podesta_email_06396.txt

podesta-emails 1,801 words email

P17 V11 V16 P24 D6

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– attached are the toplines and memo (also pasted below) from our IA primary survey. We have a call scheduled for WED at 1030EST to review. *From:* John Anzalone [mailto:[email protected]] *Sent:* Monday, June 29, 2015 5:28 PM *To:* Oren Shur *Subject:* June IA Trend Poll The race in Iowa is relatively stable. While Hillary Clinton’s popularity and vote share are slightly lower than they were at the beginning of the year, they’re nearly identical to where they were in March. And while Bernie Sanders has added popularity and vote share, there isn’t a big difference between what he’s getting now, and Elizabeth Warren’s vote share in our previous poll; while it looks like Sanders absorbed the Warren vote very quickly, Clinton still leads by over 30 points. While there’s been some erosion in measures of HRC’s honesty, as many of these caucus-goers are following news about her emails and the CGI, most of her traits are still strong and stable. What’s really remarkable about this poll is the narrow range in which her vote moves when we offer more positive and negative information on the candidate field. HRC’s vote stays within a 55-58% range from the beginning of the poll to the end, though voters hear positive about Sanders and O’Malley, positive about Clinton, negative about Clinton, and negative about Sanders. Sanders only ranges from 25-28% throughout the simulated communication, and O’Malley only ranges from 5-7%. It’s possible we’ll see a relatively stable race for the foreseeable future. *The Current Vote* Ballot Tracking *June* *March* *Late February* *Early February* Hillary Clinton 57% 57% 58% 61% Martin O’Malley 5% 1% 1% 1% Lincoln Chafee 1% NA NA NA Bernie Sanders 25% 5% 7% 5% Elizabeth Warren NA 21% 20% 17% Undecided 13% 6% 7% 6% Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders by more than 30 points (57% Clinton / 25% Sanders / 5% O’Malley / 1% Chafee / 13% undecided). Right now Sanders is dominating the non-Clinton vote, and his high name identification (72%) may make it hard for the other challengers to find a lane. Sanders seems to have picked up the Warren vote fairly quickly, but it doesn’t appear that there’s been much growth in the non-Clinton vote since March. Sanders’ current vote share (25%) is very similar to the sum of Sanders + Warren from March (26%), another sign of the relative stability in the race. June 2015 *Total* *Men* *Women* Hillary Clinton 57% 46% 65% Martin O’Malley 5% 7% 3% Lincoln Chafee 1% 1% 1% Bernie Sanders 25% 30% 21% Undecided 13% 15% 11% The real story here is gender, with Clinton holding a 44-point lead over Sanders among women, and a 16-point lead over Sanders among men. Gender appears to be a bigger factor than ideology at this point, with Clinton over 60% among liberal and non-liberal women, and under 50% among liberal and non-liberal men. June 2015 *Total* *Core* *2008 / New* Hillary Clinton 57% 55% 59% Martin O’Malley 5% 5% 4% Lincoln Chafee 1% 1% 1% Bernie Sanders 25% 27% 22% Undecided 13% 12% 13% Clinton leads by 28 points among “core” caucus-goers (those with multiple caucuses in their voting history), and by 37 points among the expansion universe who voted in 2008 only, or are new to the process. We’ve consistently seen a bigger lead for Clinton among the expansion universe than among the core caucus-goers. But in this poll, we’re up a little with the core caucus-goers, and down a little with the expansion universe, so the difference between HRC’s vote share among core (55%) and expansion (59%) caucus-goers is slightly smaller than it was last time (52% core / 61% expansion). *Candidate Support Measures: HRC* Fav / Unfav *June* *March* *Late February* *Early February* Hillary Clinton 85% / 12% 87% / 11% 91% / 7% 92% / 5% Martin O’Malley 33% / 8% N/A N/A 17% / 3% Bernie Sanders 64% / 8% N/A N/A 43% / 5% Clinton currently receives an 85% favorable / 12% unfavorable rating, very similar to her 87% favorable / 11% unfavorable rating in March. Her very favorable rating (50%) is almost unchanged since March (51%), as is her very unfavorable rating (5% June / 6% March). The stability in her popularity is very good news, as is the stability in her job rating as Secretary of State (unchanged since March at 90% approve / 9% disapprove). June 2015 *Total* *Core* *2008 / New* Hillary Clinton 85% / 12% 88% / 10% 84% / 14% Martin O’Malley 33% / 8% 43% / 5% 26% / 10% Bernie Sanders 64% / 8% 74% / 5% 56% / 11% Clinton continues to show strong popularity with both core and expansion voters. She’s at 88% favorable / 10% unfavorable with core caucus-goers, and 84% favorable / 14% unfavorable with the expansion universe. Her vote has consistently been higher with the expansion universe, while her favorable rating has consistently been higher with the core universe. Clinton Attributes (Net 5-7 minus 1-3) *June* *March* *Early Feb* *Net Change since last test* Strong Leader +77 +77 +85 +0 Will fight for people like you +66 +74 -8 Fresh ideas / new approach +60 +56 +4 In touch with the lives of ordinary Americans +55 +54 +61 +1 Is Honest +51 +65 -14 Would hold WS accountable +43 +51 -8 Too political / calculated +19 While our numbers are good on most traits tested, there has been erosion on honesty (-14 since March) and holding Wall Street accountable (-8 since March). And a majority (51%) think HRC is “too political and calculated.” In the context of the negative media barrage we’ve faced, and the entrance of Sanders into the race, it’s not surprising to see erosion on honesty and fighting Wall Street. When we ask voters whether the news they’re hearing about HRC is positive, negative, or mixed, 60% say it’s been mixed. And when we ask what they’ve been hearing about, 27% volunteer something related to the emails, 17% volunteer something related to the CGI, and another 9% volunteer something Benghazi-related. Only 12% volunteer something related to her campaigning in Iowa, and just 7% volunteer something related to our core message on fighting for everyday Americans / middle class / small business / women. But while these news stories are registering with people, general impressions of HRC are still strong. When we ask for the first words that come to mind when they think of Clinton, caucus-goers’ reactions are overwhelmingly positive. Most offer something related to intelligence, strength, or experience, and only 16% volunteer something negative. *Candidate Support Measures: Bernie Sanders* Bernie Sanders’ popularity (64% favorable) and name ID (72%) have grown considerably since June, when fewer than 50% could rate him (43% favorable / 5% unfavorable). But his popularity and name identification aren’t much better than Elizabeth Warren’s were in March (63% favorable / 66% name ID) so we’ve got a recent comparison with a very liberal candidate of similar popularity, and it shouldn’t come as a surprise that Sanders and Warren draw similar vote share in our two most recent polls. Despite his high name identification, Sanders is less defined than HRC. In open-ended questions, only 8% *can’t *come up with a specific association with Hillary Clinton, while 36% *can’t *tell you what comes to mind when they think of Sanders. *Candidate Support Measures: Martin O’Malley* Martin O’Malley has more than doubled his name identification (from 20% to 42%) but it hasn’t translated into vote for him. Most of his growth has come with the core universe (he’s up to 43% favorable with them) but Sanders is still 31 points higher in total favorable with the core universe, and 31 points higher in very favorable, which is making it hard for O’Malley to get traction. *Vote Stability* *The biggest story in this poll is the stability of the vote in informed re-tests*. After positives on Sanders and O’Malley, positive on Clinton, negative on Clinton, and negative on Sanders, the candidates’ vote shares stay highly stable. This is an important caution against over-reacting to incoming attacks, and against attacking Sanders. Vote Dynamics *Current* *BS/MOM POS* *HRC POS* *HRC NEG* *BS NEG* Hillary Clinton 57% 55% 58% 57% 58% O’Malley 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% Lincoln Chafee 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% Bernie Sanders 25% 27% 26% 28% 26% Undecided 13% 11% 9% 8% 8% Despite positive graphs on Sanders and O’Malley, there’s very little change in the first informed vote. This is particularly rough for O’Malley, who starts with much lower name identification than Sanders, and who would expect to get more movement out of a positive informed graph. But O’Malley only goes from 5% to 6% in the informed vote. There’s very little movement in HRC’s vote after we read a positive graph about her, which is to be expected given her high level of definition. The good news is that there’s also very little movement after a battery of negatives against her (each respondent heard 5 items), and her vote share remains at 57%. Even after the HRC negatives, Sanders is only at 28%, suggesting a period of relative stability in the race. *Candidate Negatives* There’s not a lot of intensity to the HRC negatives, which is part of the reason they don’t move the vote against her. They’re bunched up in intensity, with the strongest (TPP) at just 15% much less likely, and most in the 10-12% range in intensity. This is a far cry from the 40% threshold we expect to see in a strong negative that would get traction and affect vote. We shouldn’t over-react to attacks in Iowa. Bernie Sanders’ negatives also test with low intensity, though the two strongest test better than the Clinton negatives. Guns (25% much less likely) and ethanol (23% much less likely) both get moderate traction, but again fall well short of the 40% threshold we usually use to judge a strong negative. Given that the Sanders negatives don’t really move the vote against him, and that his vote doesn’t move much when we test attacks against HRC, there seems to be little margin in going after him right now. — John Anzalone Anzalone Liszt Grove Research 334-387-3121 www.algpolling.com twitter: @AnzaloneLiszt