EFTA01367380.pdf

31 May 2015 Integrated Oil US Integrated Oils Pi 111171( y GiCiWth Drivers Volume growth will be chiefly driven by managing declines at various mature fields in West Siberia and a handful of moderately-sized project start-ups in the Timan-Pechora (Trebs and Titov), Sakhalin (Arkutun-Dagi), and North Caucasus (Vladimir Filanovski) basins. In total we estimate growth projects to grow-term near-term production of -120 Mb/d (2016 vs. 2014) Primary Risks In our view, the key risk to near-term production growth/sustainment involves mitigating against declines in West Siberia. In our view, improvements in operator execution as well as cheap funding from a weakened Ruble will broadly keep production flat through 2020. Decline Mitigation: Exiting 1O15 development drilling was up 17.5% YoY and the well count increased by 17%, despite the bottoming of the commodity on better execution from operators and tail-winds from cheaper Ruble- denominated spend. Russian oil companies have broadly spoken to flat or modestly higher capital spending in 2015 (in RUB). The Russian government recently granted a Mineral Extraction Tax (MET) break and a reduced Export Duty rate which may ultimately further costs for operators (and incentivize drilling activity). Given the large size of the production base, a shift of 1% in the forecasted decline rate for Russia results in a significant adjustment to our call on US onshore growth (-300 Mb/d in our 2017 call on US onshore growth.) IFigure12& Key Growth Projects, 2014-2020 ICA Produclion 20114=7 20144= d Po714C1 °Pantry Artlor OPeretor WOOS Type Oa. WOO API Seal URA' Peak Prod yr .4040 Prod Pro SewertnetS1i 111) bag West Saida Sirreffner0a Onshatir Ortienram 43 2022 20111 120 122 Sershreboturthomloor 1511 'twos Ent Siberia TrusrAnvich Onshore Orotmen 32 2013 2013 85 112 Throdelskose PAP home AMU SSW UP° Ooshoe• Urdeg O•velofxsoni 42 Ma 20)6 79 63 10,41.«, robs 1541 &Aso DM Siberia PArdrinni41 Onshore Onomem 35 1419 2017 40 21 Parelpeorti (UMW ISO less34) TriarePtclaeo UACCILIConel taareon411) Onshore Oruirtom 21 1939 2017 36 36 Suorralow ISil Rosso C444 Siberia VarActnell Onshore WO,' Opolopneett 41 2016 2013 .12 GO TMs sad Tea. Pill beta TInersaarces lasbeetraho Onehme Unaware 26 2013 2021 29 61 Peruke...an (1P) flu Russo TimasPectou Quer°n nell shell Shit** Omer .. 24 2011 2011 n n koroporkerh0V4 ISO Pan Wet Siberia Gaon rell Now Pan Ocala, Outrun 32 2= 2022 n 139 5410uro1Area PSU Reza Nan Po**owl Pules& Unmeant 32 2C05 2025 rs 8 Swot Datscht eat Mort 44 irer= Page 62 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0058913 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00205097 EFTA01367380