EFTA01449382.pdf

28 February 2013 Exchange Rate Perspectives Deutsche Bank El Figure 13: In EM, the main driver of reserve growth has Figure 14: In EM, the dollar share fell steadily during been intervention (in USD bn) 2002-04 then stabilized 2700 2703 to Total rum., m Ebt ra wr,ut lows, '9'15 2300 3300 70 70 Toni quinsy Omni. — US Sian 1900 1900 so Enos 60 —Total roduabn dims* — Yen 1500 1500 50 — goring 60 11% 1100 — 9nba Frio< 40 --- Otto, Coo news 700 700 90 30 303 300 20 20 ico -100 10 10 1999 2001 2002 2004 2005 2007 2008 2010 2011 0 0 04 02 04 02 04 02 04 02 04 1 99 2000 2002 2003 2005 2006 2008 2009 2011 2012 01 03 01 03 01 03 01 03 01 03 $o.o CO A Reisoch Son CO, EN ‘vs Era ry Figure 15: First active diversification, then leaning Figure 16: China has steadily diversified away from USD against the wind since 2004 (our estimates) 15 •225 90 DliOnsill Oben Leaning us: en 70 against the -175 000 10 ne 700 -125 so 1000 -75 40 Iwo 30 -25 • •Slmts elV50 mOmarXClosevet F 1000 10 Fleiervesm USD br. 25 10 FI 900 0 t0 Camp%a EIJINSO is in tel 75 lut.40 Ott-99 .111.01 Dtt-02 .1urPOd 000.05 Jun-09 Ott-09 .un-10 Dtt-11 Jun.10 BEM sea a ma paha*, - EUR shaatfri to; 01np -10 125 210)122 MOO 243301 20)404 HO 02 1taras now Swam CORR IMF. Ce FX US IV Sta 09 tx Roseith Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 43 CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0104774 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00250958 EFTA01449382