EFTA01461397.pdf

(Embedded image moved to file: pic22504.gif) Forwarded by Tazia Smith/db/dbcom on 03/14/2014 09:52 AM From: Vanshree Verma/db/dbcom@DBEMEA To: [email protected], Date: 03/14/2014 03:53 AM Subject: Markets opening weaker. Kerry and Lavrov meeting today key I KCP Capital Markets [I) Risk aversion continues from yesterday as we approach the weekend. Nikkei -3.3.%, MICEX (Russia) -4%, DAX futures -1% Commodities have remained relatively stable despite the movements in other markets WTI and Gold (charts below) have hardly reacted There is increasing nervousness ahead of Sunday's referendum in Crimea. G7 leaders said they would not recognize the outcome of the referendum, while Russia has maintained that they were prepared to "mirror" any sanctions There were reports of Russian military "training exercises" along the border yesterday Key events to watch today: 1) Russian Foreign minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secy of State John Kerry meet in London. This is a last-ditch effort to de-escalate the situation 2) Central Bank of Russia meeting today at 9:30 where Bloomberg survey expects no change Swaps curve is pricing in over a 100bp hike. How will the central bank react to FX pressures? ongoing tensions justify a cautious approach into the weekend. Tactically go long lm WTI Calls 101 (Si) and short DAX Russia 5y swap (Embedded image moved to file: pic00787.gif) WTI crude oil future Apr14 (Embedded image moved to file: pic10154.gif) Gold spot price (Embedded image moved to file: pic26834.gif) (Embedded image moved to file: pic29956.gif) vanshree Verma Deutsche Bank AG, Filiale London Global Client Group 105/108 Old Broad St (Pinners Hall), EC2N lEN London, United Kingdom Any proposed ideas are being delivered to you by the Genoa Key Client Partners ("KCP") London desk for discussion purposes only, and do not create any legally binding obligation on the part of Deutsche Bank AG and / or its CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0123427 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00269611 EFTA01461397