EFTA01451376.pdf

Subject: Re: Jeffrey - Mexico -> mBON0 30y look interesting [c] agreed lets do 3m on Tue, Jan 14, 2014 at 4:23 AM, Vinit sahni <[email protected]> wrote: Classification: Confidential Jeffrey - was looking for value in the EM space, post the Pm/5A analysis, started looking at mexico... here is a trade I think makes sense -> buying MBONO 30y unhedged At around 7.5% yield, inflation probably in the 3-4% in the foreseeable future, and u5D/modg likely stable or stronger in real (deflated) terms, think it is good value. The curve is steep. If you look at 10Y10Y UST and 10Y10Y MXN yields, the spread is above 500bp . Say inflation differential is 100bp higher in mex and credit diff is 100bp (t0Y CDS is about 100bp higher in Mexico although Mex has much better debt dyn), this still leaves about 300bp of cushion for real depreciation per year In sum, it seems good value near term mark to market risk is slower pace of implementation of energy reform and a selloff in USTs happy to discuss further if u find interesting... (Embedded image moved to file: pic26559.gif) CNYMXN chart courtesy Nam Gupta (shows relative value in Labour cost between china and Mexico) (Embedded image moved to file: pic13161.gif) (Embedded image moved to file: pic08955.gif) vinit sahni Managing Director I Global Head - Professional Client Group & Key Client Partners capital Markets Group Deutsche Asset & wealth Management 105/108 Old Broad St (Pinners Hall), EC2N lEN London, united Kingdom Tel. +44(20)754-13392 Mobile +447920-138521 Email [email protected] (Embedded image moved to file: pic20035.gif) Any proposed ideas are being delivered to you by the DeAWM Key client Partners ("KCP") London desk for discussion purposes only, and do not create any legally binding obligation on the part of Deutsche Bank AG and / or its affiliates ("DB"). These ideas are for the consideration of the intended recipients of this mail only. The KCP London desk does not provide investment advice. All intended recipients are Professional investors (as defined by MiFID), who understand the strategy, characteristics and risks associated with any ideas proposed herein and will be able to evaluate it CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0 107913 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00254097 EFTA01451376