EFTA00408946.pdf

From: Ike Groff Subject: Early Tour 7.11.12 Date: Wed, 11 Jul 2012 10:10:12 +0000 Good Morning European Markets off 0-60 bps (DAX flat, Spain +0.37%, Russia -1.2%) Nikkei -0.08%, HSI +0.12%, China +0.51%, KOSPI -0.17%, ASX -0.04% EUR 1.2278 (+0.23%) JPY 79.29 (+0.18%) AUD 1.0255 (+0.62%) NZD 0.7975 (+0.45%) GBP 1.5568 (+0.31%) US 10yr 1.51% Futures: Dow +27, Nasdaq +4, S&P +3 DXY $83.20 (-19c) Crude $84.81 (+90c) Gold $1576.20 (-$3.50) Silver +0.48% Copper +0.13% The FT<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c4810fd6-caa8-11e1-8872-00144feabdc0.htmlfaxzz20DNWMaA7> discusses the proposed bailout conditions for Spanish banks in which those that receive aid would have to write off preferred shares & subordinated debt (noting that there is - C67 billion in outstanding subordinated/hybrid debt & most of it was sold to retail investors as savings products). Meanwhile, PM Rajoy announced budget measures worth €65B over 2.5 years this morning (VAT will rise to 21% vs 18%). Germany's Constitutional Court ended its hearing on the ESM & fiscal pact yesterday and did not give a date for a ruling but finance minister Schauble says he hopes it will come before the fall. European markets opened lower but have bounced back towards flat on the day mostly on short covering as real buyers seem reluctant to step in post the negative earnings related price action in CMI, AMD, AA, etc yesterday. Burberry kicked off the reporting season in luxury and sales fell short of estimates which is weighing on the rest of the sector (BRBY LN -6.4%). Fed minutes due out later from the most recent meeting in which they extended Twist and will most likely show that some members were pushing for further easing. S&P futures +3 handles = 1338.30 last. ***Mortgage Apps @ 7am, US Trade Balance @ 8:30am*** ***FOMC Minutes released at 2pm, MAR & TXI 11's after close*** ***Allen & Co. annual media conference begins in Sun Valley today*** Burberry Q1 LFL sales light, underlying retail growth slowing, China weak (trading -6.4%) Hhgregg lowers FY13 EPS view (90c-$1.05 from $1.12-$1.27) (video weakness) (trading -20%) Speculation that Abercrombie (ANF) will announce massive share buyback (NY Post<http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/le_preppy_pe_yew_CYG7Xhnanfeq4aFMwu0PN>) Gerresheimer Q2 good, revs driven by plastic systems, FY outlook raised (trading +5.4%) Xstrata EGM to vote on proposed merger with Glencore will be convened on September 7 Getinge Q2 solid, small miss on margin, strong order book with good organic growth (trading +4.3%) Barratt Development Q4 trading update good, showing +ve trends, net debt reduction (trading -1.0%) ICAP 01 accelerate cost savings plan to offset revenue weakness, happy with ests (trading +1.1%) Hays (staffing) trading update slightly ahead of est and better than Michael Page (trading -3.0%) Carrefour: La Tribune speculating that H1 sales could drop by 6% (CA FP trading EFTA00408946 unch) Santander: 2% of new shares (193M) start trading today as part of convertible (trading +0.80%) JD Wetherspoon (pubs) trading update ok with LFL for 11 weeks to July 8 ahead (trading +2.2%) EADS says it no longer sees reaching 30 A380 superjumbo sales in 2012 (trading -3.3%) Britvic profit warning (poor weather & fruit shoot bottle cap at fault) (trading -15.8%) Telefonica (TEF SM) is considering to sell stake of its Latin American subsidiaries (Cinco Dias) Centrotherm (German solar) submits application to start insolvency protection (trading -76%) Moneysupermarket.com H1 update brief but positive for 2Q and as per mgmt expectations Swatch has no plans to cut stake in Hengdeli according to Hong Kong Economic Journal Deposits in Greece's banking system have increased by more than ea billion since govt formed Germany sells E4.15 billion in 10yr bonds (average yield 1.31% vs 1.52% prior) (btc 1.5x) China June passenger car sales beat estimates (+16% to 1.28 million vs estimate 1.27 million) Wen says investment now key to stabilizing China growth (infrastructure stocks outperformed) Leading European Sectors: Telco +0.69%, Real Estate +0.49%, Banks +0.35% Lagging European Sectors: Autos/Parts -0.83%, Construction -0.76%, Media -0.79% OCZ misses estimates - WTW names cfo - VOXX lowers ebidta view VNR increases credit facility - GG cuts output forecast - ADTN eps/sales miss Secondaries (announced/priced): BZH, CYS, PAL (convert), PSEC, GMLP, GLTR LI, ACC, OSUR IPO's (filed/priced): N/A Key Research: UBS initiates AAPL (buy $740pt) and EMC (buy) & downgrades SYT/DUK, BMO downgrades SUI Key Research: Jefferies downgrades HMSY/AGP, Stifel downgrades HGG, Wells initiates VPHM (mp) and REXX (op) Key Research: Susquehanna initiates NXPI (neut), JMP initiates JNPR (mp), Baird downgrades CVGI/MTOR/MOD Key Research: Guggenheim initiates CMA (neut), Stifel initiates LTM (hold), Raja upgrades SKYW, MS downgrades WM Key Research: Longbow cuts USG, Citi downgrades PNW & upgrades WCH GY, Redburn upgrades ITX SM Key Research: UBS upgrades LXS GY, Liberum downgrades LLOY LN, Canaccord downgrades SAB LN Key Research: Berenberg upgrades MTX GY, DB upgrades TFI FP, UBS downgrades LIN GY Reporting Pre-Open: MASC Reporting Post-Close: MAR, MSW, PRXI, TXI EFTA00408947 Economic Data: MBA Mortgage Applications @ 7am, Trade Balance @ 8:30am, Wholesale Inventories @ 10am, FOMC Minutes @ 2pm DOE crude oil inventories @ 10:30am Conferences: SEMICON West 2012 (SF) Analyst/Investor Days: N/A Non-Deal Roadshows: ADS, AIV, BUD, CAE, CAT, CFX, CPST, DSCI, DVN, EXL, FINL, GA, GCA, GTXI, HD, HPQ, HR, ISBC, LZB, MMYT, MRVL, MU, NAV, NKTR, ORCL, OREX, PAA, REIS, REXX, SCVL, SGNT, SJM, SPG, TKOMY, TREE, VPHM Shareholder Meetings: GNVC, FBNK, CVCO, HKAC, SCS, NLST, KUTV Equity/Mixed Shelfs: N/A S&P 600 change (after close July-17): Engility (EGL) to replace Savient Pharmaceuticals (SVNT) Other Newspaper Articles & Stories Barron's positive: Intel (INTC) Barron's<http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424053111904184504577518901661332024.html? mod=BOL_hpp_h ighlight_top> Sub-Zero rates risk freezing Europe's money markets WSJ<http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303292204577518951318321544.html? mg=reno-wsj> Claw is out for JPM executives in CIO office WSJ<http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303292204577519273423202112.html? mg=reno-wsj> Spain to Cede Bank Control WSJ<http://online.wsj.com/article/S810001424052702303567704577519091638685290.html> Blackstone to Shed Office Empire WSJ<http://online.wsj.com/article/S810001424052702303292204577518810593701118.html? mod=ITP_moneyandinvesting_0> Scandal Shakes Peregrine WSJ<http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304022004577518680956762826.html? mod=ITP_pageone_0> EU Leaders Fail to Convince WSJ<http://online.wsj.com/article/S810001424052702303567704577519012017215628.html> Events Overtake Finance Ministers WSJ<http://blogs.wsj.com/brussels/2012/07/10/events-overtake-finance-ministers/? mod=WSJBlog&mod=brussels> Greek Far Right Hangs a Target on Immigrants NYT<http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/11/world/europe/as-golden-dawn-rises-in-greece-anti- immigrant-violence-follows.html> In New Rules to Shine Light on Derivatives, Regulators Also Allow Exemptions NYT<http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/07/10/in-new-rules-to-shine-light-on-derivatives- regulators-also-allow-exemptions/?ref=todayspaper> Berlusconi is planning to run again in 2013 Business Insider<http://www.businessinsider.com/report-berlusconi-is-planning-to-run-again-in-2013- EFTA00408948 2012-7> Romney may name running mate early in election race Reuters<http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/10/us-usa-campaign-romney- idUSBRE86419K20120710> U.S. hedge fund challenges Telus on foreign investment rules Globe and Mail<http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/us-hedge-fund-challenges-telus-on-foreign- investment-rules/article4404999/> German court delays ruling on eurozone fund FT<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c502909e- ca79-11e1-89f8-00144feabdc0.html4axzz206VD8181> More reform needed, IMF warns Italy FT<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/O/c98af38e-ca9e- 11e1-8872-00144feabdc0.htm14axzz2O6VD8iBl> Spanish banks: bailout mechanics FT Lex<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/3/c31e9942-ca8a- 11e1-89f8-00144feabdc0.htm14axzz2O6VD8iBl> Eurozone draws up Spanish aid blueprint FT<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/87579b22-ca33- 11e1-a5e2-00144feabdc0.htm14axzz2O6VD8iBl> Spain pressed to inflict losses on savers FT<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c4810fd6- caa8-11e1-8872-00144feabdc0.html4axzz206VD8iBl> Juncker reappointed to eurozone post FT<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/O/7737562a-ca32- 11e1-a5e2-OOl44feabdcO.html4axzz2O6VD8iBl> Money market funds: on borrowed time FT Lex<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/3/ec539de4- caa3-11e1-89be-00144feabdc0.html4axzz206VD8i81> Italy `may be interested' in using rescue fund The Times<http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/economics/article3471780.ece> US regulator failed to act on its Libor reform plan in 2008 The Times<http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/industries/banking/article3471672.ece> Germans in court battle to block eurozone bailouts Telegraph<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/9390719/Germans- in-court-battle-to-block-eurozone-bailouts.html> Ratings agencies 'no longer trusted' Telegraph<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/9390556/Ratings-agencies-no-longer- trusted.html> Debt crisis: Eurozone unemployment 'could reach 22m' Telegraph<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9390211/Debt-crisis-Eurozone- unemployment-could-reach-22m.html> King warns of eurozone's 'black cloud of uncertainty' Telegraph<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9390361/Debt-crisis-Sir-Meryvn- King-warns-of-eurozones-black-cloud-of-uncertainty.html> UK heads for worst trade deficit in four years Guardian<http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/jul/10/uk-trade-deficit-ons-data> Greece may have to choose between the euro and the radical left Guardian<http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/jul/10/greece-euro-syriza> Banks told extra capital could be key to lighter regulation Independent<http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/banks-told-extra-capital-could- be-key-to-lighter-regulation-7932764.html> Key Events This Week EFTA00408949 Thursday: Treasury Monthly Budget Statement, China Industrial Production/Retail sales/GDP, Euro IP, Italy bond auction, JMP Healthcare Conference (NYC), Earnings (FAST, PGR) Friday: Michigan Confidence, PPI, Earnings (JPM, WFC) (focus on additional details around JPM CIO trading loss) Key Events on the Horizon July 17/18 - Bernanke gives monetary policy reports to Senate & House July 20 - Tentative date for Eurogroup meeting to finalize MoU for Spanish bank recap July 27 - 2012 Olympics Opening Ceremonies in London August 1 - FOMC rate decision, French financial transaction tax (FTT) effective today August 2 - BOE/ECB rate decisions August 20 - Tentative date for ESM to become operational, C3.2 billion Greek state bond held by ECB expires August 23/24/25 - Fed's Annual Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, WY September 7 - Xstrata EGM to vote on Glencore deal November 6 - US Presidential Election Ike Groff 1680 Washington Blvd mailto: Stamford, CT 069011 e• I• (Description: Description: cid:[email protected]) This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential and intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed. 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