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5 February 2016
Focus Europe: Dark clouds, no storm yet
iEuroland Data Monitor
new 02 03 04 01 Aug Sep Oot Nov Dec Jan
code 2015 2015 2015 2018 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2016
Business summand output
Industry
EC industrial cont. EUICEMU -3.2 -3.7 -2.3 -1.9 -3.3 -2.0 -3.2
Headline IR I% pop) EUITEMUM -0.3 0.7 -0.5 -02 0.8 -0
Capacity Utilisation EUUCEMU 81.2 81.1 81.
Construction
EC construction con!. EUCOEMU -24.4 -22.6 'MAIM -22.3 -22.2 -17.6 -17.8 -19.1
StWiCOS
EC services cont EUSCEMU 7.7 10.4 12.13MIll 10.0 12.4 12.3 12.7 12.8 11.6
National Senillneni
Ito GRIFPBUS 108.3 108.3 108. 108.4 108.5 108.2 109.0 108.6 107.3
INSEE INSESYNT 101.4 103.3 102. 103.1 104.3 103.1 101.8 102.3 102.4
Consumer dreiend
EC consumer survey
Relayil Saba 1% 900
New car reg. (sa. % yoyl
EUCCEMU
RSSAEMUM
4.2
1.8
8.8
-7.0
2.7
9.2
-8
-011
10
4.8
0.2
8.1
-7.0
-0.1
10.1
-7.6
-0.2
8.0
-5.9
0.0
11.1
0..
4.7
13.
-8.3
rondo sector
Foreign orders EUICEMU -11.7 -11.9 -H. -12.4 -12.8 •11.4 -12.8 -11.2 -12.3
Exports Cu val. % pop) 3.3 4.1 -3.7 0.9 0.2 1
Impons Ise val.% pop) 6.0 -8. -2.1 0.8 0.2 -0.1
Not trade Ise EUR bn) XTS8E2 60.1 61. 19.2 19.8 19.8 22.
Labour market
Unemployment rate ISO
Change in unemployment
UNIRTEMU 11.0
-255.7
10.
-468.
10.8
-88.0
10.8
-182.0
10.8
-121.0
10.5
-170.0
in
10.
-49.
Employment 1:-. yoyl 1.0 1.all
Prices, wages and costs
Prices l''.'o YOYI
Harmonised CPI ECCPEMUY 0.2 0.1 0 0.1 4.1 0.1 0.1 O.
Core HICP (Eurostat) CPEXEMUY 0.8 0.9 11 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.9 0
Hatmonised PPI PPIXEMU -1.1 -1.9 -2.0 -2.6 .2.13 •24
Oil Price (USD) EUCREIRCIT 61.7 60.2 43. 46.5 47.6 48.4 44.3 38.0 30.7
EURNSO EUR 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
Inflation expectations
EC household survey EUMEMU 2.8 3.3 2.5 2.9 3.0 OA 3.6 3.6 2.3
EC industrial survey EUICEMU -1.3 -2.0 -2.2 -3.5 -2.4 48 -3.2 4.2
Umi labour cost Os my)
Unit labour cost 0.7 0
Labour productivity 0.8 0:1 1.11
Compensation. 1.3 1.$
Hourly labour costs Hal 1.6 1.4
Monty R4 vovl
ECMAM3YY 5.1 5.0 5. 4.9 4.9 5.2 5.0 4.
M3 trend (3m ems) ECMA3MTH 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.
Credit -private ECMSCDXE 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.9 1.2 0.
Credit - public ECMSCDGY 4.3 6.3 75 6.3 7.2 6.9 7.8 7
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CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED. R CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0120380
CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00266564
EFTA01459731
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