations of risktrus"*°°"`"*sky*cke.band Western economies could finally collapse. According to a report, curiously entitled "America Fears the Great Brawl of China." there are an "estimated 18.000 riots, strikes and protests that break out in China" each year.15 Consider the global economic destruction if such unrest were to become much more organized through social media or other Internet facilities.16 According to one Western media dispatch on China. "Since the nationwide student-led protests of 1989. the educated urban elite has mostly been politically Quiescent But the party fears them far more than it does unruly farmers or migrants. Beijingbs center was flooded with police earlier this year when calls for an Arab-style b iasmine revolutionb circulated on the internet "17 A postscript on developments in Libya makes clear that economic deprivation is at the root of instability and may not necessarily alter circumstances by simply changing regimes. According to Anthony Cordesman, "We need to recognize that Libyabr,ke as only other States that have become increasingly unstable since Of* 20110is EFTA_R1_00167750 EFTA01809353 not going to suddenly emerge with stable politics, effective governance, security and human rights for its people, or an economy that offers lobs, development, and a fair share of the nationbs income."18 The risk is that when established governments fall, violence and instability may grow over the long term, rather than Western notions of democracy or peace.19 Social Media Impacts on Saudi Security Laws In 2009, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) arrested a social worker for using Twitter by spreading information to protesters about American police movements at the Group of 20 summit of global leaders in the United States. It turned out that while protesters were using social media to try to help other protesters escape arrest, the police were also monitoring the social media site to keep informed about protesters. The protester who was arrested claimed that the FBI wanted to crush "dissent."20 Protesters and pundits in other countries may also make false claims about crushing dissent when, as in the United States, Great Britain, and other countries, the government imperative is to protect civilians from protesters who may turn violent. This extends to the Saudi governmentbs objective to monitor and defeat the use of social media in any potential terror-related or illegal means, which broadly parallels U.S. security policies upheld by Supreme Court decisions. A 2010 Supreme Court decision, Holder v. Humanitarian Law Project,21 made clear that almost all types of support for groups labeled as terrorists are banned,22 apparently even if the support may turn out to be advice favoring nonviolence. In 2008, the U.S. Government started an investigation leading to that court case when activists began planning to hold lame demonstrations against war.23 Analogous to the U.S. Supreme Courtbs decision in Holder v. Humanitarian Law Project, the Kingdom restricts those who might try to provide any type of support for terrorists, including communication, whether by social media or other means. Also analogous to FBI investigations, the Saudi government has been known to monitor groups in the Kingdom, or communications about the Kingdom focused on various types of innocent-sounding "rights," particularly when such rights may turn out to involve any type of communication or support whatsoever with respect to terrorism. Consider the following. In mid-June 2011, the Washington Post published a report on FBI raids of homes belonging to labor organizers and peace activists.24 The American activists appear to have publicly criticizedbffis via ' I meth" American foreign policy toward South America and the Middle East. They claimed that the U.S. Government was using antiterrorism policies as a pretext to target them for their political opinions.25 The FBI was looking toward the possibility that these citizens may have provided "material support"b which the atuens demedbfor Palestinians and Colombians on U.S. Government terror suspect lists.26 Most of the Americans raided were non-Muslim and, according to one of their lawyers, were "public non-violent activists with long, distinguished careers in public service, including teachers, union organizers and antiwar and community leaders."27 Thus, Saudi Arabiabs national security and internal security approaches do not appear to be more restrictive than the U.S. Governmentbs deployment of FBI raids on American activists and organizers who have used social media to spread political opinions criticizing U.S. foreign policy and possibly implicating "material support" for terror suspects. Even apart from terrorism, public safety is a paramount concern for government entities that may need to take action by monitoring communication, whether through social media or analogously by cell phone. EFTA_R1_00167751 EFTA01809354  For example, in mid-August 2011, San Francisco transportation officials turned off cell phone underground service for several hours in order to maintain public safety by stopping a planned protest discovered on the Web site of a protest organizer.28 Some in the United States compared the San Francisco transportation agency strategy of temporarily cutting off cell phone use to former President Hosni Mubarakbs strategy of cutting off Internet and cell phone services in order to quell protests by the Egyptian people.29 Other research indicates that Mubarak may have made a mistake in doing so. When Egyptian cell phone and Internet services were disrupted on January 28, 2011, unrest apparently increased instead of decreased. The cutoff caused more civilians to become aware and interested, while more people became involved in communicating face-to-face with greater street presence, and communication became more decentralized and harder to control than simply large gatherings in Tahrir Square.30 (In contrast to the situation in Egypt involving communication cutoff, the Libyan uprising may have been relentless largely due to North Atlantic Treaty Organization support for the rebels including strategic bombing, access to drones and other intelligence, and other assistance.) San Franciscobs local government determined that it had a legal right to turn off cell phone service on its property under a 1969 ruling by the Supreme Court in Brandenburg v. Ohio.31 In this case, the Supreme Court decided that a government may stop speech that could incite activity considered unlawful (beyond merely advocating violence).32 In 2011, mass violence apparently did not occur within San Franciscobs transportation system, but the local government believed that violence might possibly occur imminently if it did not cut off communication. Thus, even in America, as in Saudi Arabia, it is legal for a government institution to cut off communication in the interests of public safety and security if there is a chance that it could prevent protests that might possibly lead to violencebff“nstsre" be 1"'"nthwhether or not violence later occurs. Analogous to the Supreme Court ruling in Brandenburg, other nations including Saudi Arabia and India place restrictions on speech that may possibly be communicated to incite unlawful activitYretherbYs'xial media or other means In mrd•20 11. for example, India issued Internet rules to strengthen secunty and place limits on information, including content that might be considered "insuSing' or "blasphemous' or 'harmful' to any country.33 Indian cyber cafC)s, Web sites, and search engines may be liable to the goyemment for any offending Internet content, including social media. According to the Indian government, its rules weigh security end freedom, deriving inspiration from laws in other democratic countries 34 According to the deputy minister responsible for information technology and commumcabon, Sachin Pilot "We must draw a distinction between freedom of expression and freedom of expression with intent to harm or defame sompone."35 Analogous to both Indian law and Me Supreme Counts holding in Brandenburg, under Saudi law, mainstream media (including the print media) and Internet sites (including blogs) are restricted from "damaging the countrybs public affairs or delivering insults to senior clerics, or -incrbno divisions between &fixers,' among other violations. 36 Also analogous to Indian law and the Supreme Counts holding in Holder v. Humanitarian Law Protect Saudi proposed laws pending in the Shuns Council would punish anyone who may be supporting terrorism by any means such as "harming the interests of the state" or 'endangering national unity."37 In Saudi Arabia, activism online hos thus far not created significant challenges to the Royal family or the rest of the government For example, a "day of rage Organized via social media, including Facebook fizzled out 3$ In any case King Abdullah has ensured that newspapers and by Implication social media have considerable freedom to Question religious clones, discuss the rights of women, report on police abuse, and so forth Thus, for example, religious. clerks may be criticized or questioned in public media or forums, but net personally attacked 39 When foreigners aim to influence events under a particular nabonbs confrOt, whether by sou., media or Otherwise. that nation may take it upon itself to erne' Or repel such foreigners By further extrapolation EFTA_R1_00167752 EFTA01809355 a nation may request assistance from another in such security mattersb as Bahrain had to ask for Saudi assistance in 2011 due to concerns about the disruptive influence of foreigners that wouldappear to heve been greeter national security threats than those faced by Israel from self-proclaimed Westerners aiming to visit Palestinian lands under occupation and use social media to spreadinternational awareness. Saudi Social Media Strategies While the Western approach toward violence caused by social media substantially concentrates on punishment 40 0 separate example of the Saudi govemmentbs social media approach to counterterrorism is the Sakina program, which has achieved considerable success in persuading radically inclined youth toward moderation.41 The program is run by a nongovernmental organization supported by the Interior Ministry Educator Ministry and Islamic Affairs Ministry. Salunabs religious experts deploy social media to hold online discussions in chat moms with people who initially seem to support extremist views. The experts aim to ask online extremist sympathizers why they seem to believe in religious violence and then the experts point out how those views contradict the peaceful teachings ofIslam. Such dialogues via social media have had a multiplier effect against violence due to their perpetual availability online where others can read and share them. Violence in the Kingdom has been drastically reduced since authorities started becoming involved in such social media. Saudi advice has been sought by numerous other Arab countries wishing to structure similar antiviolence social media programs.* One analyst in the West observed that the Sakina program has "international appear as it draws audiences and interaction throughout the Middle East as well as the West andparticularly the United States.43 It thus stands to reason that it asked, Saudi Arabia would be willing to advise Western institutions on structuring effective social media programs to rehabilitate a broad spectrum of violent criminals typically indigenous to and rampant in the Westb not merely limited to terrorists. Coincidentally, by late June/early July 2011, several mainstream Western media (not just social media) reports appeared concerning Googlebs self-proclaimed "idea" to try using social media against extremists. Curiously. Saudi Arabiabs preexisting Sakina program was not emphasized. But at least one of the leaders of the new Google project was formerly with the U.S. Department of State. Is it possible that State Department personnel who now work with social media against extremism may not be aware of highly successful preexisting Saudi social media programs against extremism? It would appear that top individuals in the Kingdom may need to be more high profile in deploying mainstream media to proclaim the success of particular Saudi policies, especially pertaining to broad social media access and effective nonviolence programs. As one mainstream European media source pointed out about the new Google social media antiextremist program. "to solve the problems of violent extremism, clever technology and algorithms are only a sideshow. "44 The Saudi approach to antiviolence programs does not rely on social media programs alone, but further deploys highly qualified experts, along with available rehabilitation programs and incentives for success. Tangentially. given the importance of Palestinian welfare to Saudi national security, the Kingdombs policies may develop in the direction of supporting social media to provide similar success in encouraging Israelis. Palestinians. and other Arabs to get to know each other at least initially over the Internet while discussing sports, photography, and other common interestsbinauchn° 70000 MOW% 45 These den physical intrachons between Palestinians and Israelis tend to be constricted to army checkp0ints 4$ Al least one Faceted( site appears to encourage peaceful coexistence as Israeli President Shirnon Penn and the President of the Palestinian Authonly both posted welcome messages 47 Behold the future of Middle East Peace Conclusion It is worth noting that social media are increasingly being used by Arabs and Israelis to promote communication toward peaceful coexistent.* h eff0rtS deserve SOpp0il as an ev01vin0 part Of Saudi security Policy On social media, Pailiculany if Some Of the many Israelis new Protesting their gavernmentbS economic deprivation 4130 use social mad,a to EFTA_R1_00167753 EFTA01809356 help Palestinians under occupation travel to Tel Aviv to protest economic deprivation without access to meaningful careers. decent housing. *odd-class health care. or education. Ultimately, further development toward welttargeted Saudi-supported social media policies could catalyze profound achievements toward Middle East peace. B B His Royal Highness Brigadier General Naef Bin Ahmed Al-Saud of the Royal Saudi Army holds a doctorate from Cambridge University. His professional focus includes military special operations and international diplomacy. B B B B B B B B EFTA_R1_00167754 EFTA01809357