EFTA01358017.pdf

Economic and Capital Market Forecasts March/April 2016 GDP Growth 2016 2017 in Currencies Current' 12 Month Forecast 12 Month Return Next 3%• Move World 3.2% 3.6% (March 2017) (Marc, 2017) USA 16% 2.0% EUR vs. USD 1.12 1.05 -6.4% Euroland 1.6% 1.6% USDva. JPY 113.25 120.00 6.0% UK 2.0% 2.1% EUR vs CliF 1O9 1.12 2.6% Japan 1.0% 0.8% GBP vs USO 1.43 1.60 6.2% China 6.0% 6.0% USD vs Calr 8.52 6.90 6.9% Inflation Commodities Current' 12 Month Forecast 12 Month Return 2016 2017 Next 3%. Move % (March 2017) (March 2017) USA (core PCE) 1.6% 1.7% Oil Mm) in USD 39 60 26.9% Euroland 0.3% 1.6% Gold In USD 1220 1100 -9.8% UK 0.6% 1.8% Japan 0.8% 1.8% Equities Current' Dividend NTM NTM EPS 12 Month Forecast 12 Month Return (LTM)? China 1.2% 1.2% Yield Forecast' Forecast' ' '• '• (March 2017) (March 2017) USA (SSP 500) 2037 2.1% 17.38 16.75 123 2060 3.3% Curr Acct Balance Euroland (Euro Sion 50) 2987 4.0% 13.20 13.75 233 3200 11.1% 2016 2017 it: % ce GOP Germany (DAX) 9851 2.9% 12.32 13.25 818 4-+ 10800 9.6% USA -2,7% UK (FTSE 100) 6106 4.1% 15.38 14.50 400 5800 -0.9% Euroland 2.9% 2.8% MSCI Japan (JPY) 833 2.3% 14.42 15.00 60 890 9.2% UK -3.9% -3.6% Asia ex Japan (MSCI In USD) 495 3.0% 12.63 13.00 39 1 500 4.0% Japan 2.8% 2.5% Latin America (MSCI in USD) 2125 3.1% 18.88 17.00 112 1900 -7.5% China 2.6% 2.5% 12 Month For ecast 12 Month Return Sovereign Rates Current' Next 3 • Yield Move' Fiscal Balance (March 2017) (March 2017) 2016 2017 in% 0I GDP USA 1.89% R., 2.00% 1.0% USA -2.8% -2.9% Euroland (German Bund) 0.18% *, 0.36% -1.3% Euroland -i,9% -1.9% UK 1.45% ei• 1.90% -2.0% UK 4.3% -2.6% Japan -0.10% -0.10% -0.1% Japan -6.0% 4.2% China -2.4% -2.5% Current Current 12-Month (Price Credit Yield Next 3%• Move; 12 Month Return Coupon' Spread' Return Estimate) 12 Mo Forecast Barclays U.S. High Yield 6.60% 8.35% 700 -3.2% 3.4% Key Interest Rates current' (Mar 2017) a G81- EM Global Diversified (Local) 6.55% .114.1 B (EM Broad Index) (Hard CurreEMncy)IG USA (Fed funds) 0.25% 0.75-1.00% 405 Euroland (Roll rale) 0.00% 0.00% UK (Repo rate) 0.60% 0.60% Japan (MmIct rate) 0.00% 0.00% Footnotes Macro estimates are according to Deutsche Asset 8 Wealth Management and are as of March 2016. U.S. GDP is 4O over 4O. ' Current as of March 28, 2016 2 LTM stands for last twe€ve months. 3 PIE and EPS forecasts are according to Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management. 4 Direction in sovereign bonds is yield move 5 High yield spread is high yield versus live year Treasury. e Next 3% move in credit is return move Source, FactSet, Deutsche Bank Wealth Management. Deutsche Bank 22 Wealth Management CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0045259 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00191443 EFTA01358017