EFTA02718555.pdf

From: John Brockman > Sent: Tuesday, May 5, 2015 5:41 AM To: Epstein Jeffrey Subject: Edge Master Class 2015 J.E., I've been waiting to come up with a strong candidate for an EDGE Master =lass on the level of our first such event in 2007, "A Short Course In =hinking About Thinking" with Daniel Kahneman. In fact, I have found it. It is Danny's friend and colleague Philip =etlock, who is prepared to teach "A Short Course In Superforecasting". = Edge Master Class 2015 A SHORT COURSE IN SUPERFORECASTING Philip E. Tetlock Venue: California (to come); Date: Summer 2015 (to come) http://edge.org/edge-master-class-2015 user id: I password: In his Introduction to Tetlock's EDGE piece in 2012, Danny wrote the =ollowing: "Philip Tetlock's 2005 book 'Expert Political Judgment: How Good =s It? How Can We Know?' demonstrated that accurate long-term political =orecasting is, to a good approximation, impossible. The work was a =andmark in social science, and its importance was quickly recognized =nd rewarded in two academic disciplines—political science and =sychology. Perhaps more significantly, the work was recognized in the =ntelligence community, which accepted the challenge of investing =ignificant resources in a search for improved accuracy. The work is =ngoing, important discoveries are being made, and Tetlock gives us a =hance to peek at what is happening. "Tetlock's current message is far more positive than his earlier =ismantling of long-term political forecasting. He focuses on the near =erm, where accurate prediction is possible to some degree, and he takes =n the task of making political predictions as accurate as they can be. =e has successes to report. As he points out in his comments, these =uccesses will be destabilizing to many institutions, in ways both =ultiple and profound. With some confidence, we can predict that another =andmark of applied social science will soon be reached." PHILIP E. TETLOCK is Annenberg University Professor at the University of =ennsylvania (School of Arts and Sciences and Wharton School). He is =uthor of Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?; =13-author (with Dan Gardner) of Superforecasting: The Art & Science of =redicting (forthcoming, September); Co-leader of The Good Judgment =roject. For your information, included at the link please find (a) David =rooks's NYT OpEd column, "Forecasting Fox"; (b) "How To Win At =orecasting", An EDGE Conversation with Philip Tetlock; (c) jacket copy =rom Tetlock's new book, Superforecasting: The Art & Science of =redicting (September); (d) Information regarding the Good Judgment =roject, part of a four-year research study organized as part of a =overnment-sponsored forecasting tournament. As usual, it's already late in the day with regard to booking hotels, =rid making arrangements, so please let me know asap if you are =nterested in attending and, if so, what dates work for you. Your =resence is necessary and important! We usually begin on a Friday with =ocktails/dinner and end Sunday at noon, before lunch. Guests handle =heir own transportation and hotel room/fees, otherwise, you are invited =s a guest of Edge Foundation, Inc. Don't miss this! EFTA_R1_02170967 EFTA02718555 Best, JB AM. John Brockman mobile /40••••••0 evey/wyao.••• Edge Foundation, Inc. 260 Fifth Avenue tel New York, NY 10001 fax: Visit the EDGE Website at: http://edge.org — "Deliciously =reative, the variety astonishes. Intellectual skyrockets of stunning =rilliance. —Denis Dutton, Founding Editor, ARTS & LETTERS DAILY=?xml version=.0" encoding=TF-8"?> <!DOCTYPE plist PUBLIC "-//Apple//DTD PLIST 1.0//EN" "http://www.apple.com/DTDs/PropertyList-1.0.dtd"> <plist version=.0"> <dict> <key>date-last-viewed</key> <integer>0</integer> <key>date-received</key> <integer>1430804456</integer> <key>flags</key> <integer>8590195717</integer> <key>gmail-label-ids</key> <array> <integer>7</integer> <integer>27</integer> </array> <key>remote-id</key> <string>504948</string> </dict> </plist> 2 EFTA_R1_02170968 EFTA02718556