EFTA01196183.pdf

From: Nay Gupta < To: jeevacationggmail.com Cc: Joseph Cothron Tazia Smith , Paul Morris Vinit Sahni Subject: Jeffrey - latest prices with suggested sizes - Nay [C] Date: Tue, 15 Apr 2014 11:46:14 +0000 Inline-Images: unnamed; unnamed(]); unnamed(2); unnamed(3); unnamed(4); unnamed(5); unnamed(6) Classification: Confidential Jeffrey, Updated prices and proposed sizes. 1. Buy 10y BTP (March2024). 10y yield is 5bp lower today. I still like eur2mm here 3.125% YTM and suggest work a soft order to add eur1.5mm at 3.25%, eur1.5mm 3.35%. 2. EURUSD spot FX is 1.3802 from 1.3827 yesterday. Suggest buying 2week vanilla 1.40c at 5-6c in EUR 50mm notional (cost EUR25-30k) 3. position for a stronger dollar by buying 1y 5% OTM SPOT EURUSD binary puts at 21% of payout. suggest do half (eur500k payout costing 0.21'1500k) now, and the other half when spot 139-140 4. nationwide coco currently 6.42% offered. I suggest scaling in £2mm on an order at 6.5% and £2mm on order at 6/5% thanks Nav From: To: eevacation mail.com. Cc: Date: 14104/2014 18:17 Subject: Jeffrey - 4 trades I like - Nay [CI Classification: Confidential Hi Jeffrey, There hasn't been much I've really liked recently. Here are four trades - 3 I like right now and 1 for now or soon. 1) BUY 10y BTPS @ 3.16% - This is a 3-6mth 'buy the rumour sell the fact' tactical trade to position for ECB QE (now) The ECB is preparing both itself and markets for QE - Its senior board members have stepped up public comments over the past 48hrs. This is the clearest sign so far QE could happen and why I am writing to you now. Ideally ECB wants to buy ABS from small to medium sized European companies but the outstanding available is relatively small so it will likely buy Eurozone Government Bonds. The spread between Italian BTPs and German Bunds has tightened EFTA01196183 significantly past 18months but old metrics of value make no sense in Europe because they rely on history when there was no QE. While It's hard to get excited about 10y BTPs yielding 3.16% (164bp over 10Y German Bunds) I'd still have 5-10mm 10y BTPs in my portfolio both for the duration and spread compression potential. I prefer 10y over 5y because the recent nearly parallel spread compression has left 5s10s steep relative to 0-5s.. 3 reasons i like this trade: i) macro investors view ECB QE as a second bite at the cherry. Everyone I talk to wants European risk assets having seen QE in the US. ii) ECB QE is probably still 3-6mths away which will keep credit bid. This will be a buy the rumour sell the fact trade iii) Credit has been bulletproof during the recent risk selloff because a) ECB QE expectations, b) G3 rate hikes are being pushed into the future while cash has nowhere else to go. This price action is telling - as and when equities recover i think credit continues to tighten Yields of 10Y Italy, 1iily Germany and the Yield Spread SPREAD Last 164.76 6.000 Mean 234.2757 Off Avg -69.4957 Median 214.7206 1 StDev 122.7606 4.000 3.175 StDev from mean -0.5661 Low: 3.166 Percentile 39.0966 %NA,. (AA High 11/09/11 552.5662 NA,e0y4_ . 65 1.527 Low 08/10/09 66.9182 400 0.1.01.1% I 164.73 9182 6- 50 100 150 200 250 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 GBTPGR10 Index (Italy Generic Govt 10Y Yield) Copyright 2014 Bloomberg Finance LP. 14-Apr-2014 16:21:57 2) Tactically position for higher EURUSD - 2 week view (now) BUY EUR5Omm 2week expiry 1.40 strike European Style EURUSD Calls @ 6bp (EUR30,000) This is a low cost contrarian short term tactical call. Most investors myself included are bullish USD in the medium term (see trade 3) but in the very short term I see EURUSD higher because: i) Despite ECB preparing the markets for QE, the price action of EURUSD (broadly unchanged) has been quite bullish compared to what one would expect ii) Speculators don't appear long EURUSD to us. Majority are short or flat. iii) implied volatility is 5.25% (offer for 2week options) which is very very low historically. So this is a penny option, highly convex, pain trade bet against other speculators betting on QE If my view is wrong 6bp is lost. If i'm right I'd plan to exit in a week making 4-6x Scenario Analysis - Premium in bp of EUR notional EFTA01196184  EURUSD call option prices Spot 1.382 Spot At exp 1w 2w 1.42 141 142 145 1.41 71 76 84 1.4 0 24 37 1.39 0 4 11 1.382 0 1 4 < 4bp is mid mkt, offer is 6bp 3) Position for a Stronger Dollar - lyear view (now or soon) Buy ly expiry European style digital binary option on EURUSD struck 5% below spot @ 21% of payout (which i think is too cheap) Current strike (spot - 5%) would be 1.3120 At expiry if EURUSD has fallen by more than 5% from current levels the option payout is EUR1mm. Upfront premium is EUR210k. The option is liquid and can be unwound at any time. i) Yellen has done a poor job of communicating the Fed's thinking but its increasingly clear the Fed will brake later than usual ii) Betting on higher US interest rates in the rates market isn't cost effective because the forward curve is already pricing in higher rates iii) The Dollar hasn't appreciated yet because short rates in the US haven't risen meaningfully iv) THE KEY POINT - FX volatility is very low in currency pairs like EURUSD where central bank policy on each side is increasingly diverging. The low vol makes this bet inexpensive to put on. v) Because FX vol is so low betting now or soon with a one year time horizon costs very little. id rather be early than late here vi) i prefer 1y expiry because this trade could take 6-12mths to play out EURUSD VOL: Low - but then again most most vols are What I like about EURUSD is that central bank policy on each side is diverging 20.0000 • Last Price 7.2650 T High on 12/31/0819.5225 - 18.0000 -0- Average 10.9287 1 Low. on.05131/07 5.8000. 16.0000 14.0000 12.0000 10.0000 8.0000 23 6.0000 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 EURUSDV1Y Curncy (EUR-USD OPT VOL 1Y) 163eitily OUAN1997-14APR2014 Copyrigtell 2014 Bkomberg Finance . 14-Apr-201416:49:49 This Table shows mid-market premiums (in % of notional) as spot and time change. EFTA01196185 EURUSD binary option prices Spot: 1.382 Spot ± X% Abs Spot At exp lm 2m 3m 6m 9m 12m 5.0 1.451 0 0 0 1 3 6 8 2.5 1.416 0 0 1 2 6 10 12 0.0 1.382 0 1 3 6 12 16 19.5 -2.5 1.347 0 7 13 18 25 28 30 -5.0 1.313 100 48 48 47 46 45 45 -7.5 1.278 100 95 88 82 71 66 62 10.0 1.244 100 100 99 96 88 82 77 19.5 is mid (offer is 21) 4) Scale into £4mm Nationwide (UK Building Society) 6.875% perpetual which yields 6.4% in GBP and is likely to be called in 5years European Bank AT1 FlyBrid Bonds (aka CoCo's) have rallied significantly. We were unable to get the BBVA issue at the right levels. A very similar bond which has rallied 30bp less than the BBVA is the Nationwide (UK Building Society) 6.875% perpetual which currently yields 6.4% and is likely to be called in 5years time. It has a tierl capital trigger of 7% and current tierl capital ratio is 13% which is fair margin. The Nationwide one i'm suggesting today is rated Fitch/S&P BB+, its parent is Fitch/S&P rated single-A The BBVA bond we tried to buy earlier is rated Fitch BB-, its parent is S&P rated BBB- I suggest scaling £2mm at 6.5% and £2mm at 6.75%. Transaction cost is 6bp from mid. Yield to call of Nationwide 6.875% perpetual ISIN XS1043181269 7.000 6.900 6.800 6.700 6.600 6.484 6.400 Mar 7 Mar 14 Mar 21 Mar 31 Apr 8 2014 EK100011 Corp (NATIONWIDE BLDG SOCIETY) Copyright?. 2014 Bloomberg Finance 14-Apr-2014 17:08:59 Tazia for any execution, Q&A to me. Best, EFTA01196186 Nav Nav Gupta Managing Director Deutsche Bank AG. Filiale London Deutsche Asset 8 Wealth Management 105/108 Old Broad St Pinner& Hall). EC2N 1EN London. United Kingdom Tel. Email My proposed ideas are being delivered to you by the DeAWM Key Client Partners ('KCP") London desk for discussion purposes only, and do not create any legally bindtig obligation on the part of Deutsche Bank AG and / or its affiliates ("DB"). 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