Re: Political Platform Conjoint Analysis Proposal

podesta-emails 1,463 words email

P17 V16 D6 P22 P20

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John D. Podesta Chairman Hillary for America Post Office Box 5256 New York, NY 10185-5256 Dear Mr. Podesta, Have you had an opportunity to consider the offer I made in my message to you a few weeks ago? The methodology I described could be used to identify segments of the voting population that perceive Secretary Clinton's positions to be different from her actual positions and which of these issues are most important to these voters. This information could be used to decide what to emphasise in speeches and targeted campaigning. Because I believe that Secretary Clinton is far and away the most qualified candidate running for the U.S. Presidency in 2016 and that it is important for our country that she be elected, I am willing to perform all analyses, summarize the results, and travel to meet with representatives of the Clinton campaign to discuss the results at my own expense if the Clinton campaign collects the necessary data. I will be happy to discuss this issue with representatives of Secretary Clinton's campaign at your convenience. I hope you see potential value in this venture and I look forward to hearing from you. Sincerely, Jim On Tue, Dec 15, 2015 at 3:18 AM, James Cochran <[email protected]> wrote: > Mr. John D. Podesta > Chairman > Hillary for America > Post Office Box 5256 > New York, NY 10185-5256 > > Dear Mr. Podesta, > > I am Professor of Applied Statistics and the Rogers-Spivey Faculty Fellow > with the Culverhouse College of Commerce and Business Administration at > The University of Alabama. One area of my research deals with the use > of conjoint analysis and an algorithm I have developed (in conjunction with > colleagues) to project the winner of a U.S. Presidential election and > determine the optimal platform for the Presidential candidate of either > political party. There are four steps to this research project: > > 1. Use focus groups to determine the critical issues of this campaign > and the potential positions the candidates can assume on each issue. > 2. Conduct a survey of registered voters to gather information > necessary to perform a conjoint analysis. In this survey the issues are > treated as attributes, while various possible positions on an issue are > treated as the levels of the attribute. The survey will also be used to > gather information on the position the respondent perceives each candidate > to hold on each issue, whether the respondent is registered and intends to > vote, an indication of which candidate the respondent intends to vote for, > and an indication of how likely the respondent is to follow through with > his/her intentions. A series of questions regarding their demographics will > also be administered. Note that, because of the structure of the Electoral > College, a sample of reasonable size must be collected from each > battleground state. Use of a preexisting panel would facilitate collection > of such a data set. > 3. Conduct a conjoint analysis of the responses. > 4. Apply the algorithm developed by my colleagues and I to the > estimated part worth utilities in order to project the winner and find the > optimal position that one candidate could assume relative to the other > candidate’s perceived current position. > > This is a unique approach to political platform determination and election > outcome projection. With the results of such an analysis we can: > > - Estimate the outcome (in terms of electoral votes) that will result > given the perceived positions held by the two candidates. > - Estimate which issues are truly important in this election > (nationally and on a state-by-state basis). > - Find the optimal position that one candidate can assume relative to > the other candidate’s current position. For example, given Governor > Romney’s position in 2012 on the issues identified in Step 1, what is the > optimal position that President Obama could have assumed on the same > issues? Furthermore, we can estimate the outcome (in terms of electoral > votes) that would result. > - Determine the states in which the outcome is most uncertain and > identify the key issue(s) in these states. > - Determine the relative strength of each candidate’s platform to > various demographic groups and identify the key issue(s) for these groups. > - Assess the potential viability of a third party candidate. > > This work has been thoroughly reviewed by the academic communities; my > colleagues and I have two articles in this area that have been published in > quality peer-reviewed academic journals: > > - Cochran, J.J., Curry, D.J., Radhakrishnan, R., and Pinnell, J. > (2014) Political Engineering: Optimizing a U.S. Presidential Candidate’s > Platform. *Annals of Operations Research*, 215(1): 63-87. > - Curry, D.J., Cochran, J.J., Radhakrishnan, R., and Pinnell, J. > (2013) Hierarchical Bayesian Prediction Methods in Election Politics: > Introduction and Major Test. *Journal of Political Marketing*, 12(4), > 275-305. > > In addition, an article on our research was featured in the October 2012 > issue of *Significance*, the statistics magazine for the general public > that is jointly published by the Royal Statistical Society and the American > Statistical Association. > > I believe the understanding of the American electorate that could be > gained through an execution of this methodology in 2016 would be invaluable > to Senator Clinton's campaign, and I would be very pleased to work on this > for the campaign because I feel very strongly that i) this is an extremely > important election and ii) Secretary Clinton is unquestionably the best > candidate for President in 2016. > > Mr. Podesta, Is Secretary Clinton's campaign interested in participating > in an execution of this methodology for the 2016 U.S. Presidential > election? I do not have access to the quantity of respondents necessary to > support this work, so I would need the campaign to i) work with me to > design a questionnaire that can be administered online and will yield data > that will support the conjoint analysis and ii) collect the data from > stratified random samples of sufficient size taken online from key states. > I would then i) use the data collected to perform the conjoint analysis and > estimate the part-worths and ii) use my algorithm in conjunction with the > results of the conjoint analysis to perform the relevant analyses. I would > then share all results with Secretary Clinton's campaign in any reasonable > forum. > > If you would like to discuss my proposal further, you may reach me by > e-mail at [email protected] or by telephone at (205) 348-8914 (my > office at The University of Alabama), or I would be happy to call you at a > mutually convenient time. I would also be happy to send you a copy of my > vita to verify my qualifications (I have published over three dozen papers > in academic peer reviewed journals and six popular textbooks in statistics, > operations research, and analytics, I am a Fellow of the American > Statistical Association, and I am a recipient of the American Statistical > Association's Founder's Award - the association's highest honor). I hope > you see potential value in this venture and I look forward to hearing from > you. > > Sincerely, > > Jim > > -- > James J. Cochran > Professor of Applied Statistics and the Rogers-Spivey Faculty Fellow > Editor in Chief, *The Wiley Encyclopedia of Operations Research and > Management Science* > Department of Information Systems, Statistics, and Management Science > Culverhouse College of Commerce and Business Administration > University of Alabama > 347 Alston Hall > P.O. Box 870226 > Tuscaloosa, AL 35487-0226 > (205) 348-8914 > -- James J. Cochran Professor of Applied Statistics and the Rogers-Spivey Faculty Fellow Editor in Chief, *The Wiley Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science* Department of Information Systems, Statistics, and Management Science Culverhouse College of Commerce and Business Administration University of Alabama 347 Alston Hall P.O. Box 870226 Tuscaloosa, AL 35487-0226 (205) 348-8914