EFTA01367361.pdf

31 May 2015 Integrated Oil US Integrated Oils Prinuuy Growth Dricei a Volume growth from 2015-2020 is primarily driven by the continued development of Pre-Salt resource in the deepwater Santos and Campos Basins. In particular, near-term volume growth is expected to come from the start of FPSOs in the Buzios and Lula/Iracema development. Development at Lula- Iracema (the largest driver of growth through 2017) entails a total of 10 FPSOs (8 in Lula, 2 in (raceme). 3 FPSOs are currently in operation and 7 additional FPSOs will be required for development (150 Mb/d of capacity each), 4 of which are replicant FPSOs being constructed in Brazil. Pi Unary Risks Project execution, already problematic in recent years given the combination of technical challenges and local content requirements, have become particularly acute given the collapse in oil price and corruption scandal affecting both Petrobras and the Brazilian government. We see two primary risks: 1. Weak oil price and uncertain investment environment could impact investment in the base (ie. maintenance capital), increasing the underlying decline at the 2.4 MMb/d of current production. We see this risk as slightly less acute than some basins heavily dependent on maintenancefunfill capital spend (ie. UK North Sea/Norway). however every 1% increase in underlying decline above our 8%/yr base case would reduce 2017 production by 40 Mb/d. 2. Delays to FPSO start-ups. We see a high likelihood of material delays in the start-ups of future FPSOs. particularly the 4 replicant FPSOs being constructed in Brazil with targeted start-ups in 2017-2018 (Lula South, Lula North, Lula Extension, and Lula West - P-66, P-67. P-68, P-69). We have risked project starts in proportion to local content requirements (Buzios, Taratuga Verde). assuming an average 2-year delay in targeted first oil. We model an estimated -225 Mb/d of incremental production through 2017 from the arrival of 4 FPSOs through (2 in each 2016 and 2017); the modeled production contribution increases to over 900 Mb/d by 2020. rFigure 76: Key Growth Projects. 2014-2020 Pro:131M UV holed EA Repos Camay Sector Operator 1.334dT3334 DoyStatus API Peak Prod Tr 2016 2017 Prod 2014 2020Prod laa.lraterra latinArnertio Seas into> Petrobras LOW Onstrean II 0339 L022 381 222 44001204 Lavn Amend Brx,, Sant4e. Patrobrz. LOW Onwearn 30 1010 2016 173 171 Pao4.7erra Latn Arnonta BMA Campos Petrobras OW Onspeam 34 2013 1017 96 SS flo-slor 146n Amerce 1642i <Amu!, P•041844 LOW Onstreern 24 1991 2018 79 Pad< UrUnAmena 8.44.1 Campos Chevron DW OnsVeam 10 109 1017 SA Cac0alva Lalm Amerce 1.41:4 Cam 1o% Paleoln. OW OnsVeam 14 2018 2018 32 11 Probable 95.4 tatinAntonoa 8.2411 Santo,. CtueitinGelva0 LOW Covelopmant 14 2016 2019 30 63 Lwa Lri, n America 824.6. 18466 Pelrobens LOW Onstseem 212 1011 2020 28 & Ilovo3 Latin Amen<a Omni Santos reirobras DOW U‘der Dreoloornont ZS 2016 /023 0 300 L44, Arr., ca 8241, 144146 Petrobf ars LOW laden Ce6•ksoment 26 2018 2026 0 SO Soiree Deutsch Barr. 'Woe Weimar Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 43 CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0058894 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00205078 EFTA01367361