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J.P. Morgan North America Corporate Research 03 November 2014 Neutral Ryanair RYA.I, RYA ID Price: E7.62 FQ2:15 Results - 60 Second Update - ALERT 31 October 2014 RYA FQ2 (fiscal year ends March) Net Income missed JPMe and US & European Airlines/Equity company consensus by a touch on the back of in-line Revenue. Jamie Baker Ac Management lifted F15 Net Income guidance, which implies an average of 13% upside to JPMe and 10% upside to consensus, reflective of stronger volume outlook, and better cost control than we previously expected. Bloomberg JPMA BAKER <GO> J.P. Morgan Securities LLC • Net Income of E598m was 2% below JPMe and 1% below Wenchang Ma, CFA consensus, on the back of €2.04bn Revenue (+7% yoy), which was in line with JPMe and 4% ahead of consensus. Both passenger revenue and JP. Morgan Sec es plc ancillary revenue were as we expected. Fuel cost in FQ2 was 2% less Nishant Mani than JPMe while 7% higher than consensus. • F15 Net Income guidance is lifted by an average of 17% to E750m- J.P. Morgan Securities LLC 770m from €650m. The updated guidance implies upside of 12-15% to European Credit Research current JPMe of €671mn, and 8-11% to consensus E694mn. Upside from Danielle Ward, CFA guidance is driven by stronger H2 traffic outlook and better unit cost — Ryanair management now sees 16% yoy H2 traffic growth vs. JPMe 9% yoy; F15 unit cost is expected to be -4% yoy (vs. JPMe -0.5%), or flat J.P. Morgan Securities plc ex-fuel (JPMe +3.5%). • Valuation: RYA currently trades on 2015e EV/EBITDAR of 7.5x and PIE of 13.6x, vs Eli multiples of 6.6x and 11.3x, and 5.1x/8.1x for legacy peers average. • Credit perspective: Ryanair's net cash position improved from E158m at FYE14 to E618m as of 30-Sep, with lease-adjusted leverage now 0.1x (flat from Q1). Ryanair's board has approved the payment of a €520m special dividend (announced with FQ1 results), to be paid in Feb'15. Capex over H114 was E293m (flat YoY), primarily relating to aircraft pre-delivery payments, spare engine purchases and two aircraft deliveries. The group's order for 200 additional Boeing Max aircraft (100 firm + 100 options, to be delivered from 2019) is subject to EGM approval in November, as part of the group's policy to maintain a young (average <5yrs) and cost-efficient fleet. We are Overweight Ryanair credit, 2021 notes mid-price 101.5, Z-spread 98bp, close 31-Oct. • Conf call at 11:00 GMT. Dial-in: Pin 5995 2585. I See page 2 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. witen.jpmorganmarkets.com s being provided for the exclusive use of JOCELYN CHOKKATTU at JP MORGAN CHASE & clients of J.P. Morgan. EFTA01103701  Jame Baker North America Corporate Research 03 November 2014 J.P.Morgan Analyst Certification: The research analyst(s) denoted by an "AC" on the cover of this report certifies (or, where multiple research analysts are primarily responsible for this report, the research analyst denoted by an "AC" on the cover or within the document individually certifies, with respect to each security or issuer that the research analyst covers in this research) that: (1) all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and (2) no part of any of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the research analyst(s) in this report. For all Korea-based research analysts listed on the front cover, they also certify, as per KOFIA requirements, that their analysis was made in good faith and that the views reflect their own opinion, without undue influence or intervention. Important Disclosures • Market Maker: JPMS makes a market in the stock of Ryanair. • Market Maker/ Liquidity Provider: J.P. Morgan Securities plc and/or an affiliate is a market maker and/or liquidity provider in Ryanair. • Client: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following company(ies) as clients: Ryanair. • Client/Non-Investment Banking, Securities-Related: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following company(ies) as clients, and the services provided were non-investment-banking, securities-related: Ryanair. • Non-Investment Banking Compensation: J.P. Morgan has received compensation in the past 12 months for products or services other than investment banking from Ryanair. Company-Specific Disclosures: Important disclosures, including price charts, are available for compendium sports and all J.P. Morgan— covered companies by visiting haps:/rjpmm.com/researchidisclosures calling 1-800-477-0406, or e-mailing anearch.disclosure.inquiries0jpmorgan.com with your request. J.P. Morgan's Strategy, Technical, and Quantitative Research teams may screen companies not covered by J.P. Morgan. For important disclosures for these companies, please call 1-800477-0406 or e-mail research.disclmure.inquiries(Wipmorgan.com. Ryanair IRYA.I. RYA ID1Price Chart 13 12 - 11 Friel OW Date Rating Share Price Price Target IC) (C) 10 I NCA OW 03-Mar-05 OW 01-Mar-10 OW 4.22 3.50 7.00 9 8 I chvINI NO OWO.S OW Nat 21-Jun-10 N 28-Sep-11 N 3.66 3.28 3.60 Pricarr) 09-Nov-11 N 3.60 3.80 5 01-Feb-12 N 4.24 4.00 4 05-Jun-12 UW 3.93 4.25 05-Nov-12 UW 4.89 4.75 2 17-Jul-13 OW 7.07 8.50 04-Sep-13 OW 6.00 8.00 25-Nov-13 OW 6.01 7.00 0 2744ay-14 OW 7.22 8.15 Sap Mar Sep Mar Sep Mar 06 08 09 11 12 14 06-Oct-14 N 7.53 8.50 Source:ark:amber° and J.P. Morgan. 44104001.1 adIuSt00 Ice Mak UpInt and 6vId4006. area In coveraQe Mai 01.2010 • Jun21.2010. The chart(s) show J.P. Morgan's continuing coverage of the stocks; the current analysts may or may not have covered it over the entire period. J.P. Morgan ratings or designations: OW Overweight, Na, Neutral, UW Underweight, NR •• Not Rated Explanation of Equity Research Ratings, Designations and Analyst(s) Coverage Universe: J.P. Morgan uses the following rating system: Overweight (Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will outperform the average total return of the stocks in the analyst's (or the analyst's team's) coverage universe.] Neutral (Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will perform in line with the average total return of the stocks in the analyst's (or the analyst's team's) coverage universe.] Underweight (Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will underperfonn the average total return of the stocks in the analyst's (or the analyst's team's) coverage universe.] Not Rated (NR): J.P. Morgan has removed the rating and, if 2 This document is being provided for the exclusive use of JOCELYN CHOKKATTU at JP MORGAN CHASE & clients of J.P. Morgan. EFTA01103702  North America Corporate Research Jamie Baker 03 November 2014 J.P.Morgan applicable, the price target, for this stock because of either a lack of a sufficient fundamental basis or for legal, regulatory or policy reasons. The previous rating and, if applicable, the price target, no longer should be relied upon. An NR designation is not a recommendation or a rating. In our Asia (ex-Australia) and U.K. small- and mid-cap equity research, each stock's expected total return is compared to the expected total return of a benchmark country market index, not to those analysts' coverage universe. If it does not appear in the Important Disclosures section of this report, the certifying analyst's coverage universe can be found on J.P. Morgan's research website, www.jpmorganmarkets.com. Coverage Universe: Baker, Jamie: AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER), Air France-KLM (AIRF.PA), Air Lease Corp. (AL), Aircastle Limited (AYR), Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK), American Airlines (AAL), Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL), FLY Leasing Ltd. (FLY), IAG (IAG.MC), JetBlue Airways Corp. (JBLU), Lufthansa (LFIAG.DE), Ryanair (RYA.I), Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV), United Continental Holdings, Inc. (UAL), easyJet (EZJ.L) J.P. Morgan Equity Research Ratings Distribution, as of September 30, 2014 Overnight Neutral Underweight (buy) (hold) (sell) J.P. Morgan Global Equity Research Coverage 46% 42% 12% IB clients° 57% 49% 34% JPMS Equity Research Coverage 46% 48% 7% IB clients' 76% 67% 51% •Percentage of investment banking clients in each rating category. For purposes only of FINRANYSE ratings distribution rules, our Overweight rating falls into a buy rating category: our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category; and our Underweight rating falls into a sell rating category. Please note that stocks with an NR designation arc not included in the table above. Equity Valuation and Risks: For valuation methodology and risks associated with covered companies or price targets for covered companies, please see the most recent company-specific research nrnort at Intp://vAvw.jpinorganmarkets.com contact the primary analyst or your J.P. Morgan representative, or email research.disclosure.inauiriesffeinmorgan.com. Company-Specific Disclosures: Important disclosures, including price charts, are available for compendium reports and all J.P. Morgan— covered companies by visiting httpsi/ipmm.com/researclt/disclosures calling 1-800477-0406, or e-mailing nNearch.disclosure.inouiriesat inmorgan.coto with your request. J.P. Morgan's Strategy, Technical, and Quantitative Research teams may screen companies not covered by J.P. Morgan. For important disclosures for these companies, please call 1-800477-0406 or e-mail mearch.disclosure.inouiriesatinmorean.com. Explanation of Credit Research Ratings: Ratings System: J.P. Morgan uses the following issuer portfolio weightings: Overweight (over the next three months, the recommended risk position is expected to outperform the relevant index, sector, or benchmark), Neutral (over the next three months, the recommended risk position is expected to perform in line with the relevant index, sector, or benchmark), and Underweight (over the next three months, the recommended risk position is expected to underperfonn the relevant index, sector, or benchmark). J.P. Morgan Emerging Markets Sovereign Research uses Marketweight, which is equivalent to Neutral. NR is Not Rated. In this case, J.P. Morgan has removed the rating for this security because of either a lack of a sufficient fundamental basis or for legal, regulatory or policy reasons. The previous rating no longer should be relied upon. An NR designation is not a recommendation or a rating. NC is Not Covered. An NC designation is not a rating or a recommendation. Analysts can rate the issuer, the individual bonds of the issuer, or both. An issuer recommendation applies to all of the bonds at the same level of the issuer's capital structure, unless we specify a different recommendation for the individual security. For CDS, we use the following rating system: Long Risk (over the next three months, the credit return on the recommended position is expected to exceed the relevant index, sector or benchmark), Neutral (over the next three months, the credit return on the recommended position is expected to match the relevant index, sector or benchmark), and Short Risk (over the next three months, the credit return on the recommended position is expected to undetperfonn the relevant index, sector or benchmark). Valuation & Methodology: In J.P. Morgan's credit research, we assign a rating to each issuer (Overweight, Underweight or Neutral) based on our credit view of the issuer and the relative value of its securities, taking into account the ratings assigned to the issuer by credit rating agencies and the market prices for the issuer's securities. Our credit view of an issuer is based upon our opinion as to whether the issuer will be able service its debt obligations when they become due and payable. We assess this by analyzing, among other things, the issuer's credit position using standard credit ratios such as cash flow to debt and fixed charge coverage (including and excluding capital investment). We also analyze the issuer's ability to generate cash flow by reviewing standard operational measures for comparable companies in the sector, such as revenue and earnings growth rates, margins, and the composition of the issuer's balance sheet relative to the operational leverage in its business. 3 This document is being provided for the exclusive use of JOCELYN CHOKKATTU at JP MORGAN CHASE & clients of J.P. Morgan. EFTA01103703  Jame Baker North America Corporate Research 03 November 2014 J.P.Morgan J.P. Morgan Credit Research Ratings Distribution, as of September 30, 2014 Overweight Neutral Underweight Global Credit Research Universe 26% 58% 17% IB clients° 72% 64% 56% Note: The Credit Research Rating Distribution is at the issuer level. Please note that issuers with an NR or an NC designation arc no; included in the table above. *Percentage of investment banking clients in each rating category. 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EFTA01103706  J.P.Morgan Global Corporate Research 30 April 2015 Neutral IAG lAG.MC, IAG SM Price: E7.76 60 Second Update - ALERT 29 April 2015 IAG beat relatively low expectations this morning, though by a wider Airlines & Aircraft Leasing/Equity margin than peer, AF (which is down pre-market on the results). The press Jamie Baker AC conference call seemed to have focused on fuel, capacity and Aer Lingus, but we look for the analyst call at 9am BST for more details on guidance. Bloomberg JPMA BAKER COO> • IAG QI results beat. IAG's E25m of operating profits beat our lower J.P. Morgan Secunbes LLC end estimate of -E25m and consensus at -em. Higher than expected Nishant Mani revenues for all segments drove a top line beat, including 8.1 points of positive currency impacts. Meanwhile expenses, which saw improved J.P. Morgan Secunbes LLC employee unit costs and productivity in the face of lower average Naa•Sakle Akuete number of employees and lower fuel costs, rose by a lower proportion relative to our forecasts. J.P. Morgan Secunbes LLC • IAG Guidance. Though the rate of improvement in Q2 will be slower European Airlines Credit than Q1 (due in part to FX related fuel increases), expect full year Danielle Ward, CFA AC operating profit over E2.2bn (slightly below consensus at --€2.3bn). Management maintains that while Aer Lingus talks are ongoing, they are not a distraction for the group, which instead touched on its Iberia J.P. Morgan Securities plc transformation and best-in-group margins at Vueling. Note that IAG has not joined the chorus of Gulf carrier opposition, and at least for now, fuel remains the bright spot in a region hard hit by revenues pressured by Middle East expansion. Walsh reiterates an emphasis on long term fleet/capacity plans (especially in light of potential Q2 fuel increases), guiding to a 5.5% increase in 2015 ASKS. • Credit Review: IAG further improved its adjusted net leverage position to I.7x as of 31-Mar, from 1.9x at 31-Dec-14. BA's cash position was €4.0bn (of the group's total; cash of €6.0bn). We are Neutral British Airways CDS (5y mid I 20bp, close 29-Apr) and expect CDS spreads to continue to reflect uncertainty over future issuance plans from British Airways PLC after the maturity of the 8.75% Aug-2016 notes. We note that British Airways' rating was upgrade by Moody's earlier this month to Ba2/Stable (from Ba3), reflecting the group's improved operating performance. Moody's commented that it continues to rate BA on a standalone basis but takes into account the potential for more debt at the IAG holding level owing to the offer to acquire Aer Lingus, which Moody's considers could reduce debt capacity at British Airways. • Conference Call Details: 9am BST +44 (0) 20 3427 1909; ID: 3615768 I See page 2 for analyst certification and important disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. www.jpmorganmarkets.com s being provided for the exclusive use of JOCELYN CHOKKATTU at JP MORGAN CHASE & clients of J.P. Morgan. EFTA01103707  Jame Baker Global Corporate Research 30 April 2015 J.P.Morgan Analyst Certification: The research analyst(s) denoted by an "AC' on the cover of this report certifies (or, where multiple research analysts are primarily responsible for this report, the research analyst denoted by an "AC" on the cover or within the document individually certifies, with respect to each security or issuer that the research analyst covers in this research) that: (I) all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and (2) no part of any of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the research analyst(s) in this report. For all Korea-based research analysts listed on the front cover, they also certify, as per KOFIA requirements, that their analysis was made in good faith and that the views reflect their own opinion, without undue influence or intervention. Important Disclosures • Market Maker/ Liquidity Provider: J.P. Morgan Securities plc and/or an affiliate is a market maker and/or liquidity provider in IAG, British Airways. • Client: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following company(ies) as clients: IAG. • Client/Non-Investment Banking, Securities-Related: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following company(ies) as clients, and the services provided were non-investment-banking, securities-related: IAG. • Investment Banking (next 3 months): J.P. Morgan expects to receive, or intends to seek, compensation for investment banking services in the next three months from IAG. • Non-Investment Banking Compensation: J.P. Morgan has received compensation in the past 12 months for products or services other than investment banking from IAG. • Other Significant Financial Interests: J.P. Morgan owns a position of 1 million USD or more in the debt securities of British Airways. Company-Specific Disclosures: Important disclosures, including price charts and credit opinion history tables, are available for compendium reports and all I.P. Morgan—covered companies by visiting hups://jpitun.contiresearch/disclosures, calling 1-800-477-0406, or e-mailing nNearch.disclosure.inquiriesOremorgan.com with your request. J.P. Morgan's Strategy, Technical, and Quantitative Research teams may screen companies not covered by J.P. Morgan. For important disclosures for these companies, please call 1-800-477- 0406 or e-mail research.disclosure.inquiries(tmorgan.com. IAG RAG.MC, IAG BM Price Chart is - OW (2.3 N42 37 Date Rating Share Price Price Target 14) 28-Sep-11 OW 1.77 130 Ow 42.2 FIC22 12 10-Nov-11 OW 1.67 120 09-Feb-12 OW 2.15 130 Price(0 OW 0.3 NCI 3 OW43.1 Ow as OW 0.35 OW as N 0.5 14448y-12 N 2.00 130 10-Aug-12 N 1.90 120 13-Nov-12 N 2.11 137 24-Jen-13 OW 2.59 110 17-Jul-13 OW 3.18 150 25-Nov-13 OW 4.48 535 06-Oct-14 OW 4.66 5.50 0 I I I I A g 06-Apr-15 N 8.16 8.50 May Feb Nov Aug 11 12 13 13 Soucca. Sloomearg and J.P. Madan; pea data adjusted to slotlt sp:Its and dividends. Initiated COVOri a Sep 28.2011. The chart(s) show J.P. Morgan's continuing coverage of the stocks; the current analysts may or may not have covered it over the entire period. J.P. Morgan ratings or designations: OW - Overweight, N- Neutral, UW in Underweight, NR in Not Rated Explanation of Equity Research Ratings, Designations and Analyst(s) Coverage Universe: J.P. Morgan uses the following rating system: Overweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will outperform the average total return of the stocks in the analyst's (or the analyst's team's) coverage universe.) Neutral [Over the next six to twelve 2 This docum