EFTA01746626.pdf

From: Daniel Sabba Sent: Tuesday, March 3, 2015 9:33 PM To: jeffrey E. Cc: Vahe Stepanian; Ariane Dwyer; Richard Kahn Subject: FW: EOD Commodities Note - 3 Mar Trading update on oil.=Lower vols post Bibi's speech. Prateek Jain Sent: Tuesday, March 03, 2015 4:24 PM Subject: EOD Commodities Note - 3 Mar OIL Another full day in the oil market. BRE led the rall=, up around 2.5%. WTI followed at up 1.5%. The arb gave back some of yeste=day's rally, as products supported BRE a bit. Furthermore, the escal=ting violence in Libya also provided some support, as Islamists took over the Mabrouk oil field. Also, Saudi raised =ts OSPs to Asia significantly by 1.4$, yet also raised to the US by 1$. Th= OSPs to Europe and the Med were more or less unchanged. Although an OSP r=se was expected, I think the magnitude was higher than most thought...In the NSEA, forties diffs were steady;=but rumors of a 3rd VLCC to SK are making rounds. Med diffs wer= also steady for a second day. In other news, Netanyahu addressed the US c=ngress, where he said what you might expect. However, I think that he did hint that in the case that Israel doe=n't like the deal (which it won't), they may act unilaterally.=Of course, this is always a risk, but makes for an interesting couple of w=eks, especially as Congress applauded pretty much everything he said.... In products land, the meeting between USW =nd Shell is not happening tomorrow as initially planned; this might be the=Union's response to news that Shell is running its whole deer park r=finery with non-union employees. US products strengthened...ln Europe, distillate strengthened as FSU exports in Ma=ch from the Baltic and black sea, even though they are up m/o/m, are mainl= in low sulfur. High Sulfur is down 300Kt, which is what Europe is missing=at the moment... Oil Vols &=bsp; &nb=p; =nbsp; WTI (/change) &=bsp; &nb=p; BRE (/change) .I15 &nbs=; =nbsp; 50.40% -3.00% =nbsp; 49=35% -2.20% M15 &nbs=; =nbsp; 46.20% -1.05% =nbsp; &nb=p; 43.40% -0.20% Z15 &=bsp; &nbs=; 32.90% -0.20% = 31.40%&=bsp; -0.25% Z16 &nbs=; &=bsp; 24.85% -0.10% =nbsp; 24=25% -0.15% EFTA_R1_00040431 EFTA01746626 Base Metals 3m Ms &nb=p; =nbsp; dod change&nbs=; support &nbs=; &=bsp; resistance Al $1793 &n=sp; = -$8 &nbs=; &=bsp; $1750 &nb=p; =nbsp; $1800 Cu $5814 &n=sp; = -$91.5 &=bsp; &nb=p; $5800 =nbsp; $6000 Zn $2033 &n=sp; = -$25 &nb=p; = $2030 &n=sp; $215= Ni $13,700 =nbsp; &nb=p; -$155 =nbsp; &n=sp; $13,500 &nb=p; $14,000 Pb $1751 &n=sp; = +$6 =nbsp; &n=sp; $1750 = &n=sp; $1855 Prices crashed just before 9am setting the direction=for the day as the dollar gained strength and the market speculated that t=e Chinese interest cut over the weekend may indicate that weaker economic =ata will be coming out of the top copper consumer as the Chinese central bank would only act before growth t=rgets are announced at the annual leadership meeting this week if the outl=ok was dire. According to a reuters poll the copper oversupply is do=n to 221 kMT from 350 kMT but this is significantly higher than recent estimates after production cuts in Austra=la, Zambia and Chile. KGHM is looking to spend $1.5-$2bn on the phas= 2 development of the Sierra Gorda copper mine in Chile which aims to be c=mpleted by 2019 to meet a " real supply defict" between 2016 and 2020. Chinese copper premiums have risen by="$2.5 to $90-$100, indicating a small pick up in demand but seasonal=y very weak given the return from Chinese New Year. Aluminum broke s=pport but remains hovering around that level so may test it again in coming days. Zimbabwe's Bindure Nickel Co=poration will restart it's 160 kMT/year smelter by December after ra=sing $20m Shanghai Aluminum on warrant stocks are up 1.22% to =2.8 kMT. LME Aluminum on warrant stocks are flat at 1747 kMT S=anghai Copper on warrant stocks are up 5.65% to 60 kMT. LME Copper stocks =re flat at 268 kMT. LME Nickel stocks are down 0.58% to 322 kMT. Copper Vols are down 1% in the mid , Ali Vols are un=h, Nickel Vols are unch, Lead Vols are unch Zinc Vols unch Upcoming Data 3/3- Wards US Total Vehicle Sales- Sury 16.7m, Pr=or 16.56 3/3- Wards US Domestic Vehicle Sales- Sury 13.4m,=Prior 13.31 Regards, Prateek Please=access the link for disclaimer: 2 EFTA_R1_00040432 EFTA01746627 http://globalmarkets.db.com/new/content/3045.html &=bsp; Deutsc=e Bank External Business Conduct Standards can be found at www.DB.com/=oddfrank This communication may contain confidential and/or privileged information. =f you are not the intended recipient (or have received this communication =n error) please notify the sender immediately and destroy this communicati=n. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this communication is strictly forbidde=. Deutsche Bank does not render legal or tax advice, and the information cont=ined in this communication should not be regarded as such. 3 EFTA_R1_00040433 EFTA01746628