EFTA01447575.pdf

broad Eurozone from 2015+. 2. In the short term bank asset quality continues to deteriorate. NPL is 35, double the rate of Italy and > 3x that of Spain 3. Greek banks raised eur50bn in 2013 to recapitalise losses from Greek Govt bond PSI (private sector involvement). The sector is now 35-70% state owned. Greek Banks Presently Greek banks rank as some of the least profitable in Europe (ROA <0.5%, ROE 2-2.5%). Looking forward to 2018 they should trade at least in line with European banks. Sector consolidation, NC asset disposal, rapidly declining cost of wholesale funds and efficiency savings will all contribute to that. The Sector comprises Alpha Bank, Eurobank, Nat Bk of Greece and Piraeus. The are no longer distressed and trade broadly in-line with European peers in terms of EPS and TBV multiples. Alpha Bank (ALPHA GA) Of the three, Alpha Bank looks the most interesting. It trades at a discount to the others and has less complex re-structuring. A recent capital raise increased CT1 to 12%. Most analysts prefer Alpha Bank to its peers for these reasons. Al ha Bank Stock Price 4.00 3.00 2.00 t Ml 0.69 0.00 200M ■ Volume 15.089M ■ SMAVG (15) 33.801M 100M 15.089M 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 6O61A Cs1 fc.;16) (alpha Sark 1) Dalt) 27E6C009-26E6C014 Copyright0 2014 5tCOmbe-c t!'ne 4 14 Very recent analyst target prices for Alpha Bank are largely above the current price CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0 102241 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00248425 EFTA01447575