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June 2017 0 Freedom I House Breaking Down Democracy: Goals, Strategies, and Methods of Modern Authoritarians by Arch Pudthngtun EFTA00804723 CONTENTS Executive Summary Introduction: Modern Authoritarians: Origins, Anatomy, Outlook Chapters 1. Validating Autocracy through the Ballot 10 2. Propaganda at Home and Abroad 15 3. The Enemy Within: Civil Society at Bay 22 4. The Ministry of Truth in Peace and War 29 5. The Rise of 'Illiberal Democracy 35 6. Flacks and Friends 41 7. Bullying the Neighbors: Frozen Conflicts, the Near Abroad. and Other Innovations 47 8. Back to the Future 52 Conclusion:Authoritarianism Comes Calling 57 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This report emerged from a presentation on the state of global freedom conducted by the author and David J. Kramer, former president of Freedom House. The major source of data and analysis is Freedom in the World, the report on political rights and civil liberties published annually by Freedom House. The author wishes to thank the Freedom House analysis staff and the many scholars who have participated in Freedom House assessments of global democracy. The author also extends special thanks to Elen Aghekyan, Tyler Roylance, Alexandra Cain. Danielle Recanati, Amy Slipowitz, Alan Williams. Christopher Walker, Bret Nelson. Michael Johnson, Rebeka Foley. Zselyke Csaky. Sarah Repucci, Vanessa Tucker. Robert Ruby, and Daniel Calingaert. THE AUTHOR Arch Puddington is Distinguished Scholar for Democracy Studies at Freedom House and a co-editor of Freedom in the World. ON THE COVER Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Beijing. 2016. Lintao Zhang/Getty Images EFTA00804724  Freedom House Executive Summary Breaking Down Democracy: Goals, Strategies, and Methods of Modern Authoritarians by Arch Puddington The 21st century has been marked by a resurgence of authoritarian rule that has proved resilient despite economic fragility and occasional popular resistance. Modern authoritarianism has succeeded, where previous totalitarian systems failed, due to refined and nuanced strategies of repression, the exploitation of open societies, and the spread of illiberal policies in democratic countries themselves. The leaders of today's authoritarian systems devote full- time attention to the challenge of crippling the opposition without annihilating it, and flouting the rule of law while maintaining a plausible veneer of order, legitimacy, and prosperity. Central to the modem authoritarian strategy is the independent existence (as long as it does not pursue capture of institutions that undergird political plural- political change), citizens can travel around the coun- ism. The goal is to dominate not only the executive try or abroad with only occasional interference, and and legislative branches, but also the media, the private enterprise can flourish (albeit with rampant judiciary, civil society, the commanding heights of the corruption and cronyism). economy, and the security forces. With these institu- tions under the effective if not absolute control of an This study explains how modern authoritarianism de- incumbent leader, changes in government through fair fends and propagates itself, as regimes from different and honest elections become all but impossible. regions and with diverse socioeconomic foundations copy and borrow techniques of political control. Unlike Soviet-style communism, modern authoritari- Among its major findings: anism is not animated by an overarching ideology or the messianic notion of an ideal future society. Nor • Russia, under President Vladimir Putin, has do today's autocrats seek totalitarian control over played an outsized role in the development of people's everyday lives, movements, or thoughts. modern authoritarian systems. This is particu- The media are more diverse and entertaining under larly true in the areas of media control, propa- modern authoritarianism, civil society can enjoy an ganda, the smothering of civil society, and the www.freedomhouse.org 1 EFTA00804725 BREAKING DOWN DEMOCRACY: Goals, Strategies, and Methods of Modern Authoritarians MAJOR DECLINES FOR INFLUENTIAL COUNTRIES OVER THE PAST 10 YEARS 0 C C 1 -5 -10 -12 -12 -12 -16 I -17 -17 I -20 -21 1 -25 -25 -28 -30 weakening of political pluralism. Russia has also and practically all of the authoritarian states in moved aggressively against neighboring states the Middle East where democratic institutions have emerged or where democratic movements have succeeded The toxic combination of unfair elections and in ousting corrupt authoritarian leaders. crude majoritarianism is spreading from modern authoritarian regimes to illiberal leaders in what • The rewriting of history for political purposes is are still partly democratic countries. Increasing- common among modern authoritarians. Again, ly, populist politicians—once in office—claim Russia has taken the lead, with the state's asser- the right to suppress the media, civil society, tion of authority over history textbooks and the and other democratic institutions by citing process, encouraged by Putin, of reassessing support from a majority of voters. The resulting the historical role of Joseph Stalin. changes make it more difficult for the opposi- tion to compete in future elections and can pave • The hiring of political consultants and lobbyists the way for a new authoritarian regime. from democratic countries to represent the interests of autocracies is a growing phenome- An expanding cadre of politicians in democ- non. China is clearly in the vanguard, with multi- racies are eager to emulate or cooperate with ple representatives working for the state and for authoritarian rulers. European parties of the large economic entities closely tied to the state. nationalistic right and anticapitalist left have But there are also K Street representatives for expressed admiration for Putin and aligned Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Turkey, Ethiopia, their policy goals with his. Others have praised 2 EFTA00804726 Freedom House EVERY INDICATOR HAS DECLINED OVER THE PAST 10 YEARS Electoral Pluralism and Functioning of Expression and Association and Personal and Process' Participation Government* Belief Assembly' Rule of Law Individual Rights 0.0 -0.1- I -0.5 - -0.6 - -0.7— 'Denotes indicators scored on a 12-point scale. All others are scored on a 16-point scale. illiberal governments in countries like Hungary Modern authoritarians are working to revalidate for their rejection of international democratic the concept of the leader-for-life. One of the standards in favor of perceived national inter- seeming gains of the postcommunist era was ests. Even when there is no direct collaboration, the understanding that some form of term limits such behavior benefits authoritarian powers by should be imposed to prevent incumbents from breaking down the unity and solidarity of the consolidating power into a dictatorship. In re- democratic world. cent years, however, a number of countries have adjusted their constitutions to ease, eliminate, There has been a rise in authoritarian inter- or circumvent executive term limits. The result nationalism. Authoritarian powers form loose has been a resurgence of potential leaders-for- but effective alliances to block criticism at the life from Latin America to Eurasia. United Nations and regional organizations like the Organization for Security and Co-operation While more subtle and calibrated methods of re- in Europe and the Organization of American pression are the defining feature of modern au- States, and to defend embattled allies like Syria's thoritarianism, the past few years have featured 8ashar al-Assad. There is also growing replica- a reemergence of older tactics that undermine tion of what might be called authoritarian best the illusions of pluralism and openness as well practices, vividly on display in the new Chinese as integration with the global economy. Thus law on nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) Moscow has pursued its military intervention in and efforts by Russia and others to learn from Ukraine despite economic sanctions and over- China's experience in internet censorship. seen the assassination of opposition figures; www.freedomhouse.org 3 EFTA00804727 BREAKING DOWN DEMOCRACY: Goals, Strategies, and Methods of Modern Authoritarians Beijing has revived the practice of coerced pub- both taken advantage of democracies commitment to lic "confessions" and escalated its surveillance freedom of expression and delivered infusions of pro- of the Tibetan and Uighur minorities to totalitar- paganda and disinformation. Moscow has effectively ian levels; and Azerbaijan has made the Aliyev prevented foreign broadcasting stations from reach- family's monopoly on political power painfully ing Russian audiences even as it steadily expands the obvious with the appointment of the president's reach of its own mouthpieces, the television channel wife as "first vice president." RT and the news service Sputnik. China blocks the websites of mainstream foreign media while en- Modern authoritarian systems are employing couraging its corporations to purchase influence in these blunter methods in a context of increased popular culture abroad through control of Hollywood economic fragility. Venezuela is already in the studios. Similar combinations of obstruction at home process of political and economic disintegra- and interference abroad can be seen in sectors in- tion. Other states that rely on energy exports cluding civil society, academia, and party politics. have also experienced setbacks due to low oil and gas prices, and China faces rising debt and The report draws on examples from a broad group slower growth after years of misallocated invest- of authoritarian states and illiberal democracies, but ment and other structural problems. But these the focus remains on the two leading authoritarian regimes also face less international pressure to powers, China and Russia. Much of the report, in observe democratic norms, raising their chanc- fact, deals with Russia, since that country, more than es of either surviving the current crises or—if any other, has incubated and refined the ideas and they break down—giving way to something even institutions at the foundation of 21st-century author- worse. itarianism. In subsequent sections, this report will examine the Finally, a basic assumption behind the report is that methods employed by authoritarian powers to neu- modem authoritarianism will be a lasting feature of tralize precisely those institutions that were thought geopolitics. Since 2012, both Vladimir Putin and Xi to be the most potent weapons against a revitalized Jinping have doubled down on existing efforts to authoritarianism. The success of the Russian and stamp out internal dissent, and both have grown more Chinese regimes in bringing to heel and even har- aggressive on the world stage. All despotic regimes nessing the forces produced by globalization—digital have inherent weaknesses that leave them vulnerable media, civil society, free markets—may be their most to sudden shocks and individually prone to collapse. impressive and troubling achievement However, the past quarter-century has shown that dictatorship in general will not disappear on its own. Modem authoritarianism is particularly insidious in its Authoritarian systems will seek not just to survive, but exploitation of open societies. Russia and China have to weaken and defeat democracy around the world. 4 EFTA00804728 Freedom House Introduction Modern Authoritarianism: Origins, Anatomy, Outlook As the world's democracies confront a dangerous However, a parallel pattern of institutional erosion has internal challenge from populist and nationalist affected some more democratic states, pushing them political forces, it is imperative that they recognize the into the category of "illiberal democracies." In these so- simultaneous external threat presented by modern cieties, elections are regularly conducted, sometimes authoritarian regimes. These 21' century authori- under conditions that are reasonably fair. But the state, tarians developed an arsenal of new tactics to use usually under the control of a strong party or leader, against their domestic opponents, and gone on the applies much of its energy to the systematic weaken- offensive in an effort to subvert and replace the liberal ing of political pluralism and the creation of a skewed international order. electoral playing field. Opposition parties are often impotent, freedom of the press is circumscribed, and But modern authoritarian systems are not simply the judiciary tends to be dominated by the ruling party. adversaries of free societies. They also represent an Countries that fit this description include Hungary, alternative model—a grim future for beleaguered Bolivia, Ecuador, and, if recent trends continue, Poland. democracies that have already fallen under the sway of illiberal leaders and have suffered an erosion of There are many reasons for the global decline in dem- freedom. ocratic indicators, but the statistical evidence from Freedom in the World suggests that modern author- Democracy under siege itarian regimes have found a way to survive without Global democracy is currently facing the repercus- resorting to democratic reforms, and that a number sions of what has been called the decade of decline." of democracies—as part of the general loss of liberal The phrase describes a 10-year-plus period, from 2006 consensus—are engaging in their own antidemocratic to 2016, during which the state of freedom experi- experiments. enced more reversals than gains as measured by Free- dom in the World, the annual report on political rights Modem authoritarianism and civil liberties published by Freedom House.' The traditional authoritarian state sought monopolis- tic control over political life, a one-party system orga- According to Freedom in the World, the crucial nized around a strongman or military junta, and direct indicators of democracy experienced setbacks in rule by the executive, sometimes through martial law, each of the 10 years in question. In all, 105 countries with little or no role for the parliament suffered net declines, while 61 showed some mea- sure of improvement. The decade marked the longest Traditional dictatorships and totalitarian regimes were democratic slump of its kind in more than 40 years of often defined by closed, command, or autarkic econo- Freedom House analysis.' mies, a state media monopoly with formal censorship, and "civil society" organizations that were structured The decade of decline has been principally character- as appendages of the ruling party or state. Especially ized by a steady erosion of political institutions in es- in military dictatorships, the use of force—including tablished authoritarian countries, or in countries that military tribunals, curfews, arbitrary arrests, political were clearly headed in that direction. In other words, detentions, and summary executions—was pervasive. repressive countries became even more repressive— Often facing international isolation, traditional dictator- the bad became even worse.' ships and totalitarian regimes forged alliances based on www.freedomhouse.org S EFTA00804729 BREAKING DOWN DEMOCRACY: Goals, Strategies, and Methods of Modern Authoritarians common ideologies, whether faith in Marxist revolution fellow authoritarian states against pressure or ultraconservative, anticommunist reaction. for democratic reform or leadership changes, international human rights norms and mech- As the 20th century drew to a close, the weaknesses anisms, and international security or justice of both communist systems and traditional dictator- interventions ships became increasingly apparent. Front and center was the growing economic gap between countries • Knowledge-sharing with or emulation of fellow that had opted for market economies and regimes authoritarian states regarding tactics and legis- that were committed to statist economies. lation to enhance domestic control The political and economic barriers that had long shel- China and Russia tered the old dictatorships were soon swept away, and The two major modern authoritarian powers are China those that survived or recovered did so by making a and Russia. series of strategic concessions to the new global order. Until fairly recently, the conventional wisdom was that Modern authoritarianism has a different set of defin- China's one-party authoritarian system would gradual- ing features: ly relax as the middle class expanded and the country • An illusion of pluralism that masks state control became fully integrated into the global economic over key political institutions, with co-opted or and diplomatic systems. The leadership did expand otherwise defanged opposition parties allowed citizens freedom to travel, make money, and access to participate in regular elections information and entertainment that did not touch on sensitive subjects. But it has resolutely refused to give • State or oligarchic control over key elements of up control over the political sphere. the national economy, which is otherwise open to the global economy and private investment In fact, the state has become increasingly aggressive to ensure loyalty to the regime and bolster in its suppression of political dissent and information regime claims of legitimacy based on economic that might challenge the Communist Party narrative. prosperity The regime's rhetoric and policies have become more hostile to democracy and *Western'. values. Its propa- • State or oligarchic control over information on ganda asserts the superior efficiency of the one-party certain political subjects and key sectors of the system and sneers at the messiness of democracy. media, which are otherwise pluralistic, with high And the focus of its repressive apparatus has steadily production values and entertaining content; in- expanded from a relatively narrow segment of political dependent outlets survive with small audiences opposition figures to encompass a broad collection of and little influence target groups, including human rights lawyers, ethnic minorities, Christians, women's rights advocates, liber- • Suppression of nongovernmental organizations al academics, and independent journalists. (NGOs) that are focused on human rights or political reform, but state tolerance or support Russia is much smaller than China in terms of pop- for progovernment or apolitical groups that work ulation and economic might, but it has emerged as on public health, education, and other develop- a leader of modern authoritarian innovation. Under ment issues Vladimir Putin, the Russian regime pioneered the capture of the media through state enterprises and • Legalized political repression, with targets pun- oligarchic cronies, the adoption of laws designed to ished through vaguely worded laws and political- dismember civil society, the use of the judiciary as ly obedient courts an instrument of political harassment, and, perhaps most importantly of all, the development of modern • Limited, selective, and typically hidden use of propaganda and disinformation. extralegal force or violence, with a concentration on political dissidents, critical joumalists, and Russia has also been in the vanguard of a relentless officials who have fallen from favor campaign against liberal values, and has moved relentlessly to export authoritarian ideas and tech- • Opportunistic, non-ideological cooperation with niques to other societies, both in neighboring 6 EFTA00804730 Freedom House Eurasian countries and elsewhere in the world. While without affecting nonsensitive information, requires today there is nothing that resembles the Comintern tremendous financial, human, and technological re- of Soviet times, authoritarian countries have devel- sources to maintain. Other regimes have not attempt- oped an ad hoc network of cooperation that has ed anything approaching the scale of China's system, proven effective at the United Nations and in regional but some have constructed more limited versions or bodies like the Organization of American States. simply relied on inexpensive offline techniques like arrests of critical bloggers, direct pressure on the Adapting to survive owners of major online platforms, and new laws that Modern authoritarianism matured as regimes sought force internet sites to self-censor. to defend themselves against the sorts of civil society movements that triggered "color revolutions" in Alternative values Georgia, Ukraine, and elsewhere in the early 2000s. While modern authoritarians initially mobilized for On their own, formal opposition parties were relatively defensive purposes, to thwart color revolutions or easy to marginalize or co-opt, and traditional mass the liberal opposition, they have become increasingly media could be brought to heel through pressure on aggressive in challenging the democratic norms that private owners, among other techniques. But civil prevailed in the wake of the Cold War, and in setting society organizations presented a formidable chal- forth a rough set of political values as an alternative lenge in some settings, as they were able to mobilize to the liberal model. Examples of this phenomenon the public—especially students and young people— include: around nonpartisan reformist goals and use relatively open online media to spread their messages. 1. Majoritariankun: A signal idea of many author- itarians is the proposition that elections are It is now a major objective of modern authoritarian winner-take-all affairs in which the victor has an states to suppress civil society before it becomes absolute mandate, with little or no interference strong enough to challenge the incumbent political from institutional checks and balances. Putin, leadership. Yet whereas dissidents were dispatched Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and the to the gulag or explicitly exiled by the Soviets, or jailed Venezuelan chavista leadership all behave as and murdered by traditional dictatorships like Augus- if there are no valid controls on their authority, to Pinochet's Chile, today's activists are checked by the opposition has no rights, and the system NGO regulations that control registration and foreign is theirs to dismantle and remake from top to funding, laws that allow arbitrary restrictions on public bottom. Disturbingly, the leaders of some dem- protest, and trumped-up criminal charges for key ocratic societies have begun to embrace the organizers that serve to intimidate others. majoritarian idea The Hungarian prime minister, Viktor °Man, has instituted a thorough overhaul Modern authoritarianism has also devised special of the country's constitution and national leg- methods to bring the internet under political control islation with an eye toward measures that will without shutting it down entirely. While old-style dic- insulate his party from future defeat tatorships like Cuba long prevented the widespread use of the internet out of fear that online communi- 2. Sovereignty: A number of governments have cations would pose a threat to the state's monopoly invoked the doctrine of absolute sovereignty on information, modern authoritarians understood to rebuff international criticism of restrictions that a high rate of Internet penetration is essential to on the press, the smothering of civil society, participation in the global economy. However, once the persecution of the political opposition, and online media emerged as a real alternative to tradi- the repression of minority groups. They claim tional news sources and a crucial tool for civic and that the enforcement of universal human rights political mobilization, these regimes began to step up standards or judgments from transnational legal their interference. bodies represent undue interference in their domestic affairs and a violation of national pre The Chinese government has developed the world's rogatives. most sophisticated system of intemet controls. Its so- called Great Firewall, a censorship and filtering appa- 3. Dictatorship ofInt Initially articulated by Vlad- ratus designed to prevent the circulation of informa- imir Putin, this phrase has come to signify the tion that the authorities deem politically dangerous adoption of laws that are so vaguely written as to VANivireedomhoustorg 7 EFTA00804731 BREAKING DOWN DEMOCRACY: Goals, Strategies, and Methods of Modern Authoritarians give the authorities wide discretion in applying regimes with significantly different economic systems, them to regime opponents. Such measures are official creeds, and sources of political legitimacy. typically paired with a court system that uses law merely to justify political instructions from the ex- A loose-knit league of authoritarians works to protect ecutive branch, making a mockery of due process mutual interests at the United Nations and other inter- and international conceptions of the rule of law. national forums, subverting global human rights stan- dards and blocking precedent-setting actions against 4. History revised: A number of countries have un- fellow✓ despots. With the formation of the Shanghai dertaken a refashioning of history to buttress the Cooperation Organization, Russia, China, and a number legitimacy and aims of the current government of Central Asian governments have come together to Historians and journalists are forbidden to cross discuss common regime-security strategies s certain redlines set by the authorities. In China, the state has prevented the publication of full, More disturbingly, modern authoritarians collaborate accurate, or critical accounts of the Great Leap to prop up some of the world's most reprehensible Forward, the Cultural Revolution, or the Mao Ze- regimes, apparently reasoning that the toppling of dong era in general. In Russia, Joseph Stalin has one dictator thins the herd, inspires imitation, and been rehabilitated. He is now officially portrayed endangers them all. This is most visible in Syria, where as a strong if mildly flawed leader rather than as Russia, China, Iran, and Venezuela at various times the man responsible for the deaths of millions of have offered diplomatic support, loans, fuel, or direct his own people. In Turkey Erdogan has decreed military aid to the regime of Bashar al-Assad. that high school students should study the de- funct Ottoman language, challenging a nearly Dashed hopes century-old reform linked to Mustafa Kemal Democracy recorded unprecedented gains during the Ataturk, modern Turkey's founder.' 20th century's last decades. In 1975, Freedom House found that just 25 percent of the world's sovereign 5. Democracy redefined: It is a testament to the states qualified for the Free category; by 2000, the power of the democratic idea that authoritarian share of countries rated as Free had reached 45 leaders around the globe have claimed the man- percents tle of democracy for forms of government that amount to legalized repression. Even as they The numbers told an optimistic story, and a series of heap disdain on the liberal order, they have often accelerating social trends suggested that the recent insisted on the validity of their own systems improvements would hold firm and expand as the new as types of democratic rule. They even devise millennium dawned. terms to describe their special variant, such as "sovereign democracy," "revolutionary democra- There was, to begin with, a strong identification of free cy," or illiberal democracy." societies with free markets. The degree of economic freedom varied from one society to the next, and 6. Return of the leader for life: Among the changes corruption was a problem in practically all of the new invariably instituted by modern authoritarians is democracies. But there was no longer a major bloc of the de facto or de jure removal of constitution- countries that rejected capitalism, and practically ev- al limits on presidential terms. Preventing the ery country sought to deepen their participation in the concentration of power in a single leader is a global economic system, as witnessed by the number fundamental goal of democratic governance, but of governments seeking admission to the World Trade authoritarian propaganda has presented term Organization. Authorities in the United States and limits as artificial constraints, associated them elsewhere predicted that as countries came to accept with foreign origins, and claimed that they do the rules of the game set down by the WTO, they not suit every country's unique historical, cultur- would also be more amenable to accepting the norms al, or security conditions. of liberal democracy, including fair elections, freedom of expression, minority rights, and the rule of law. While these ideas may not amount to a coherent or complete ideology, they do form the basis for an A second development was the introduction of the In- impressive degree of collaboration and alliance-build- ternet and other digital media. In the wake of the col- ing that has brought together modem authoritarian lapse of the Soviet Union, communist governments in 8 EFTA00804732 Freedom House Eastern Europe, and military dictatorships elsewhere, new social forces, commentators were also express- there was an explosion of newspapers, radio and ing optimism about the universal appeal of liberal television stations, and other independent media with values. The decade after the end of the Cold War diverse editorial policies. But the internet in particular was a heyday for democratic ideas and norms. It was was seen as an irresistible force that could render increasingly expected that countries would not only censorship of any kind impossible. In 2000, President hold elections, but that their elections would meet Bill Clinton compared China's efforts to control inter- international standards and be judged -free and fair.' net content to "trying to nail Jell-O to the wall." There was also an expectation that political parties would be able to compete on a reasonably level Third, a growing number of experts began to identify playing field, that opposition leaders would not be a new instigator of democratic change in global civil harassed or arrested, and that minorities would be society. Unlike the -people's movements" of earlier able to pursue their agendas through normal political decades, in which well-known leaders mobilized mass channels and not find it necessary to wage perpetual demonstrations and often insurrectionary violence protest campaigns. with the goal of overthrowing despotic regimes, the phenomenon that was labeled civil society consisted However, there were nagging questions. It remained of organizations that were often committed to a single unclear whether most societies would have access to cause or a few causes united by a particular theme. multiple sources of political ideas, multiple interpreta- Most activists were young, with little prior involvement tions of the news, and open scholarly inquiries about in politics, and many regarded themselves as part of the past Would there be honest judicial proceedings, a global effort to advance goals like reducing carbon especially in cases with political implications? Would emissions, empowering women, or fighting corruption. property rights be secure? In a prescient 1997 article, Jessica T. Mathews predict- Beyond these primarily domestic issues, there was ed that in the future global civil society would be the another series of questions related to individual triggering force behind liberal changes She suggested governments' relations with their neighbors and the that in many cases civil society organizations would rest of the world. The end of the Cold War had brought play a more important role than governments. Her a peace dividend, both financial and psychological, words seemed prescient in light of later events in for all sides. At the time, most assumed that peace Serbia, where student activists organized a campaign would prove durable. But would the general decline that eventually brought about the downfall of President in military budgets hold? Would the new national Slobodan Milotevio in 2000, and in Ukraine, where boundaries that divided the former Soviet Union and young reformers played a pivotal role in ensuring that the former Yugoslavia be sustainable? the 2004 elections were not stolen through fraud. As modern authoritarianism has taken root and ex- In declaring that dictatorships or even authoritarian panded its influence, the answers to these questions methods were destined to succumb to this triad of are increasingly negative. L Freedom in the World 2016 (New York: Freedom House, 2016), htfrpoullfrearInmhrumn.nrginwent/francInm-worldfirea- dom-world-2016. L Ibid. 3. Ibid. & Ceylan Yeginsu, 'Turks Feud Over Change in Education,' New York Times, December 8, 2014, worlrUntinr/arrIngan-nitchnc-nttnman•lanspinp-rlaccnn-As-oart-nfAngitinnal.tiorkkh•valsts html S. Eleanor Albert, 'The Shanghai Cooperation Organization:Council on Foreign Relations, October 14, 2015, httplAvww.c(r.org/ rNina/shanghai•rnrywratinn•nptanisatinn/o1nMR?, 6. 'Freedom in the World at 41; in Freedom in the World 2014 (New York: Freedom House, 2014), httos://freedomhouse.ondsitesi cf./Wit/files/Fr_ 7. 'China's Internet A Giant Cage; Economist, April 6, 2013, was•expected-help-democratisechina-insteada-has-enabled. & Jessica T. Mathews, 'Power Shift; Foreign Affairs (January/February 1997), paaer•shift. wwwireedomhouse.org 9 EFTA00804733 BREAKING DOWN DEMOCRACY: Goals, Strategies, and Methods of Modern Authoritarians Chapter 1 Validating Autocracy through the Ballot A major difference between modern authoritarian systems and traditional dictatorships lies in the role of "We're not perfect. But we do have elections for parliament and head of state. democracy." —Hugo Chavez Twentieth-century dictatorships often dispensed with elections entirely or conducted them under blatantly fraudulent conditions. In the Soviet bloc, elections "Yes, we falsified the last election.... were a pointless ritual in which citizens were pres- In fact, 93.5 percent [of ballots were] sured to go to a polling place and cast ballots for the for President Lukashenka. People Communist Party candidate, the only one permitted to compete. Military and postcolonial dictatorships often say this is not a European result, so canceled elections on spurious "national emergency" we changed it to 86 percent." grounds, or rigged the outcome through crude bal- —Alyaksandr Lukashenka lot-stuffing and open intimidation. At a certain point in the 1980s, however, the strong- net and the expectations of a better-informed public. In men, juntas, and revolutionary councils of the era the most sophisticated authoritarian states, profes- realized that reasonably fair elections could no longer sional political operatives—in Russia they are called be avoided. Sometimes a ruling group understood "political technologists"—work just as hard as their that this would likely lead to an opposition victory. But counterparts in the United States. Their goal, however, usually, the incumbent leaders—and often foreign is not to defeat opposition candidates in a competitive journalists and diplomats—presumed that voters in setting, but rather to organize a system that creates the repressive settings preferred stability to uncertainty illusion of competition while squelching it in reality. and would opt for the reassuring faces of authority. In most countries, elections are largely 'free and fair,' These calculations proved wildly misplaced. Opposi- meaning the playing field is reasonably level, there is an tion parties swept to victory in country after coun- honest tabulation of the ballots, vote buying and ballot try—in Uruguay, Argentina, Nicaragua, South Korea, stuffing do not change the outcome, and independent the Philippines, Poland. The word "stunning" made election observers are allowed to monitor the proceed- a frequent appearance in news accounts, as in the ings. For 2015, Freedom in the World placed the num- stunning rejection of the ruling party in Poland, or the ber of electoral democracies at 125, around 64 percent stunning setback suffered by Chile's Augusto Pinochet of the world's sovereign states.' By historical standards, in a referendum on the continuation of his dicta- this is an impressive figure. Still, there are 70 countries torship. Or, perhaps most astonishing, the stunning that do not qualify as electoral democracies. In all but defeat of Communist Party stalwarts in a number of a few of these settings, elections are indeed held, but Soviet cities in 1990 local elections.' they are either badly flawed or patently dishonest. Elections became a key force behind the wave of de- Yet even in systems where elections are tainted or fixed mocratization that engulfed much of the world during outright, authoritarian leaders often claim legitimacy that decade. Today, the obligation to hold some form of from the ballot box. Of the countries assessed in this multiparty balloting is felt by nearly all governments. study, only China rejects elections as part of the leader- The illusion of pluralism ship's strategy for political control. In Russia, Turkey, Ven- Yet just as with other democratic institutions, modern ezuela, and elsewhere, the leadership invokes victory at authoritarians have mastered the techniques of con- the polls as a mandate for government, including the trol over the electoral process, maintaining political adoption of policies that are in fact deeply unpopular. dominance behind a screen of false diversity. In some authoritarian states, elections are neither free They have adapted in many ways to the age of the inter- nor fair, with heavy manipulation that directly ensures 10 EFTA00804734 Freedom House the ruling party's dominance. But in other settings, elec- There are, of course, examples of elections whose out- tions are held under conditions that are relatively free come resembles the obviously rigged results in total- but effectively unfair. That is, the electoral playing field itarian or junta-like settings. Eurasian presidents such is tilted to favor the incumbents, though the balloting as Azerbaijan's Ilham Aliyev and Belarus's Alyaksandr itself is not fixed and remains somewhat unpredictable. Lukashenka have repeatedly won elections with over In illiberal environments like Hungary and Turkey over 80 percent of the vote, and others have easily broken the past five years, prospects for an opposition victory the 90 percent barrier. The ruling Ethiopian Peoples' are remote, but not out of the question. Even in a qua- Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) won every si-dictatorship like Venezuela, the opposition can score seat in the most recent parliamentary polling.5 impressive victories in parliamentary elections and mo- bilize competitive campaigns for the presidency. However, more sophisticated autocracies try to