EFTA02683460.pdf

From: Jeffrey M Matusow Sent: Tuesday, April 6, 2010 10:14 PM To: Jeffrey Epstein ([email protected]) Cc: Paul S Barrett Subject: EuroStoxx Dividend Swaps Attachments: Euro Stoxx 50 dividend analysis_06-Apr-10_external.xls Jeffrey, Attached is the index dividend analysis for th= Euro Stoxx 50. The thesis is that the market is significantly =nderestimating dividends in 2011 and 2012. Our analyst expects actu=l dividends to be 20% higher in 2011and 35% higher in 2012 than the =utures market is predicting. Interestingly, even the consensus bear=estimates are 4-12% higher. =OA Bottom-Up Estimates 2009 2010 <=pan style=lont-size:10.0ptfont-family:"Arial","sans-serif"52=11 2012 DaDD 115.7=/span> 123.7 132.3qp =OA 145.2<=:p> IB=S 1 EFTA_R1_02000648 EFTA02683460 115.7 =OA 122.5 134.2 </=d> 150.5 =IPM Analy=t 115.7 118.3 133.5 =51.6 Consensus Bear =115=2E7 107.2 =0A =p class=MsoNormal align=right style=itext-align:right5115.9<=o:p> 126.1 115.7 =OA 111.3 =/td> 111.3 =OD 112.4 =OA Upside / downside potential4=:p> =OD =OA 2010 </=d> 2011 =OA 2012 =OD DaDD 2 EFTA_R1_02000649 EFTA02683461 =OA 11.2% 18.9% </=d> 29.2% =IBES <=td> =OD 10.=% 20.6% =OA 33.9% =OD JPM=/b> =OD 6.3% 19.9%<=p> 34.9%<=:p> Consensus Bear -3.7% 4.1% 12.2% Jeffrey M. Matu=ow JPMorgan =OAPrivate Bank =o:p> 3 EFTA_R1_02000650 EFTA02683462 Work IRS Circular 230 Disclosure: JPMorgan Chase & Co. and i=s affiliates do not provide tax advice. Accordingly, any disc=ssion of U.S. tax matters contained herein (including any attachm=nts) is not intended or written to be used, and cannot be used, in co=nection with the promotion, marketing or recommendation by anyone una=filiated with JPMorgan Chase & Co. of any of the matters addressed=OD herein or for the purpose of avoiding U.S. tax-related penalties=2E =OA This email is confidential and subject to important disclaimer= and conditions including on offers for the purchase or sale of securities= accuracy and completeness of information, viruses, confidentiality, legal=privilege, and legal entity disclaimers, available at http://www.jpmorga=.com/pagesidisclosures/email. 4 EFTA_R1_02000651 EFTA02683463