EFTA01460449
EFTA01460450 DataSet-10
EFTA01460451

EFTA01460450.pdf

DataSet-10 1 page 496 words document
P17 V11 V16 D6 V9
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§ New product pipeline appears robust (new iPad, 5 inch iPhone, new Macs) § Potential for China mobile deal and/or larger capital return program § Buy rated; Price target 575 (15% upside from current 500) § TRLA - https://ger.gm.cib.intranet.db.com/ger/document/pdf/0900b8c08762a9f9.pdf § upside potential driven by inventory expansion effort § Favor TRLA over Z given under-monetization and valuation § Buy rated; Price target 51 (18% upside from current 43.06) § INTC - https://ger.gm.cib.intranet.db.com/ger/document/pdf/0900b8c087689a52.pdf § Delivered better Q3 results and profitability remains solid § Profitability and incremental 2014 growth drivers remain underappreciated § Buy rated; Price target 26 (10% upside from current 23.54) § T7X - https://ger.gm.cib.intranet.db.com/ger/document/pdf/0900b8c08766dd14.pdf § Potential upside in NomeGoods; analyst day on October 22nd is possible catalyst § Buy rated; Price target 62 (10% upside from current 56.20) Puerto Rico sales Tax Bond § Cofina sales tax srs 0% '54 yielding 6.83% based on 10/16 average price of 6.456 § Recent moody's downgrade from Aa3 to AZ had more to do with rating discrepancy between sales tax and G.O. bonds than concern about quality of sales tax revenues Euro curve steepening trade (10s/2s) - see attached presentation § Principle-Protected Note - Issuer: JPMorgan, Maturity: S years, underlying: EUR Swap Annual, Spread: EUR 10 year swap rate - EUR 2 year swap rate, Coupon: 4.75% per annum x n/N N = if of days in coupon period, n = # of days where spread is between upper & lower barriers § Upper barrier: 2.5%, Lower barrier: 1.5% (equal to current spot spread), Commission: 1% § Unique monetary environment causes curve steepening during an economic recovery (e.g. Treasury curve has steepened over the last six months) § 5 year forward spread is 65 bps for 105/25 - Market is pricing in curve flattening § In addition to taking a curve steepening position, this note effectively sells volatility, which is currently high on long-term rates EURUSD puts § 6-month ATM (1.3664) EUR put costs 218 bps; break-even is 1.3382 § AWN GIC year-end EUR/USD forecast is 1.31 Longer-Term Themes Rates/Yield: Take advantage of recent rally (10 year Treasury yield has dropped from 2.96% on 9/10 to 2.67% on 10/16) ahead of expectations for rising rate environment. § Interest rate hedging § 5 year swap rate is 1.51%; historical 10-year average is 3.15% § Interest rate swap still makes sense given AWM GIC 12-month Treasury forecast of 3.70% and 5 year forward rate has come down 40 bps from September highs (current: 4.24%) § Floating rate investments § DWS Floating Rate Fund (Ticker: DFRTX) § YTD return of 3.81% vs. index return of 0.79%; 12 month yield: 4.69% § Duration is essentially zero due to LIBOR funding for senior bank loans Global Equities: Bullish (global) equities. Global Markets forecasts S&P to hit 1750 by year-end, driven by increased earnings growth and a recovery in capex. S&P 500 volatility has dropped back to normal levels (vIX closed at CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED. R. GRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0121715 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00267899 EFTA01460450
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EFTA01460450
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DataSet-10
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document
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1

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