EFTA01449223.pdf

30 July 2013 Exchange Rate Perspectives: FX and the Financial Transaction Tax Figure 13: Equity flows tend to respond with a lag to Figure 14: The dollar is increasingly following net equity market performance flows 230 28 4 76 1.O 470 180 • 24 465 130 • 2.0 460 80 • 455 16 450 30 • 12 445 -20 440 013 435 DSPiece, — 430 -120 Freon %eke 04 V 425 -170 V< —Set 500 OW 00 ConeletIon(6 mo hg)-58% -100 420 777981 83 86878691 93 96 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 99 01 03 OS 07 09 11 13 Swot 00040. MR <At 1,001/1, on> fliearterg!runeI 0 Sant Ot4100A. Sent US Treaty and10000000 Fiwwe (0 Figure IS; Generally inverse link between foreign interest IFiguie 16: The dollar and agency & corp bond inflows in USTs versus US equities SOO foreign 8ufoliates°, US Tenswis 603 803 4.8 - Fe ign Pu Winn 01US him —Corp and agency Borels06 700 100 —Cerise fiords0a i 4.7 460 -460 033 1.1631, 4 00*,..04 603 46 403 920 - no 303 4.6 200 1£0 thi,4 I - 180 44 103 0 43 40 - 40 •"*.asen Ves, .100 -200 42 -100 - ACID 90 92 94 96 98 CO 02 04 06 09 10 12 78 80 fQ 84 86 88 93 92 94 96 98 CO 02 04 06 08 10 12 Source 08 PX Research as us Nasser Smoak Dam:he 800.4 US lent" end wag —LP Canada (CAD bn) Figure 17: The basic balance has generally been in a Figure It: as net FDI outflows continue downtrend since 2007 ea —now Balance 40 110 FOI Outer Used Investments so cArvug) -Quer* Average es) 1 05 —Inwast Cent Investme 40 1 00 40 40 20 - 0.95 0.90 0 — 20 20 MSS -.20 080 40 0.75 0 0 -613 - 070 -80 - 0.65 -20 -20 -100 Dec-90 Dec-S4 Dec-98 Dec-o2 Dec-06 Dec-to oho 4o J Ms -90 Mar-97 roar-98 PAM-02 Mar-06 Mar-IC .10 Saito 08 fx 170.00•Ch ON1?MI ' Sow* 08 FX Rinewc eV How Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 27 CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0104540 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00250724 EFTA01449223