📄 Extracted Text (496 words)
§ New product pipeline appears robust (new iPad, 5 inch iPhone,
new Macs)
§ Potential for China mobile deal and/or larger capital return
program
§ Buy rated; Price target 575 (15% upside from current 500)
§ TRLA -
https://ger.gm.cib.intranet.db.com/ger/document/pdf/0900b8c08762a9f9.pdf
§ upside potential driven by inventory expansion effort
§ Favor TRLA over Z given under-monetization and valuation
§ Buy rated; Price target 51 (18% upside from current 43.06)
§ INTC -
https://ger.gm.cib.intranet.db.com/ger/document/pdf/0900b8c087689a52.pdf
§ Delivered better Q3 results and profitability remains solid
§ Profitability and incremental 2014 growth drivers remain
underappreciated
§ Buy rated; Price target 26 (10% upside from current 23.54)
§ T7X -
https://ger.gm.cib.intranet.db.com/ger/document/pdf/0900b8c08766dd14.pdf
§ Potential upside in NomeGoods; analyst day on October 22nd is
possible catalyst
§ Buy rated; Price target 62 (10% upside from current 56.20)
Puerto Rico sales Tax Bond
§ Cofina sales tax srs 0% '54 yielding 6.83% based on 10/16 average price
of 6.456
§ Recent moody's downgrade from Aa3 to AZ had more to do with
rating discrepancy between sales tax and G.O. bonds than
concern about quality of sales tax revenues
Euro curve steepening trade (10s/2s) - see attached presentation
§ Principle-Protected Note - Issuer: JPMorgan, Maturity: S years,
underlying: EUR Swap Annual, Spread: EUR 10 year swap rate - EUR 2 year
swap rate, Coupon: 4.75% per annum x n/N
N = if of days in coupon period, n = # of days where spread is
between upper & lower barriers
§ Upper barrier: 2.5%, Lower barrier: 1.5% (equal to current spot
spread), Commission: 1%
§ Unique monetary environment causes curve steepening during an
economic recovery (e.g. Treasury curve has steepened over the
last six months)
§ 5 year forward spread is 65 bps for 105/25 - Market is pricing
in curve flattening
§ In addition to taking a curve steepening position, this note
effectively sells volatility, which is currently high on
long-term rates
EURUSD puts
§ 6-month ATM (1.3664) EUR put costs 218 bps; break-even is 1.3382
§ AWN GIC year-end EUR/USD forecast is 1.31
Longer-Term Themes
Rates/Yield: Take advantage of recent rally (10 year Treasury yield has
dropped from 2.96% on 9/10 to 2.67% on 10/16) ahead of expectations for rising
rate environment.
§ Interest rate hedging
§ 5 year swap rate is 1.51%; historical 10-year average is 3.15%
§ Interest rate swap still makes sense given AWM GIC
12-month Treasury forecast of 3.70% and 5 year forward
rate has come down 40 bps from September highs (current:
4.24%)
§ Floating rate investments
§ DWS Floating Rate Fund (Ticker: DFRTX)
§ YTD return of 3.81% vs. index return of 0.79%; 12 month
yield: 4.69%
§ Duration is essentially zero due to LIBOR funding for
senior bank loans
Global Equities: Bullish (global) equities. Global Markets forecasts S&P to
hit 1750 by year-end, driven by increased earnings growth and a recovery in
capex. S&P 500 volatility has dropped back to normal levels (vIX closed at
CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED. R. GRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0121715
CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00267899
EFTA01460450
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EFTA01460450
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