Re: Huckabee leads in Iowa-- new DMR poll

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Don¹t you think with Romney and Giuliani weakening that McCain has a significant chance of winning in New Hampshire? Stan On 12/2/07 3:56 PM, "Begala, Paul" <[email protected]> wrote: > Yet more evidence that we should include Huckabee and drop McCain from our > survey research. If we're only going to look at three Republicans -- and I > think that's right -- I think those three are Romney, Giuliani and Huckabee. > > > From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Tom Matzzie > Sent: Sunday, December 02, 2007 3:46 PM > To: John Podesta; Stan Greenberg; Begala, Paul; Susan McCue > Cc: Tara McGuinness; Jim Gerstein; Ana Iparraguirre; Zach Schwartz > Subject: Huckabee leads in Iowa-- new DMR poll > > Huckabee new GOP leader in Iowa Poll > By JONATHAN ROOS € REGISTER STAFF WRITER € Copyright 2007, Des Moines Register > and Tribune Company € December 2, 2007 > > Mike Huckabee has leaped ahead of Republican presidential rival Mitt Romney in > Iowa, seizing first place in a new Des Moines Register poll of likely > Republican caucus participants. > Huckabee wins the support of 29 percent of Iowans who say they definitely or > probably will attend the Republican Party's caucuses on Jan. 3. That's a gain > of 17 percentage points since the last Iowa Poll was taken in early October, > when Huckabee trailed both Romney and Fred Thompson. > > Other poll findings indicate that the former Arkansas governor is making the > most of a low-budget campaign by tapping into the support of Iowa's social > conservatives. > > Romney, who has invested more time and money campaigning in the state than any > other GOP candidate, remains in the thick of the Iowa race with the backing of > 24 percent of likely caucusgoers. But that's a drop of 5 points since October > for the former Massachusetts governor. > > Former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani, the frontrunner in national polls, holds > third place in Iowa at 13 percent, despite waging a limited campaign in the > state. > > Thompson, a former U.S. senator from Tennessee who waited until September to > formally enter the race for the Republican nomination, has slipped to fourth > place in the Iowa Poll, at 9 percent. > > U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona and U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas are tied for > fifth place at 7 percent each. Four other candidates trail them. The new Iowa > Poll, conducted over four days last week, has a margin of error of plus or > minus 4.4 percentage points. > > The complexion of the race could easily change in the last month of intense > campaigning ahead of the caucuses, which lead off the presidential nominating > process. Roughly six in 10 likely Republican caucus participants say they > could still be persuaded to support another candidate. Poll participant Thelma > Whittaker, a retired teacher from Columbus Junction, is leaning toward > supporting Huckabee in the caucuses but also could back Romney. > > "I'm a very conservative Republican and I feel that (Huckabee) follows through > with those ideas," said Whittaker, who is troubled by the country's moral > decline. On the other hand, she wonders if Huckabee is a strong enough > candidate to win the White House for the GOP. > > When it comes to Romney, "I go along with a lot of his ideas,'" Whittaker > said, "but he's also done some flip-flopping that scares me on issues like > abortion and taxes." > > Huckabee has come a long way since last May, when he languished in a tie for > sixth place in the Register's poll, garnering the support of just 4 percent of > likely caucus participants then. > > His campaign picked up steam after he notched a surprising second-place finish > in the Iowa Republican Party's straw poll in August. > > The Register's new scientific poll shows Huckabee, a former Baptist minister, > leading Romney 38 percent to 22 percent among those who consider themselves > born-again Christians. In October, Romney edged Huckabee 23 percent to 18 > percent among people in that group, which accounts for one-half of all likely > caucus participants. > > Similarly, Huckabee holds a 2-to-1 lead over Romney among those who say it is > more important for a presidential candidate to be socially conservative than > fiscally conservative. > > Here are some other key comparisons for the two leading candidates in the > poll: > > - Huckabee leads Romney among men, 28 percent to 20 percent. They run > neck-and-neck among women. > > - Huckabee draws more support than Romney among caucusgoers between the ages > of 35 and 54, while Romney does better among younger adults. They compete > almost evenly among those 55 or older. > > Older Iowans generally turn out in larger numbers for the caucuses than do > younger adults. > > - Both candidates are regarded favorably by more than three-fourths of likely > caucus participants. > > - Huckabee outscores Romney and the rest of the Republican field as the > candidate seen as the most socially conservative, the most civil in tone and > the most principled. > > - Romney leads on six characteristics, including the most presidential of the > GOP candidates, the most fiscally conservative and the best able to bring > about real change. > > Giuliani, the poll's third-place finisher, is seen as the most electable of > the candidates and also has a slight edge as the most effective negotiator and > the best able to bring Republicans and Democrats together. > > On the other hand, Giuliani is seen by more likely caucus participants as the > most ego-driven of the candidates. > > Other poll findings show that Giuliani is more of a polarizing figure than the > other top-tier candidates in Iowa: > > - Thirty-four percent of likely caucusgoers see him as one of the worst > choices for the Republican nomination. Paul ranks second in that category, at > 26 percent. > > - While 61 percent regard Giuliani favorably, 38 percent have unfavorable > feelings toward him. Only Paul has a higher unfavorable mark in the poll, at > 44 percent. > > "He's too New York," Whittaker, the retired teacher, said of Giuliani. "He > doesn't understand us. He doesn't care to understand us." > > But poll participant Mark Pottorff, an agronomist from Sergeant Bluff, sides > with those who have a high regard for Giuliani, citing his experience as a > federal prosecutor and big-city mayor. > > "He is tough on crime and during September 2001 he led New York City through > some very tough and dark days," said Pottorff, 51. "I think he has the ability > and the fortitude to stand up to dictators and terrorists." > > Pottorff's second choice for the Republican presidential nomination is Romney, > citing his experience in business and government and his commitment to his > family. > > Other poll findings show Thompson, the fourth-place finisher overall, tying > with Huckabee as the candidate who is most like Ronald Reagan ‹ the Republican > president often cited by party leaders as their role model. > > Paul, an opponent of the war in Iraq, has the dubious distinction as the GOP > candidate who outpolls his rivals as the most negative contender. > > But Paul, who has a loyal following and a well-funded campaign, has been > creeping up in the Register's polls this year of likely caucus participants, > matching McCain's level of support in the latest survey. > > Reporter Jonathan Roos can be reached at (515) 284-8443 or [email protected] >