EFTA01449219.pdf

30 July 2013 Exchange Rate Perspectives: FX and the Financial Transaction Tax G10 FX Valuation Monitor Lines in the Sand" [Figure 1: The euro looks expensive and the dollar cheap Figure 27 The dollar is 9% cheap to fair value 40 130 130 29.0 30 25.8 120 rrr Utt)11A1 120 19.8 pp' 110 110 20 15.0 V ...is 12.0 10.5 Agit 100 100 10 7.0 ••••••.. 90 90 0 80 JP.41)4 1 80 -2.3 70 -10 70 -8.5 -12.3 60 so -20 .1 73 76 78 82 85 86 91 94 97 00 03 08 09 12 NZD AUD CHF CAD EUR NOK GBP SEK USD JPY Said DS PYR•rwal Seim Da aRaikaarch I FIgure 3: EUR/USD: The euro is expensive tltough remains within the 20% threshold ... Fig We 4' LISIX1PV7 The yen is very cheap to fair value 1.6 EUFVUSD — — —• 20% Band r 1.6 350 350 PPP EURUSD 1.4 1.4 300 • 300 ''D.JF^e 250 250 1.2 1.2 A 200 • 200 1.0 1.0 150 150 0.8 0.8 100 100 0.6 0.6 50 73 77 81 85 89 93 97 01 OS 09 13 73 77 81 85 89 93 97 01 05 09 13 San. DSIltReenn Sant LePtIteneich [Figure 5: USD/GBP: GBP is expensive ... 'Figure 6: USD/CHF: as well as CHF 095 095 085 0.85 075 0 75 085 065 055 0 55 045 045 • 035 • USD/G8P 035 .er PPP uSDiG8P 025 0 25 73 77 81 85 89 93 97 01 05 09 13 73 77 81 85 89 93 97 01 05 09 13 Sane DB FXRaseA San*.DO +XRoserch 'Our measure of relative PPP is calculated using long-term averages from Jan-80 to Dec-04 and deflating by monthly CPI differentials. We refer to current spot rates as 'cheap' or 'expensive' with explicit reference to this measure of fair valuation: these statements are not intended in any way to be 'buy' or 'ser recommendations. Page 18 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB,SDNY•0104531 CONFIDENTIAL SONY GM_00250715 EFTA01449219