EFTA01459757.pdf

Figure 51: S&P 500 Intrinsic Valuation Model tl p 609 deed ecellm dol 000twptwmrø6 roven MO mi Deiltmtro Byte 201118 8•11800448 ill 18 Dartea% Beta* 20" BE S&P 600 DPS 1143.00 . , ' ettlem ea. eel Mae a 559100, 0a 7o4% •-0.teni• a emeaces ar S&P booraar. 00 YrOrin030144184/40013% 1020 MY 'normal 20106'84P00)DM 543.90 • ',ale% ral ea bee . OOO1 •Ce 1.80% ererea 201<t'El152201a CPS ,7'., ' .^21r. la Shc0,20 - r ' ' 0 CaYemmr 4.00% IMP EMI eceelii40 for Olio eilnimilmall 34% u Lenart* tal NI MO cc* of PAY 009 5:c Gum.0 OAAW «hareem:pro tom 0 E eS 110011CPS dreCteel:e , - i 0'. ea,* ,00. ilia) Ealinehid ROE en relineted S&P Egg Z•re &enema morph 99.414•1109-009 PICO% - Sa 600 aurae. can el nay 7.806 Nomad 20111E I4P 010EN %a 6 oelteleaa Mtll Tam mstra el SW tu, tyr ,,,s,,,,-,, n. )0, ,,,,,,,, i , .eu ' . r • 9 al~GCE 95S% - 6 5% Cce ce re Cre lt"" 9 SU, • ?Mr, 9. non* t4 EPS7reer C et ett reee a • 0 e • 1r 1.3 CC% • .i"101-el it 9 '0 ler% en • Pe, rre,. er. bus rarrea•ner.: " ' ' n . Vsiet ~Odra" oizeetrrerutizmox . i eal.31•P 600 b001.aue pa enea 1720 `re.% ed EPS. r bat Eck • 91.10 31 .41• bar Nana CDS tInormal CriE • OPS groan, . Seeger.. ~raw rhea% . • "13 - Fs. PE • %Erna 3094,990 ROC 219 ESP bra re ea rare a :an c a 2031 550600.niaa sea) a 2:1145 can 2091 . arhah Wan ma tag% rauChe391 I .. .. -E • (ROE ø r ValROE•bedEbel« ca 1B: 55•500 Allrba, nix A l093 And 131215 Se4a0004imm stieie et :010 ted 2900 u Latin ~NO Wan 1.44% . eat5139000 lee aces ol Mel * 2010 Mel 2071 Ir. elee le r led C-E , a% 71/1.• er 7016E Si II (PS 17 7 learad la bear0 apd on saloE 0111. a laa o 1 M% 4 Fer nearer 9,00AP cad . . •.1, xicra 084 name ets3 ROE trim, COE 1 74 II•PIC,I ter tr,le,R a1:010.,4 ,9.700%5103CPS 16 7 ahhal la a:A.10~0 a.2014E OPS011.130 1 06% • T•tel loapann rase it canotal PO 7.60% item:IOiler healePhe PE -I need ChE 102 rere ci Er% rear ECE eeue *MO FPS 20%.01 ran Cps 9... • a, +a .. 20<e DES hi 04.0.0 Pall _Vehe ailed 90.1. Orcer,arn e La reSe es 0% Shah 701a ece.a. < ala Ca en cre 17371 NOIM812016E S&P 500 EPS 58P 500 EPS dtxount model 5 swot to value. 51110.00 5122.00 *125.00. *120.00 5130.00 1) Eslimairt normalised S&P 500 CPS 5.00% 2267 2353 2417 2481 2524 2) Adjust normalved EPS for too forme accounting orwpbty Real 5.25% 2162 2244 2305 2367 2407 3) Estimate • fair long.leem real return on S&P WO ownership (cog 4) 041141)1444 norrtullr** , 00 accounting quality adj. EPS et re* CoE cost of 5.50% 2067 2145 2204 2262 2301 5) Coosider long-teun potential for value added growth opporlimItlet erOurty 5.75% 1980 2055 2111 2157 2205 0.00% 1900 1972 2026 2093 2116 5c...“ Demme Ste Figure 52: S&P 500 EPS Scenarios Saw caw for 2035$ S&P (PS weak global growth and commodities bur &amigo Ix A peasIble ateltrretkire scenario Moderate oil price rebound No slignIflant dl rebound tIgM US labor mkt, 1% If rate 2016 end Global recession and flat US GOP 741es % Profits% 2015 2016 v/v 2013 2016 vh 3015 2014 2015 2016 v/v 3013 2016 v/v Com Ditc 27% 25% 115.5 128 10.8% 115.5 124 7.4% 115.5 125.5 8.7% 115.5 124 7.4% 115.5 115 0.404 Cons Raoles 28% 28% 895 90 5.3% 895 90 53% 85.5 90 5.3% WS 88 2.9% 55.5 83 2.933 Enere 41% 20% 45 50 11.1% 45 25 44a% 05 0 1000% 45 -10 122.2% 45 -20 -144.404 Financials 18% 15% 217 232 6.9% 217 230 6.0% 217 217.5 0.2% 217 232 6.9% 217 210 3.1./1 lieelth Care 20% 20% 159 170 6.9% 159 170 6.9% 159 370 6.9% 159 165 3.8% 339 158 0.6% Inductrah 36% 35% 115 122 6.1% 115 118 2.6% 115 320 4.3% 115 110 4.3% 115 100 13.00 Tech 59% 37% 224 245 9.4% 224 240 7.1% 224 237 5.8% 224 230 2.7% 224 215 3,016 Matenals 49% 40% 30 32 6.7% 30 30 00% 30 50 0.0% 30 27 -10.0% 30 23 -23.23 Telahan 1% OK 32.5 32.5 0.0% 32.5 32.S «Om 32.5 32.5 0.0% 32.5 32 1 5-15 32.5 32 1.93 Vannnes 6% 6% 33.5 34.5 3.0% 33.5 34.5 3.0% 33.5 345 3.0% 33.5 34 1.51. 33.5 34 1.314 S8P 500 31% 25% 1057 1136 7.5% 1057 1094 3.5% 1057 1057 0.0% 1057 1032 24% 1057 950 10.1.16 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. per shore 5115 ~MD s11B 51161 iani sisal sncl $1151 51071 Avg Oa plc* 551 550 551 540 551 535 551 530 551 $25 Avg Euro 1.11 1.10 1.11 1.05 1.11 105 1.11 1.00 1.11 0.95 Avg II rate 0.2% 0.7S% 0.2% 0.60% 0.2% 0.40% 0.2% 0.135% 0.2% 0.20% US UE yr end 5.0% 4.6% 5.0% 4.6% 90% 4.6% 5.0% 4.4% 5.0% 6.5% US GOP 2.4% 2.5% 2.4% --2.014 2.4% - 1.8% 2.4% 2.4% - 0.5% Global GOP 3% 3% 3% - 3.2% 3% 2.5% 3% 1.5% Sane Oserbrapt CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0120424 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00266608 EFTA01459757