EFTA01459738.pdf

Comments from the rpgions EMEA: Signs of slower Eurozone growth One previous pillar of the economic rebound Asia: RBI rates decision story — domestic demand data — now looks less The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) left interest solid. The trend here is not yet 100% clear but rates unchanged at its February 2nd meeting certainly appears less strongly upwards. while reiterating that its stance remains accommodative and that it would continue to German retail sales growth has slowed from provide ample liquidity to the money market. +3.5% YoY as recently as September to +1.4% The RBI also stressed that further rate cuts in December, with its services purchasing would be contingent on continued fiscal managers' index (PMI) falling a full point in consolidation and the expected future path of January. The Ito expectations index has fallen by inflation. -2.2 points since beginning of this year. In Although the RBI maintained its 5% inflation France, consumer spending growth fell from target for 2017, it sees some upside risk to +2.6% YoY in October to +0.3% in December, inflation. The target does not include the with the service PMI moving close to contraction. impact of the impending 7th Pay Commission (a wage revision mechanism) which is likely to In Italy, the services PMI has also fallen further boost inflation. Moreover, a disappointing than expected, with retail sales growth also monsoon, an upturn in crude prices from declining from 3.5% YoY last summer to 1.5% current low levels and currency weakness now. Similar trends are also evident in Spain, could add further upward pressure. the former economic star, where the domestic services PMI has fallen and retail sales growth India's forthcoming FY17 Union Budget, at the has slowed from 6% YoY in October to just 2% in end of February, will be closely watched by the December. In both Southern European countries, RBI and investors for indications as to the their domestic economies are quite important for govemment's intent and ability to revive their equity markets, due to the strong weights of aggregate demand and investment. A bold their respective banking sectors. growth-oriented budget could help the govemment to reassert its reform commitment. For the overall Eurozone, monetary data also The parliamentary session between February show some slowing. Money supply growth (on and May will be also be monitored for the the broad M3 definition) has eased back to 4.7% passage of bills such as the proposed goods YoY in December from around 5.4% last and services tax (GST). summer. What is also important for the ECB is M1 money supply, where YoY growth slowed from 12.2% last summer to 10.7% in December. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Deutsche Bank Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and 2 Wealth Management you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your February 5, 2016 capital may be at risk. CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED. R. GRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0120389 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00266573 EFTA01459738