EFTA01458596.pdf

Nap: paateas is a Thy taa ;tour" Inanancat te1119: iiahts Alsat4.1 as paspactiuts Ponta, 404$ Real economic growth Diminishing growth differential Before the financial crisis, emerging markets enjoyed impressively high growth rates. They even prevented the world economy from sliding into recession in the crisis year of 2009. Since 2010, however, the growth differential between developed and emerging markets has been 2 shrinking. Growth in the emerging markets is simultaneously trending downwards. .2 • Dartaxxl mtattit • Erattxx mean Sono.: xtonxteati htanctay Fare 2014 7015 Warla Ecceounx Oaxitt ss o1 Axil 2015 Development of investment rates World (GDP growth) w,,ext tatacony :‘ gamuil ingde<353 7" - icor, r But decelerating emeiging-rnarket growth has beccwra a atxtar cr,.^.‘ers . R %* (2016 F) ol 922 Ills IfWe expect global growth to remain moderate and likely weaker. This reflects two forces: a weaker than expected recovery in advanced economics, 2.0 and a further slowdown in emerging economies. // Chnathrolagarda. ar-aar :!Tn1Intutruxocuu Munotry ruaa.sp<•xh evi *planter 1.2015 I6 2O06 2W2 7008 759 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2515 Emerging markets (GDP growth) • Chtx+4XX ma tatt X Enaulrat atxt•ta P0101X 1:05/ growth :a lbe mriKigthIg marbItI has Sauna: Inuenaaarual Man: 4sory Fund- woad Etamm.:. Qutbot. as at Apnl 2015 !eta thxnly taxa 2010. lint ha!: exolnatite4 to tht r Ifougth 1,owdoup, 4.5 %* (2016 F) OacrtartfrAteahtkractst as at 0:21.11S Low investment efficiency The combination of a high investment rate and worsening growth dynamics can indicate that capital is inefficiently invested in emerging markets. Difficult structural reforms Past performance is not indicative of future returns. are necessary to make investment more efficient. But these ft is not possible to invest directly in an index. No assurance can reforms are painful, making it hard for governments to win be given that any forecast or target will be reached. F = forecast. broad acceptance for them. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models or analyses that may prove to be incorrect. cOV:EW lare, ..44.1.:Ed+0.,4 .>:101Xt 2015 theteso 0 5 CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0118576 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00264760 EFTA01458596