EFTA01365341.pdf

3 December 2013 US Derivatives Spotlight The figures below show the simulated P/Ls for 36M and 18M ATM options under different volatility and spot change scenarios after one-year has passed. The price sensitivity to spot moves does tend to dominate any volatility P/L. Also, you can see for the 36M trade that if fixed strike vols and spot are unchanged then your option loses a fifth of its value due to time decay (the 18M option loses almost half its value in the same situation). A 5% up move in spot and a 100 bps decline in vol leaves the 36M ATM call option holder elatively flat. Figure 25: Simulated PIL of 36M ATM options after 12M !Figure 26: Simulated PI of 18M ATM options after I2M have pasrxd under different volatility and spot change 'have passed under different volatility and spot change scenarios (all else held the same) iscenarios (all else held the same} %Clangs1n Spot %Champs1n Spot -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 400 -81% -67% -48% -22% 8% 4.00 -99% -91% 493% -23% 39% 4.50 -79% -65% 45% -20% II% -4.50 -98% -90% 46% -21% 40% 4.00 -77% -63% 42% -17% 13% 4.00 -96% -98% -61% -20% 41% -3.50 -76% -60% 40% -Id% 16% -350 -97% -87% -62% -18% 42% -3.00 -74% 49% -37% .11% 19% -3.00 -96% 45% 40% -16% 43% -2.50 -72% -55% -34% -9% 21% -2.50 -96% -84% -58% -14% 44% -2.00 -70% -63% -32% -6% 24% -2.00 -95% 42% -66% -12% 45% -1.50 -68% -62% -29% .3% 27% -1.50 -94% -81% 41% -10% 47% S -1.00 450 -65% -63% 48% 46% -27% .24% -1% 2% 29% 32% T: -1.00 -0.50 92% -79% -78% .61% 49% -8% .6% 49% 19% 5 $ 0.00 41% 43% -21% 5% 35% a 0.00 -91% -76% 47% 4% 51% 1 0.50 1.00 1.50 -69% -57% 42% -38% 49% 44% 8% 10% 38% 10% A 0.50 1.00 -90% -89% -74% -72% 45% 43% .3% -1% 52% 54% -55% -36% -13% 13% 43% 1.50 -88% -71% 41% I% 56% 2.00 43% -31% -11% 16% 46% 2.00 437% -69% -39% 3% 57% 2.50 -50% 41% 4% 19% 48% 2.50 -86% 47% -37% 5% 60% 3.00 -48% -29% -5% 21% 51% 3.00 -81% -66% -35% 7% 60% 3.50 46% -26% -3% 24% 54% 3.50 -83% -64% -33% 9% 62% 4.00 .41% -24% 0% 27% 57% 4.00 .82% -62% -31% 11% 64% 4.50 -41% -21% 3% 29% 59% 4.50 -81% -80% -29% 13% 66% 5.00 .39% -19% 5% 32% 62% 5.00 -79% -69% -27% 15% 67% sand oftaorooson sada Owen an Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 13 CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0056047 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00202231 EFTA01365341