Re: NH Primary Toplines and Memo

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P17 V16 V11 P20 D6

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Thanks, looking forward to catch up, this is helpful. Sent from my iPhone On Jun 27, 2015, at 8:39 AM, Oren Shur <[email protected]> wrote: Team – Attached are the toplines from the NH primary survey and a cover letter from Brodnitz (also pasted below). We’re working with your assistants to schedule a call to review these results, likely on Tuesday morning. Thanks. To: Hillary Clinton for President Consultant Team From: Pete Brodnitz Date: June 27, 2015 Re: Topline Results *Horse-race* · The last survey was conducted in February. Now that the race has become more engaged, the ballot in New Hamphsire has tightened considerably, but Secretary Clinton maintains a double digit lead over Sanders (48% support for Secretary Clinton, 34% for Bernie Sanders, 2% for Martin O’Malley, 1% for Lincoln Chafee, 2% “other” and 13% undecided). *Ballot Tracking* *Feb 2015* *June 2015* *Δ* *Difference (HRC-Sanders)* *+61* *+14* *-47* Hillary Clinton 73 48 *-25* Bernie Sanders 12 34 *+22* Martin O’Malley 2 2 *n/c* Lincoln Chafee 1 Jim Webb 3 Other 2 2 *n/c* Don’t Know 9 13 *+4* **Note: In February Jim Webb was asked. In June, Lincoln Chafee was asked* *.* · When undecided voters are pushed to make a choice, Clinton’s lead breaks the 50% threshold while Sanders’ vote share sees little movement (53% Clinton and 36% Sanders). · Sanders has raised his name identification and favorables considerably since we last polled. His name ID has increased from 52% to 77% and his favorability increased from 44% to 70%. Secretary Clinton’s overal favorabilitiy is 85% with 12% unfavorable. Currently Sanders’ very favorable is 46% while that for Secretary Clinton’s is 39%. · The Sanders vote does not appear to be an anti-Clinton vote. Clinton is the second choice of most Sanders voters. Almost seven in ten (66%) of Sanders voters say Secretary Clinton is their second choice preference. · As of now, only about three in ten voters are familiar enough to have an opinion of Martin O’Malley or Lincoln Chafee, respectively. · As shown in the ballot progression below, after voters hear a positive profile of both Sanders and O’Malley, Sanders gains 3% and O’Malley gains 4% support. Once voters subsequently heard a positive profile of Secretary Clinton the ballot reverts to close to initial ballot support. Providing voters negative information about both Clinton and Sanders did not significantly change ballot support. In fact, the final ballot (which comes after negative information about both Clinton and Sanders) is almost identical to the initial ballot – a 13% HRC advantage, compared with an initial 14% advantage. *Ballot Progression* I know it’s a long way off, but if the *Democratic primary* for *President* were held today, would you vote for…? Ranked by PrimB *Initial Ballot (PrimB)* *Ballot After Sanders/O’Malley Profile (Q28)* *Ballot After* *HRC Profiles (Q32)* *Ballot After HRC Negatives (Q45)* *Ballot After Sanders Negatives (Q54)* *All* *Heard Values* *Heard Policy* *Difference (HRC-Sanders)* *+14* *+7* *+12* *+11* *+15* *+8* *+13* Hillary Clinton 48 44 48 48 50 46 48 Bernie Sanders 34 37 36 37 35 38 35 Martin O’Malley 2 7 5 5 6 6 6 Lincoln Chafee 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 Other 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Don’t know 13 9 8 8 7 8 8 *The Candidates* · When asked what words they associate with Clinton, the responses were generally positive and describe Clinton as strong, intelligent and capable. They described Sanders as honest/trustworthy, a liberal/progressive and other generally positive characteristics. · However, when asked about recent coverage of Clinton, we see that the negative coverage has cut through. When asked what they’ve recently heard, most voters report hearing about the email scandal (32%), contributions to the Clinton Foundation (14%) or stories surronding Benghazi (10%). · When presented with a series of attributes and asked how well it applies to Clinton, voters were most likely to ascribe strength, ability to make tough choices and fights for people like you to Clinton. Clinton performed the worst on holding Wall Street accountable, being in touch with the lives of ordinary Americans and being genuine. · Half of all likely voters (51%) describe Clinton as moderate whereas close to half (46%) describe Sanders as very liberal. Notably, most primary voters describe themslves as liberal (50%) and only 38% describe themselves as moderate. *Message/Policy* · While a majority of likely voters (50%) do not hold a position on TPP, among those who do the intensity of opposition is higher than the intensity of support (10% strongly support vs. 19% strongly oppose). · Meanwhile, a majority of voters prefer Clinton’s approach to the banking industry of holding top executives accountable compared to Sanders’ approach of breaking up the banks (regardless of whether we reference the recovering economy or not). It should be noted that neither candidate’s name was associated with the position tested and that Clinton’s weakest attribute is her abiilty to hold Wall Street accountable. · After voters hear a positive profile on both Sanders and O’Malley, Clinton’s lead dops to a seven point margin (44% Clinton, 37% Sanders, 7% O’Malley, 1% Chafee, 2% other and 9% don’t know). However, once voters hear a positive profile on Clinton she re-gains her double-digit lead (+12 points). o On a topline basis the two paragraphs about Hillary Clinton tested, one focusing on values and the other policy, are comparable. Further analysis will be needed to see if they perform differently among sub-groups. · Secretary Clinton’s top vulnerability tested in this poll is the attack that claims as Secretary of State she signed off on a deal that gave the Russian government control over twenty percent of America's uranium production, after investors in the deal donated over one hundred and forty million dollars to the Clinton Foundation. Half of all likely voters (53%) are less likely to support Clinton after hearing that statement and 17% are much less likely to support her after that statement. · After voters heard a battery of negatives on Secretary Clinton, their top concern was that she does not seem honest (16%). · Sanders’ chief vulnerability tested is his record on guns. Almost a quarter of all voters (23%) are much less likely and more than six in ten (63%) are less likely to support Sanders after hearing that the NRA helped Sanders win a seat in Congress, that he opposed the Brady Gun Bill, supports allowing guns on passenger trains and supported a bill designed to protect gun manufacturers from lawsuits filed by families of victims of gun crimes like the Sandy Hook parents. As we heard in the recent focus groups, the issue of gun control is particularly salient given the recent shootings in Charleston, South Carolina. <June 2015 HRC NH Primary Survey Toplines vFIN.pdf> <NH June Topline Memo.docx>